Snow and ice coming later this week to the mid-Atlantic

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno talks about the snow and ice threat in the mid-Atlantic later this week.

Transcript

00:00and I'm on the hunt for snow when do we have to worry about snow and who will

00:12have the threat for snow and ice that's the focus of the feed here today I want

00:18to give you some talking points right off the bat here all right in the

00:20Midwest rest of this week for the rest of this week it's cold but I don't think

00:25we're looking at any organized snow there will be some snow and flurries as we

00:30head into the next couple of days but nothing that's organized here's your

00:33next threat and this is coming for the mid-Atlantic as we head on the Friday the

00:38question is is how far can the snow and ice get I'll be answering that as we head

00:44in next couple of minutes here then we do have a clipper coming across the lakes in

00:47the northeast there'll be a little bit of snow with that as we head in early next

00:52week and then I think the next opportunity for more substantial snow

00:56will be as we head into next week all right let me let's talk about the

01:02mid-Atlantic system first here this is coming on Friday and here are the

01:05ingredients that I want to show you how you have this frontal boundary you can

01:09see it now comes into here and then it stalls out so you've got this boundary

01:15that is stalled here across Texas notice what else is going on energy back here

01:22across the intermountain west I'll mark it with an X and we'll circle it there it

01:25is this is why it's been snowing in Denver so what's going to happen is

01:28remember when you have boundaries you have colder air to the north warmer air

01:34to the south and that temperature difference is where storms like to form

01:38but you need something to trigger the storm that's going to be this this is

01:42going to come southeast and that's going to form a storm along the boundary and

01:46then this storm comes to the north the real question is this how much

01:51precipitation can you get back into the colder air so that's been the question

01:57all week now this is we kind of went through yesterday we believe that this

02:02is going to be the threat for the mid-Atlantic and northeast we we thought

02:06there could be a threat on Saturday in the Sunday it's going to be this first

02:10system rounding the bend across the intermountain west let me show you what it

02:14looks like on the modeling here this morning there are some minor

02:17differences but minor differences make huge has huge implications so this is

02:22the piece of energy that we're watching I'm going to show it to you right here so

02:26it's here this morning by later today it's across the four corners area now all of

02:33the modeling and that's what I'm showing you here you're looking at the same

02:36models that I look at every day all of the modeling take this system to the east

02:41northeast but they weaken it across the Ohio Valley and eventually into the

02:46mid-Atlantic and that's why the precipitation in that part of the country

02:51where it's cold enough for snow has been relatively weak now let me show it to

02:56you this is the European watch this takes it across the area and then by the time

03:00we get in the Friday morning there it is it's right in here a little farther

03:04north and boy I tell you what you still see some red with it the darker the

03:07colors the more energy that you have I want to show you the differences and this

03:13is what's going to make the difference in whether let's say Philadelphia gets

03:17snow Washington DC gets snow or if there's just a little bit of snow and ice

03:21across southern Virginia and North Carolina it all depends on the strength of

03:26this system as it moves northeast on Friday so this is the European model let me

03:32show you the American model so I want you to focus in on here this is the

03:36European model this is one o'clock seven o'clock Friday GFS look at the

03:41difference European GFS European GFS European a little stronger just a little

03:47stronger with it so because it's stronger you're getting more upward motion on the

03:53northern side of the storm so you get more precipitation you see that very very

03:59slight but significant European GFS European GFS see the difference see how the

04:05GFS is like stretched it out like a rubber band but the European a little

04:09farther north and you see a little more consolidated and a little stronger right

04:15and then when you look at the surface map you could see the difference this is the

04:20European look at the surface this blue line would be roughly then we call it the

04:26540 line that's roughly the snow Iceland roughly at least the snow line but there

04:32would be some ice with this in northern North Carolina that's the European focus

04:35on the blue look how much the blue goes right in the word Philadelphia right

04:39European GFS European GFS look at the difference European GFS see how much

04:47farther south the GFS is notice that let's go to seven o'clock European snow

04:53tries to get up in the New York City the GFS no why because it's a weaker system so

04:59this is what we're going to be focusing on how strong is this piece of energy

05:04coming in out of the southwest I think it's strong enough that the snow is going

05:09to try to get to Philadelphia I'm not saying it's five six inches could be a

05:12coating to an inch but I think you've got to worry about accumulating snow in this

05:16area let me draw for you right in here I think this is the area to watch for

05:20accumulating snow we're going to keep it south of New York City for now but it's

05:24right in here we'll take it right toward Richmond right in here I think you're

05:27going to get maybe a coating to an inch of snow maybe one to three inches I think

05:31that's that's in the discussion now once you get towards southern parts of

05:35Virginia like Richmond toward Raleigh I think it's snow and sleet that goes over

05:39to the rain there could be a small accumulation this is all on Friday so

05:43let's keep an eye on this all right this is going to be interesting to watch

05:46focus on if you're looking at the models like I do focus in on this piece of

05:52energy this is the key how strong is this energy is it like the European has that

05:57it looks like this or the American it's flatter and weaker I tend to trust the

06:03European so let's keep an eye on that really quickly I want to show you one

06:07other thing to watch for late next week late next week I want you to keep an eye

06:12on this because look at what happens on Thursday look at this another big dip in

06:19the jet stream coming south here now the America model doesn't have this this is

06:23Thursday and Friday this opens up the door for more snow from Kentucky mid-Atlantic

06:31and even into the northeast that would be late in the week we're going to keep an

06:36eye on out on the feed as we go through the rest of this week but for now let's

06:40focus in on the mid-Atlantic Friday into Friday night can the snow get to New York

06:44City maybe but I think from Philadelphia to DC you got to keep an eye on it

06:49and that's the feed

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