Paul Stone's Best Bets: Army vs. Navy, CFP Round One, & LA Bowl

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00:00Welcome back to Newswire here on Sports Grid. The great Paul Stone joins us now to break down

00:04some college football and Paul will be very active over the next couple of weeks getting

00:08some leans in and you know talking about the college football playoff and bowl season Paul

00:13you know before we get to this Army-Navy game I know from a handicapping perspective

00:18this really can be awesome or you could get hurt a little bit this time of the year like no other

00:23just because of the amount of sheer opt-outs there are of the college football schedule and

00:29I'm guessing when these lines come out Paul you have to sort of take that under consideration

00:32here you may end up taking a team that a player opts out a quarterback or some other or you may

00:37be able to get ahead of a line if you have a feeling that some of the best players aren't

00:40going to play in the upcoming bowl season. Yeah I'll tell you historically Craig my approach

00:45as a handicapper has been just to try to get into the marketplace early when the openers come out

00:51attack you know use point spread differentials between my number and the house's number

00:57to try to take advantage of potential opportunities but in today's climate especially when you get to

01:04the bowl games where you have the the potential of not only op-outs but late opt-outs some of them

01:10you don't even know until the ball goes in the air on game day you know you have to tread more lightly

01:16in my opinion and whereas during the season it's still a matter of the number trying to get the best

01:23number really to me during the bowl season is about trying to get the best information

01:28you know it's not it's a big deal during the regular season if it opens at three and a half

01:33and you miss it and you like the favorite and now it's six I'm probably not going to lay six if three

01:39and a half was once available but in the bowl season it's not that big of a deal there'll be more

01:43variance in the results and it's more about information than point spread value.

01:49A lot of work going into Paul for the next couple of weeks here for sure all right so

01:54this is usually one of those games Paul where you just blindly bet the under it's come through so

02:00many times between Army and Navy but they keep setting the number lower and lower every year

02:04this one is 38 and a half Navy is clearly better than Army going into this matchup but

02:10you never know Paul it's almost like the team that has the ball last is the team that usually

02:15covers the spread between these two teams Army and Navy a lot of running obviously in this one

02:21I think the number that I see here is 17 and 2 on the under since 2006 wow that's a fantastic

02:30trend over the last 20 years.

02:34Yeah I think we had a closing total a couple years back maybe like 28 28 and a half it seems like I don't

02:39think I dreamed that but but I think it's about the familiarity you know obviously when Army and Navy

02:44first of all when they face non-service academies you know many of those opposing defenses have

02:51varying degrees of difficulty defending the unique option offense because they only see it once a year

02:58or they maybe only see it once in a blue moon and there's just so much it's unfamiliar there's so

03:04much motion there's so much eye candy it's assignment based football you have to play your keys you have

03:11to stay in your position so those teams sometimes have great difficulty non-service academies

03:18defending that unique option offense but when Army and Navy play one another it's something that they

03:24pretty much see every day in practice there are certainly some unique twists that both throw at

03:30the other but the core principles are the same you look at the quarterbacks and that's what it's all

03:35about in both these attacks Blake Harvath or Navy he surpassed 1,000 yards rushing this year for the

03:41second straight season he's rushed for a total of 1,040 yards so far this regular season six yards a carry

03:49he's thrown for another 1,390 yards 10.6 yards per attempt on the other sideline Army quarterback

03:56Kel Hellams maybe not quite as productive as Harvath but still quite productive now he's rushed for

04:031,078 yards only 4.1 yards per carry and he has been a workhorse down the stretch for the cadets

04:11in their last five games Hellams has averaged 31 carries a game so he is toting the load for sure

04:18you know last year Army looked like clearly the superior team they were favored by six and a half

04:24points they got upset by Navy 31 to 13 this time around we're seeing Navy pretty much today as a

04:31consensus six point favorite the dog in this series in the last 14 meetings 10 and four against the

04:38spread I'm gonna take the underdog I like Army plus six over Navy it'd be a fun game always historical

04:45every uh every year and that's what's on deck this week all right historical amount of coaches bailing

04:51here before the college football playoff James Madison Ole Miss Tulane I mean so many of these are and

04:58that's the matchup you want to look at Paul today Mississippi of course losing Lane Kiffin Tulane

05:03about to lose their head coach in some raw total 56 and a half it's the second game next Saturday

05:10of a Saturday filled with college football playoff games and certainly Ole Miss has had one of the best

05:16offenses in the country virtually unstoppable all season Paul will Tulane do anything to change that

05:23next Saturday you mentioned the fact that both these teams head coaches will be at new schools

05:30at the beginning of next season and one of those coaches Lane Kiffin the former head coach at Ole Miss

05:37already has packed his bags for Baton Rouge not by his own volition he did ask to to be able to remain

05:46on and coach the Rebels in the playoffs but had that request denied by the Ole Miss administration

05:53Ole Miss former defensive coordinator Pete Golding he has been appointed as the permanent head coach

05:59so he's going to lead the Rebels into the playoffs offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss Jr. who's going

06:07to LSU with Kiffin he's been allowed by Kiffin to remain at Ole Miss and call plays for the Rebels

06:14throughout the playoffs which is a huge plus for Ole Miss and along the coaching end of this whole

06:21situation Ole Miss got more good news this past Monday when four assistants who have joined Kiffin

06:29in Baton Rouge came back to Oxford and they're going to coach in the playoff games through you know until

06:35Ole Miss's season is over those being tight ends coach Joe Cox wide receiver coach George McDonnell

06:41quarterback coach Dane Stephens and slot receiver coach Sawyer Jordan so that's a huge bit of good news for Ole Miss

06:49I think it really I don't want to say it totally eliminates the coaching issue but it really helps

06:55the fact that they're not going to have to consolidate a bunch of different responsibilities

06:59among a smaller number of coaches just about everybody with the exception of Kiffin will be on board

07:05they won't have to be using graduate assistants to take more prominent roles and things like that that

07:11sometimes happen in the bowl games so they're going to be pretty much at full tilt I don't think it's going

07:15to affect their performance whatsoever and what concerns me most when handicapping this game

07:21looking at these two teams is just Tulane's ability or inability to defend a SEC offense in the first

07:30meeting between these teams Ole Miss coasted to a 45 to 10 victory they out gained Tulane by almost a

07:37two-to-one margin 548 yards to 282 their quarterback Trinidad Chambliss he had just taken over at quarterback

07:45he came up big against Tulane 307 passing yards 11.4 yards per attempt he rushed for another 112 yards

07:54Tulane this year they gave up 31 points to South Alabama gave up 48 points to Texas San Antonio 32 to

08:02Memphis and of course 45 in that first meeting to Ole Miss I think Ole Miss puts up another 45 against

08:08them maybe even half 100 or more I like Ole Miss minus 17 and a half over Tulane in that first round

08:14playoff game a lot of folks watching Mississippi to see how they perform without Lane Kiffin as the

08:20head coach believe it or not Paul we've got a bowl game coming up this Saturday get a break for a couple

08:25days and then Tuesday is game two Saturday night it is Boise State and Washington and what they're

08:32calling the LA Bowl I know Boise State generally speaking pretty good in bowl games they've had a

08:38tough season though some blowout losses on their schedule Washington got blown out by Oregon to

08:43finish their campaign you get six wins you're in the bowl game this year Paul I mean we got three teams

08:48already opting out of this thing so we're gonna get some unusual spreads I would guess is this any

08:53lean on this one at all between these two teams I'll tell you bowl games Craig so much are about

08:58motivation which team wants to be there more than the other you would think that that Boise might have

09:04the edge in the motivational category based on the fact they have the opportunity to up to upset or

09:11knock off a Big Ten school but I'm just concerned about whether they have the class to play this type

09:16of game they failed at South Florida and Notre Dame against their better two opponents on their

09:21schedule it's going to be a pass for me but I'll definitely be watching all right we'll see you next

09:26week Paul thanks again

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