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  • 3 hours ago
In this Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno looks ahead to early next week for the northeastern U.S. Cold air is expected to return to the Northeast followed by snow and ice later in the week.
Transcript
00:00We have a little double trouble as we head into next week, but I don't think the storms that we're
00:04tracking are going to be blockbuster storms, but they are going to cause some problems.
00:09And what a difference it's going to feel, what a difference it's going to be from Saturday,
00:16Sunday, and into Monday. Because let me tell you something, the weekend is going to start almost
00:22spring-like across the country. Let me show you what I'm talking about here.
00:26Let's go to this. All right. I want to show you this is our temperatures Saturday afternoon. Look at
00:33the widespread area here. Not only 70s in the southern tier of the United States, but all the
00:39way up into the mid-Atlantic states. Let me zoom in here. So this is Saturday afternoon. You're
00:45pushing 60 in Washington, D.C. Not quite as warm in New York City and Boston, but I think you'll
00:54get
00:54closer to 50 degrees. You can see that right in here. 50 is coming up in the central Pennsylvania,
00:5960 line in the southern Ohio. But look what's going on up in here. This is your cold front,
01:05and this is what's going to come across the area Saturday night. And Saturday night and Sunday,
01:10this is going to cause some problems with some snow and a return of very cold air as we move
01:16into
01:16Sunday and Monday. Let me show you what it looks like here, and you can see where it's coming from.
01:20Let me go back. So you're going to get a chunk of this air that's across northern Alberta, Saskatchewan,
01:26and Manitoba. You can see how cold it is. This is tomorrow morning. Watch it come south. Here it
01:31goes. At least a piece of it. And then by Sunday evening, you have the 32-degree line here all
01:37the
01:37way down to the Pennsylvania and Maryland border. Here it is. A little close up here. So this is Sunday
01:43evening, and the cold air is going to continue to drain south. And take a look at this by Monday
01:48morning. That freezing line is all the way down in the southern parts of Virginia. Now, earlier in the
01:56week, with the fresh injection of cold air and enough strong energy, there was a concern that we
02:02could get a thump of snow here across the mid-Atlantic and northeast. I was skeptical of that,
02:07and I'm even more skeptical now because while you have the fresh injection of cold air, I don't think
02:12you have enough energy for a big storm. And make no mistake, there are two systems that we're going to
02:16track here. Monday, Monday night, and then the second one is going to be Tuesday, Tuesday night.
02:21Now, let me go to my upper air pattern here. And as we go into Monday, you see this little
02:26piece here?
02:27Now, this is also going to produce some snow across the Midwest. And across the Midwest, there's going
02:31to be a few inches of snow here along Interstate 70, north of Kansas City and St. Louis. But even
02:37there,
02:37there's going to be some accumulating snow. And in the Midwest, but this energy is going to be coming
02:42into a very dry air mass. And you'll know that then, and this is looking at the American model,
02:49the European model. You have this Northwest flow here in the Northeast. That tells me that it's
02:55cold, dry air, and it's going to probably overwhelm this moisture and this energy. This is a pretty weak
03:01little impulse here coming across the area. There it goes. And you kind of lose it. You see how it
03:06weekends. This is Sunday night, Monday. Here it goes. This is it here. Go back 12 hours. You see
03:13more yellow. Six hours, you see more yellow with this in the Midwest. Watch as it comes east.
03:18Kind of fizzles out. And I think it's just running into this cold, dry air. The American model,
03:24kind of a little more energy, but that also, see how it fizzles out from downstate Illinois and
03:30Indiana and Kentucky. See how it fizzles out. Now, the European AI, same story. You have that piece
03:37of energy in here, but it comes into that cold, dry air, and you have that Northwest flow aloft. That
03:42tells me there's not going to be a lot of precipitation with this. Now, watch this area of
03:48snow Saturday night, Sunday across interior sections in the Northeast with the frontal boundary.
03:53But this is the American model, which has been the most bullish with the snow. And there it is.
03:58You see how it takes it across Virginia? It doesn't even have it up to the Pennsylvania
04:03turnpike. It has a little period of snow here. This would be Washington, D.C., probably in toward
04:08the Richmond area. That's the American model. This is the European. Virtually nothing. Virtually nothing
04:15Monday. You see that? Now, the European AI, the most aggressive, a little bit of snow here, as far north
04:23is the Pennsylvania turnpike. And that is going to be Monday, Monday night. And, you know, accumulations
04:29are going to be a coating to a couple of inches. Shouldn't be anything more than that. Well, I think
04:35the European's a little underdone with this. The European doesn't have nothing. I don't think the
04:40European AI is right. It's probably a little too far north. So I think the GFS may actually be the
04:47best
04:48compromise. So I think you look for a coating to an inch or two of snow here Monday, Monday night
04:52across northern Virginia, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Richmond, southern Delaware, southern New
04:59Jersey. You can get a coating to an inch or two of snow. All right. Then watch what happens here
05:05moving forward. You see this high pressure system? It's going to leave as we get into Monday night,
05:10Tuesday. This is European. See that? It leaves. So what does that tell you? That means the cold air
05:14is leaving. Now you have another piece of energy coming. And this, I think, is stronger. You see,
05:19because this is going to spit out. Here it comes right in here. This energy in here. This is coming
05:25in out ahead of that trough coming in to the west. So this, I think, is a more meaningful. You
05:31see how
05:32you keep yellow reds in there? You see that going across the Pennsylvania, New York State, Tuesday?
05:37You see that with the American model, too. You see? A little more energy. The European AI, well,
05:44it's not as strong. But I do think that this is a wetter system. However, the snow and ice is
05:51farther
05:51north. And when you look at the modeling with this, sure, you can have a little bit of ice in
05:56the
05:56morning, Tuesday morning around Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia. But it goes over to rain.
06:01The concern is going to be for accumulating snow of a few inches or more, probably north of the New
06:07York State Thruway, probably in here. And the good news is it's probably going to be north of
06:12southeastern New England. But even in southeastern New England, it's north central Pennsylvania.
06:17And, you know, even New York City, Philadelphia, you may have a period of some snow and ice
06:22Tuesday morning that goes over to rain. Same story for the southern Hudson Valley and southeastern New
06:28England, probably a coating to an inch of two snow or two of snow Tuesday morning that goes over to
06:34some rain. But north of the Thruway, northern New England, probably one to three with locally six
06:39inches of snow with this on Tuesday. It's not a big storm, but it is going to be a disruptive
06:44storm
06:45and we'll continue to follow it for you on the feed. Stay with us.
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