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00:00Welcome back to Newswire here on SportsGrid. College football semifinals tonight and tomorrow night.
00:04Who better to handicap those games with than Paul Stone has been kind enough to join us all college football season long.
00:11And he continues with that all the way through the national championship.
00:15Check him out at Paul Stone Sports. Also does college basketball as well.
00:19So make sure you check out his programs online there.
00:21Paul, great to have you back here on Newswire. Really appreciated.
00:25And I know that the Hurricanes fans certainly appreciate you.
00:28You pick them, ironically, I think, if I'm not mistaken, to beat Texas A&M.
00:33And then you took them against the spread, against Ohio State, saying that they could win that game too.
00:38And so are you going to do it three times in a row here?
00:41I mean, Miami fans are loving those picks, but certainly they have not gone up against an offense, I don't think, like Mississippi, like they will tonight.
00:50The Canes are three and a half point favorites, but this is a very high total, 52 and a half in this.
00:56The oddsmakers, are they telling us, Paul, that Miami could play well, but that no matter what they do, the Rebs are going to score tonight?
01:04It certainly seems to be with the total that I see here, right?
01:07I tell you, it's such an intriguing matchup, Craig, when you look at how well Miami has been playing on defense.
01:14And going up against an offense in Ole Miss that has perhaps, and no disrespect to Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza,
01:25but Ole Miss perhaps has the hottest quarterback in all of college football in Trinidad Chambliss.
01:30And, man, it's going to be such an intriguing matchup again, seeing Chambliss and Ole Miss' high-octane score quite a few points offense going against Miami's defense,
01:41as good as the Canes played in those first two victories, upset victories over both Texas A&M and Ohio State.
01:48I had been bullish on the Canes in the playoffs, but that's about to change with my recommendation here.
01:55In the first two games, obviously Miami was the underdog.
01:58Now they're wearing the favorites tag, favored by either three-and-a-half or three points.
02:03And you look at it, and not only is it Trinidad Chambliss versus that Miami defense,
02:08I think even more specifically, it's how does Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss respond to that Miami pass rush?
02:15Because Miami's pass rush has been critical to their season-long success,
02:20and especially their success in the last two games.
02:23Akeem Mesidor, 10-and-a-half sacks on the year.
02:33Reuben Bain Jr., not far behind at eight-and-a-half.
02:36A couple of guys who could be Thursday night draft picks in the upcoming April NFL draft.
02:42So how does Ole Miss combat that?
02:45And I think what they're going to do is I think Trinidad Chambliss is going to run the football some tonight.
02:51Early in the year, I think Ole Miss, I'll back up here.
02:55First of all, Ole Miss' starting quarterback to start the year was Austin Simmons,
02:59starts the first two games of this season for the Rebels, injures his ankle.
03:04Then Trinidad Chambliss comes in.
03:06And I think at first, Lane Kiffin, the then Ole Miss coach,
03:11and the Rebels thought that they had a guy in Trinidad Chambliss,
03:14the fairest stage transfer from Division II football.
03:17I think they thought they had more of an athlete than a quarterback.
03:20So he ran a lot early on in the season.
03:23He actually averaged 13-and-a-half carries a game in his first four games,
03:3054 carries in those four games.
03:33In the month of September alone, 62 yards rushing against Arkansas,
03:37112 yards rushing in the first meeting against Tulane, 71 against LSU.
03:43But down the stretch is they found out Trinidad Chambliss is a well-rounded quarterback,
03:48a guy who can play the position.
03:50They found out they had a passer.
03:52So Chambliss, after averaging 13-and-a-half carries in his first four games,
03:57only 6.2 carries in his last five.
04:01So he's not carrying the ball nearly as much.
04:03But tonight he's going to because when a team brings that all-out pass rush,
04:07guys coming from the edge trying to wrap around the tackles
04:10and beat him to the spot and those types of things,
04:13the way to combat that is to run the quarterback
04:16and not just on plays where he uses his escape ability
04:19and scrambling ability to run, but on scripted running plays,
04:24whether it be a quarterback draw or some other type of designed run.
04:28I think they're going to run Trinidad Chambliss.
04:31I think it's going to be they're going to score some points.
04:33Is Ole Miss, I'm not sure Miami's quite revved up enough
04:36to keep up with the Rebels.
04:38I think the Rebels are going to win tonight over Miami,
04:41but I recommend Mississippi plus the points, plus three or plus three-and-a-half,
04:46maybe for half your unit, and then maybe use the other half unit on Ole Miss
04:50at plus money on the money line.
04:53Should be a fun game tonight.
04:55Second half of that game against Georgia was really Chambliss' star game,
05:01I thought, the way that he played, especially down the stretch in that one.
05:04And so Paul says he likes the Rebels tonight against Miami.
05:08Meanwhile, almost identical line on Friday night in the other semifinal matchup, Paul,
05:14between Oregon and Indiana.
05:16The Ducks, who have been in this spot many times before in the old BCS championship,
05:22and Dan Lanning has played for these things.
05:24He knows how it works.
05:25But, I mean, they got the hottest team going right now in all of college football.
05:30Indiana beats Ohio State.
05:31They win last week of the playoff game.
05:33Mendoza, I mean, I don't know what Mendoza is in the future, honestly,
05:37but in college right now, he's, like, perfect.
05:39He's the perfect quarterback.
05:41Doesn't make mistakes, always completing passes.
05:43And then when they get a lead, they just run the ball.
05:46The game ends, Paul.
05:47So what happens tonight in this semifinal game?
05:50Total of 48-and-a-half.
05:52It just seems as though this kid Mendoza's unflappable.
05:56Yeah, I'll tell you, we have two great matchups, Craig, without question.
06:00I mean, the Ole Miss-Miami game has plenty of intrigue.
06:03In this game, a matchup of Big Ten schools, Oregon and Indiana, just great theater.
06:10You know, and you've got two quarterbacks.
06:11You mentioned Fernando Mendoza, but Dante Moore for Oregon.
06:15This is a guy who is, you know, signed with UCLA at a high school as a true freshman in 2023.
06:22I believe he started five games for the Bruins.
06:25Not a real good UCLA team.
06:27So he took his bumps and bruises.
06:29Last year, after transferring to Oregon, he sits behind Dylan Gabriel.
06:33Hardly plays.
06:35So the point I'm really getting to is the fact Dante Moore, although highly recruited, a five-star guy,
06:41he hadn't really played a whole lot of football until this season.
06:44And we've seen that maturation and that development, I think, the second half of the quarterback,
06:49second half of the season, rather.
06:52And, I mean, again, three of these quarterbacks, not to knock Carson Bex, because he's got some talent in his own right.
06:58But, man, you look at these two quarterbacks in the Friday semifinal, Fernando Mendoza,
07:02the Heisman Trophy winner for Indiana, and then Dante Moore for Oregon,
07:06and then also, of course, Ole Miss's Trinidad Chambliss.
07:09So we've got some big-time quarterbacks.
07:11And in this game, you know, this is a rematch of an earlier game played the second Saturday in October
07:17when Indiana travels to Eugene to Austin Stadium to play Oregon as a seven-point underdog.
07:24Oregon actually tied that game early in the fourth quarter.
07:27Brandon Penny Jr. picks off a Fernando Mendoza pass, returns at 35 yards.
07:33The game's tied at 20.
07:35Indiana, though, in true Indiana fashion, they drive 75 yards.
07:39And 12 plays on the ensuing drive, take the lead, ultimately win that game, 30-20.
07:44Looking at that game, man, was Indiana's defense impressive.
07:50In the game, they give up just 267 yards total, allow the Ducks only 4.2 yards per play.
07:57Oregon only 3 of 14 on third down at home against Indiana in that loss.
08:04And the Hoosiers' defense was especially nasty in the second half.
08:08In the second half, the Ducks only 64 total yards on 27 plays, 2.4 yards per play.
08:16So just a huge effort by that Indiana defense.
08:19But now the question is, what does round two look like?
08:23You know, teams make adjustments.
08:24You've got two great coaching staffs here.
08:26So what will this one look like?
08:28Both teams coming off big victories.
08:30Oregon throttled Alabama 38-3 in their quarterfinal matchup.
08:35Oregon blank Texas Tech.
08:37The Red Raiders couldn't move the ball at all.
08:39Oregon wins that game 23-0.
08:41But I really like this Indiana defense.
08:44I think that's going to be the difference.
08:46I like kind of two plays here.
08:48The play that I like the most is going to be the total.
08:50I like this game to go under 48-and-a-half.
08:53And then I like Indiana minus 3-and-a-half.
08:55I just can't fade Eric Signetti.
08:58I like, you know, I'm going to keep going with the Hoosiers until they prove me wrong.
09:02And again, I like the under the best.
09:04And then Indiana as the side.
09:07Yeah, either way, it will be a fun national championship.
09:09And we'll check back in with you, Paul, for that.
09:11Thanks again for coming on Newswire.
09:12I really appreciate it.
09:14Hey, thank you guys.
09:15Good luck and enjoy the semifinal games.
09:17And welcome back to Newswire here on Sports Grid as we begin a weekend of college football
09:23and pro football all the way through Monday.
09:25The first of the extravaganza of games is up next.
09:29It's the University of Miami in the college football semifinal taking on Mississippi as
09:34we bring in Manny Navarro from The Athletic, who is racking up the frequent flyer miles going
09:40all over the country covering the Miami Hurricanes.
09:43Manny, it's great to see you here.
09:45I mean, I think it's fair to say a lot of folks should be surprised with how well the
09:49Hurricanes have played.
09:50First, we go back about a month ago and it didn't look like they were going to get into
09:54the playoff.
09:54And then they did.
09:56And then they go to Texas A&M.
09:57They beat that team.
09:58And then the shocker of all shockers was them taking out the number two team in the country
10:03in Ohio State, a 10-point underdog, essentially, in that game.
10:08And a game where Miami looked like the far superior team.
10:11What a journey it's been.
10:12Yeah, it's really proven to me that these playoffs are all about matchups, right?
10:17And I think Miami exposed Ohio State's weakness, which was their offensive line.
10:22And that first half, getting out to that 14-0 lead was huge.
10:27And they were able to make just enough plays to hold on to pull off the upset.
10:32And credit to Mario Cristobal, who spent four years building this thing, focusing on the
10:37offensive and defensive lines.
10:39And they've got a chance now to win the whole thing.
10:42Yeah.
10:42And I mean, going back to that whole debate over Miami versus Notre Dame, I mean, Miami
10:46beating Notre Dame was the reason that they got in.
10:49But Manny, I think it's fair to say, and it's definitely unusual in this day and age of
10:53not just pro football, but college football as well, to see a team riding a defense to a
10:59potential final and even a championship.
11:02Usually, when you look at it, Manny, it's like, all right, do they put in 30, 40 points
11:05a game?
11:05How many points are they scoring?
11:07Do they have the Heisman winner?
11:08And yes, Indiana in the end may be there.
11:10But the Hurricanes really, Manny, have done it on the strength of that defense.
11:14And look, going into the season, everyone knew that Reuben Bain was a great player, but
11:18it hasn't been just him.
11:19And they're using pick sixes and everything else to get there.
11:22So to me, I don't know if it surprised you, but it does.
11:25Because watching that during the regular season, I didn't see any indication that all of a
11:29sudden, the Hurricanes would have the best defense going in all of college football.
11:34Yeah, credit to Corey Heatherman and just the job he did.
11:37You think back to last season and how bad that defense looked at the end of the year,
11:40blowing a 21-point lead at Syracuse.
11:42But he came in and he really simplified things for a lot of the guys in the secondary.
11:46They did a great job recruiting through the transfer portal to load up in the secondary.
11:52And so they've got the whole thing.
11:54I mean, they've got the whole package, all three layers of that defense playing at an extremely
11:57high level.
11:58And I think the key in all this has been the complementary running game with Mark Fletcher,
12:03because Miami's been able to play a ball possession type game and trim down the amount
12:09of chances their opponents get.
12:11Yeah, and that's definitely part of it.
12:12So let's go back real quick before we go forward to Mississippi.
12:15Let's go back to that game, as you mentioned, against Ohio State, where the Hurricanes basically
12:21took control of the game early on.
12:22And it really required a lot of effort.
12:25And I think that's why, in the end, the Buckeyes' loss is how much effort it took for them to
12:28actually get back in that game.
12:30What did you see from that game that sort of was the game changer that led to their win
12:35in that one?
12:37Yeah, again, I think it was certainly the running game for Miami.
12:40They were 7 of 14 on third down.
12:42They converted, you know, in a lot of tough situations.
12:44Carson Beck didn't throw for a lot of yards, but he was super effective on third down.
12:49Even used his legs one time early in the fourth quarter to convert a third and 11 with a 12-yard
12:56run.
12:56So they're just playing scrappy right now on that side of the football.
13:00And, you know, they're doing so much on the defensive side, obviously producing seven
13:04points, you know, against Texas A&M.
13:06They had takeaways in the red zone, a blocked field goal.
13:09They're just making the most of every opportunity and just shutting other teams down and not allowing
13:15them to sort of get off and run.
13:17Is it fair to say that Beck has played okay, but he's played fantastic when the biggest
13:22moments have come?
13:23It feels like that's been his story so far.
13:26Absolutely.
13:27I think you go back to the SMU game, you know, the interceptions in that game, one of them
13:32was his fault, not both of them.
13:34One of them went off his receiver's hands.
13:36Anyway, he's only had one interception since that game, and that was at the end against
13:40Pittsburgh was kind of a late, late moment deal.
13:42And he's just been really smart with the football, really making sure to protect it and making
13:48the most of it.
13:49And even against Texas A&M, right, they were having trouble throwing into that stiff wind
13:53of like 20 to 30 miles an hour the whole game.
13:56And he went to Miami's offensive coordinator, Shannon Dawson, and said, hey, let's run the
13:59football.
14:00Let's run it right up the gut.
14:01And what happens?
14:02Mark Fletcher rips off that long run, and all of a sudden Miami's in position to win the
14:06game.
14:07Yeah, so I think, you know, wind won't be a factor coming up Thursday night here.
14:11So, look, and I've been to that stadium, and I've seen, you know, some championship
14:17games there.
14:18I saw the Gators beat Ohio State, actually, in that place there, too, in Glendale, Arizona.
14:23It's a dome.
14:25And naturally, the biggest surprise maybe was Miami getting to this point.
14:29But, Manny, as you probably know, the odds makers have decided that they're better than
14:33Mississippi because it is a neutral site game.
14:35And the Hurricanes, it's a small line here, but they are favored against Mississippi going
14:40into the game.
14:41And so, when you look at this matchup, I think it kind of feels very similar to the
14:45last two games.
14:46In order for Miami to win, they're going to have to play defense.
14:49Now, the quality of quarterback maybe in Chambliss for Mississippi may be a little bit
14:55higher than saying at Ohio State, maybe better than the Texas A&M quarterback.
14:59But if history tells us anything over the last two games, and they get pressure on this
15:04kid, it may end up being the same result.
15:06But the challenge is definitely more significant, I would say, going into this one.
15:10Yeah, I think right now, if we were to do the Heisman voting over again, Trinidad Chambliss
15:15would be right there with Fernando Mendoza, especially coming off of that performance
15:19against Georgia, where he was just so evasive when he was pressured.
15:24You know, one stat here to know going into this game, Miami and Ole Miss are number one
15:30and number two in terms of pass protection and allowing the fewest pressures in the country.
15:35So, while Miami has an outstanding defensive line, Ole Miss is right behind Miami when it
15:42comes to protecting the quarterback, number two in the country.
15:45So, this is not going to be an easy challenge for Miami to get to the quarterback.
15:50This is going to be their toughest challenge of the season.
15:52Obviously, they've got a great challenge every single week in practice going up against
15:56Francis Maui Noah and NS Cooper and big Markel Bell, the six-foot-nine, 300-plus-pound left
16:02tackle.
16:02But Ole Miss can protect Trinidad, and he's elusive.
16:06And so, to me, the key to this game will be Miami shutting down Ole Miss' running game
16:10and forcing Chambliss to have to make throws.
16:14Yeah, he was fantastic in that second half.
16:16And at the end of the game against Georgia, and single-handedly, I think, won the game for
16:20them in the end.
16:21And Georgia, of course, had to come back, make it close.
16:24It was a fantastic game.
16:25So, you know, Manny does cover college football here, not just the Hurricanes.
16:28He is, of course, going to be in the house in Glendale to watch the semifinal.
16:32If the Hurricanes win, by the way, Manny doesn't have to travel anywhere because the Hurricanes
16:36would then play for the national championship January the 19th at Hard Rock Stadium, which
16:42is where it is.
16:42But as we sort of expand this conversation, and that aside, because that would just be lucky,
16:46that aside, what do you make of the playoff thus far?
16:49And what do you make of this format and teams playing, like, at neutral sites, having to
16:53travel all over the country?
16:56You know, I'm sure a month ago this was a lot more of a hot topic, but now that Miami's
17:00gotten so far, there's really not a lot of discourse.
17:02It seems like everyone understands they deserve to be in.
17:05What do you think?
17:05Is there a change coming?
17:07Do you think more teams, less teams playing at home, playing on the road?
17:09What do you make of it so far?
17:12Yeah, I think one issue certainly has been travel, right?
17:15Oregon especially.
17:16They had to come all the way to Miami to play in the quarterfinal.
17:19They've got to fly to Atlanta this week to go play in the Peach Bowl.
17:25And if they win and they beat Indiana, which I know they're the underdog in that game, they're
17:29going to have to fly all the way back to Miami again to play in the national championship.
17:33I think something is going to happen in regards to having more games played on campuses.
17:39And I also think the field will probably expand to 16 teams.
17:42But look, the College Football Playoff Committee and everybody behind the scenes discussing
17:47this, including the commissioners, have a lot more work to do, I think, before they
17:50get to a resolution they can all agree upon.
17:53Yeah, for sure.
17:54All right.
17:54So, Manny, in the end, I know that partially covering the Hurricanes makes you believe
18:00that you'd like to see them in the national championship.
18:03I think I understand that.
18:04Everybody in South Florida would, too.
18:06Do you anticipate a close game in this one?
18:08Do you think the line indicates that?
18:10Yeah, I picked Miami to win this game 31-30.
18:14They're going to have to score points to beat Ole Miss.
18:16Ole Miss scores against everybody.
18:18Like I said, they play a super high-paced offense.
18:20So, I think Miami will prevail.
18:22They're 0-4 all-time at the Fiesta Bowl.
18:24But I think they've got the talent on both sides of the line to survive.
18:29No fatigues in this one.
18:31See that, Manny.
18:32Thanks again for coming on the show.
18:33Really appreciate it.
18:34Enjoy the game.
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