The hunt for snow

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at areas of the country that could have snow in the coming days and weeks.

Transcript

00:00And I am on the hunt for snow, and that's what we're going to be covering in the feed today.

00:08Not a lot of snow across the country right now.

00:12There's a few exceptions here and there, but I'm going to take a look at four opportunities for snow across the country in the next two weeks.

00:19I'm not sure if any of them are going to hit, but I do believe as we get toward late November and December,

00:24the chances do start to increase across the plains and parts of the Northeast.

00:31I want to take you to the snowfall right now, and this is what I mean.

00:34Not a lot of snow, even in the western United States.

00:37We're starting to get some snow here in the Sierra.

00:40Here's the Wasatch and the Rockies.

00:42This is below average, though, or below historical average.

00:45Now, the one area that's done pretty well, off to a really good start,

00:48we were talking with our Lincoln Riddle up in northern New York State and northern New England.

00:53And some snow on the ground in the ski resorts right now are pretty happy.

01:00Now, there's two storms we're going to track in the short range.

01:03I don't think there's going to be much snow with these.

01:07You could see them on the satellite here this morning.

01:11Here's our upper low coming in to California.

01:14Now, this is going to come out in the plains and weakens.

01:15It may be a very similar situation to what we had with this storm that brought a little bit of snow to parts of Pennsylvania.

01:23And northern New Jersey this morning, that's exiting.

01:27We're going to keep an eye on that.

01:28This is the storm.

01:30It's a bigger one.

01:31That will be coming in for Thanksgiving week.

01:33So we're going to start there with those two storms to see if there's any snow with them.

01:39Now, at the moment, there's not a lot of cold air.

01:42I mean, it goes without saying, if you don't have any cold air, you're not going to get any snow.

01:47But just like we had on our Wednesday morning, there could be just enough snow in the northern side of these storms for a little bit of snow.

01:58Let me show you the upper air map here.

02:00So this is what we're looking at.

02:01Here are the next two storms, one and two.

02:04Now, right now, all the cold air is up in here.

02:07You see that?

02:08This is what we call a split flow.

02:10We have a southern branch of energy.

02:14That usually has the storms.

02:16The northern branch, which is up here, has the cold.

02:19Now, when these two meet, that's where you can get snow.

02:23And sometimes you can get big snow storms with this kind of a flow.

02:26I don't see anything big.

02:28But let's watch what happens with this piece of energy.

02:31And can we get a little cold air to bleed into this?

02:33I'll show you the upper air map first.

02:35Because as this comes out, this is going to be as we move into Saturday morning.

02:41You see, there's that piece of energy that was in California.

02:45Look how weak it is.

02:46Here's your cold air, by the way.

02:48This piece will bring in cold air into the northeast.

02:50But do you notice right now, here's the cold air.

02:54Here's the storm.

02:55They're kind of separated.

02:56Now, that's the European model.

02:59The American model's a little stronger with this piece of energy right here.

03:04See, it's a little stronger.

03:05And it's close.

03:07It's close.

03:08It's cold air bleeds in.

03:09You could see if this storm's strong enough, you would have to worry about a little snow,

03:13I think, across New York State.

03:14Let me show you the surface map with that.

03:16So here's the European.

03:18Friday into Saturday.

03:19Watch the green.

03:20That's snow.

03:21That's rain.

03:22See how the storm goes offshore Friday into Saturday?

03:25The cold air is way up here.

03:27Will you see the blue lines?

03:28This is cold enough for snow.

03:30All right.

03:30But that stays across northern New York State.

03:32The American model hasn't separated.

03:36But you see that Saturday morning?

03:38You start getting some of the moisture close to the snow.

03:42It's cold enough for snow in New York State, northern New England.

03:45It's a possibility.

03:47Probably not going to happen.

03:49Okay, now we have our storm coming into California.

03:54Let's go back.

03:55Here it is Saturday.

03:56What about this upper low?

03:57What's that going to do?

03:58Well, that's going to be lifting northeast.

04:00We were talking about this over the last couple of days here.

04:03Both modeling shows that cold air is starting to come in as we head in toward the early part

04:11of the week.

04:11You see?

04:12Here it comes.

04:13Cold air.

04:14Here's the storm.

04:15But they're still separated.

04:17So as this storm lifts north, the cold air comes in behind it.

04:22But there's not enough snow, cold air out ahead of it.

04:25So let me show you the surface map here.

04:27Here's the European model.

04:28You see all the green?

04:29This is mostly going to be rain across the Midwest.

04:31You notice that?

04:33The American model does the same.

04:34See, it's all green.

04:36So the odds of getting snow with this storm as we get in the early part of the week are

04:40pretty slim.

04:41I don't think it's going to happen.

04:42There will be some flurries across the Dakotas and the upper Midwest, but not a whole lot

04:47of snow.

04:48What does pique my interest, though, is after Thanksgiving, I'm going to stay with the surface

04:54map here.

04:55Watch as we get in the Friday morning.

04:58Let's say Thursday night.

04:59You see what goes on.

05:00You see all this blue.

05:01All of a sudden, you've got some cold built up here, cold enough for snow.

05:05Now, the question is, do you have a storm here?

05:10You do.

05:10So it's offshore.

05:12And the reason why I'm intrigued, because see, you have a boundary stuck here.

05:17This is Thanksgiving night.

05:19You have a boundary in here.

05:20Well, boundaries are locations where storms can form.

05:24The question is, can you get a storm to form along this boundary, move northeast, and take

05:29advantage of this cold air and produce some snow?

05:31I think there's a chance.

05:34Let me show you why.

05:35And it's interesting.

05:36Let me go back to the upper air map here.

05:37Let's go back to Thanksgiving evening.

05:40Here we go.

05:41Now, watch what's going on.

05:43You've got this dip in the jet stream right here.

05:46Here comes the cold air.

05:47And you also have energy coming on down.

05:48Let me play this forward.

05:51Watch.

05:51See, you've got this piece of energy trying to come across right in here, right here.

05:57This would form the storm.

05:58Now, right now, the trough isn't deep enough.

06:02You see, look at that energy Friday morning in here.

06:05It's not quite deep enough, so the storm would form and stay offshore.

06:09But let's say instead of the trough being like this, let's say it dug a little deeper

06:16and it was like this.

06:20And all of a sudden, this energy's down here.

06:22It comes up and then it moves along that boundary.

06:25That would be Friday morning.

06:27This would be the surface map.

06:28Now, right now, it does have a storm well offshore because the trough's not deep enough.

06:32But what if everything's a little farther deeper with this trough like this, the storm

06:37forms down here, comes up the coast, and then voila, you try to get it across interior

06:42sections of the northeast Friday and Friday night.

06:45Is it going to happen?

06:47I think it's doubtful.

06:48But it is a possibility.

06:50And we're going to watch it on the feed.

06:51I don't know.

06:52So, yeah.

06:52I don't know.

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