NCAAF Week 9: Ranked Matchups, Best Bets, and Predictions

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00:00And that includes in college football.

00:02That is also a 12 o'clock start on a Saturday afternoon between SMU and

00:06Wake Forest and an ACC tilt.

00:08I look at this look ahead line, Joe, from Fandle.

00:10It was telling me close to a touchdown.

00:12I look at it now, Fandle.

00:13It's two and a half, a big line drop in a total.

00:16Listen, a 53 and a half.

00:18SMU Wake Forest.

00:19The spread line for this, Joe, is what?

00:22Well, it's funny, Donnie, because this one opened up four,

00:25four and a half for the look ahead and SMU.

00:28And you can start to see the Wake Forest money has been steady.

00:32Two things to know.

00:33Number one, this is not the SMU team that made the postseason last year.

00:39This is a very mediocre SMU team that now has to go on the road for a second time

00:46and is taking on a Wake Forest team that is coming off a bye, Donnie.

00:50And that is maybe one of the most underrated defenses in the country here.

00:55I agree with the market move.

00:57It's been one of my favorite bets.

00:59I bet it early in the week.

01:00I think Wake Forest rolls in this one.

01:03I think the wrong team was favored.

01:04And I think the market is behind me on this one.

01:07How about that?

01:08Is the market going to be behind you in this next game here, Joe?

01:103.30 down in the SEC in the Palmetto State.

01:13That's Alabama and South Carolina.

01:16The Fandle, looking at Fandle right now, they opened up around two touchdowns, Joe,

01:19dipping a little bit to 11 and a half.

01:21And a total sitting at 47 and a half.

01:23Bama on the road in SEC territory.

01:25Desperate need for a victory here for South Carolina in Beamer Ball.

01:29Does South Carolina hang in this one or is it Alabama?

01:32What's the spread line here?

01:33Talked to one of my friends in the risk room yesterday.

01:38And he said it has been all sharp money on South Carolina this week.

01:43It's been all, which explains the move from two touchdowns now down to 12 and a half.

01:49They are expecting, you know, public money to come back in here before kickoff for Alabama.

01:55It usually does.

01:56But there is a clear pros versus Joe's in this one.

02:00The pros don't think Alabama.

02:02And when you think about it, right, look at who Alabama has just had to play here.

02:06I mean, we're talking about emotional wins.

02:08They had to go to Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee.

02:11No bye week here.

02:13And now all of a sudden, now they got to go on the road to South Carolina here.

02:18I think the pros are thinking maybe a little bit of a letdown.

02:21Sure, they should win, Donnie.

02:23But sure, they should have beat Florida State at Don Campbell, too.

02:26The first game of the year.

02:27And that didn't work out.

02:28So it doesn't shock me that we're getting this line movement right now.

02:32Ten years ago, we were introduced to the meme that's called

02:35Surrender Cobra, Michigan and Michigan State.

02:39Remember that?

02:40Hey, I just got to punt this football away.

02:41We'll be just fine.

02:42Oh, no.

02:43He dropped the snap.

02:44Michigan State's running down the football field.

02:46Touchdown.

02:47No time left.

02:48Michigan State wins.

02:49Can they pull off the upset in this one?

02:51Why?

02:51Because now we're seeing live movement over 14 points here

02:54as a favorite for the Michigan Wolverines against the Spartans

02:57and a total 47 and a half.

02:59Will it be Surrender Cobra in this situation again?

03:02Or Michigan rolls easy.

03:03What's the spread line here?

03:05Yeah.

03:05Michigan State is awful.

03:07I mean, absolutely awful.

03:09But it's another one of these big brother, little brother rivalry, right?

03:13Bragging rights for the state of Michigan.

03:17Now, usually in these kinds of games, Donnie, we expect, at least I,

03:21usually like to look at the underdog here because they have a little

03:24something more to prove.

03:25But the market is not seeing it that way.

03:27I mean, they opened this thing up and it makes all the sense of the world

03:31because Michigan State can't stop anybody.

03:35They've allowed at least 38 points in each of their last three games.

03:39They're averaging their defense, giving up almost 40 points in Big Ten games.

03:44Michigan is not playing around here.

03:46They have little room for error, which makes sense as to why it is that we are

03:50getting the kind of money.

03:51And I think this is going to continue to go higher.

03:53So, if you like Michigan, get it sooner rather than later.

03:57Let's get back to the gridiron on Saturday afternoon in the SEC.

04:01The SEC has been tremendous this year, Joe.

04:03Missouri and Vanderbilt.

04:05Vandy as a favorite over Missouri with a total 53 and a half.

04:09Vandy now, a top 10 football program expected to win these type of games.

04:14Heck, Vandy just beat LSU last week.

04:16Can they beat another top 20 team at home in Nashville?

04:20Yeah, it's kind of crazy, right?

04:23I mean, two top 25 teams in the SEC battling six and one, Donnie.

04:28Two and a half is an interesting line.

04:31This feels to me like a game where whoever is going to have the ball last

04:36is going to have an opportunity to walk off a winner here.

04:40I love what I've seen from Mizzou.

04:43They're a very well-coached team.

04:45Clark Lee has done an amazing job at Vanderbilt.

04:49So, which one of these teams can come out on top?

04:53I think it is a true coin flip game.

04:56But if I had to choose, I might be looking to back the home team here

05:01and lay the two and a half.

05:02I think Vandy, they got it going right now.

05:06Hard to believe, Donnie, but, you know,

05:08Vanderbilt is the favorite in this spot to win.

05:11It's kind of crazy.

05:12Let's go, Diego.

05:13Keep rolling.

05:14Get Vandy in the football playoff.

05:16Oh, my goodness.

05:17You're paying kids now.

05:18And Vandy's good?

05:19Imagine that.

05:20Ole Miss and Oklahoma.

05:22Mateer back on his home soil.

05:23Five and a half point favorite over Ole Miss.

05:25Still seems weird to say this is an SEC tussle,

05:28but, man, I love the SEC.

05:30Ole Miss on the road at OU.

05:31What happens here?

05:33Well, the problem is, I mean,

05:34you have an Ole Miss team that they live or die

05:37by being able to make big plays offensively, Donnie, right?

05:41Yeah.

05:41That's not what that defensive OU is going to allow you to do.

05:46So can they grind out a win?

05:48I have my doubts because that's what Brent Venables and OU are going to force you to do.

05:54It's not like they have the best offense, Ole Miss, on the field.

05:58But that defensive OU is heads and tails above anything that they've seen so far.

06:04Let's get to this next one here.

06:05Skip down a little bit.

06:06UCLA and Indiana.

06:07Kurt Cignetti's like, you know what?

06:08We're playing a 3-0 football team right now.

06:11And that's the way it feels.

06:12UCLA regenerated after firing their head coach.

06:15A total of 53-1.

06:16Indiana favored by 25-1.

06:18If they can stomp you out, they will.

06:20But this new look UCLA team,

06:23which I'm not so sure they're 6-1 at this point,

06:26but certainly we could play that out.

06:27And Indiana's 3-4.

06:29How about that?

06:29A 3-4 team, number two in the country, Joe.

06:32What gives?

06:33One of the best 3-4 teams you'll ever see play, Donny College football.

06:38This number is big, but I'll tell you this.

06:41Cignetti is a guy that over the years,

06:44laying this kind of numbers, he has had no problem.

06:48I mean, no problem covering here

06:50because he doesn't take his foot off the gas.

06:52So puncher's chance.

06:54That's what I'll give UCLA in here to stay within this number.

06:58By the way, I was annoyed with Indiana last year.

07:00I think I'm buying into Indiana.

07:01Like, I like what Cignetti stands for.

07:03Like, I'm going to tell you like it is.

07:05I'm going to blow you out on the football field.

07:06Then I'm going to tell you about blowing it out.

07:08And if you don't know about me blowing you out,

07:10go ahead and Google me and watch me blow out my next opponent here.

07:13Joe, you can go baseball tonight.

07:21You can go hockey.

07:23You can go NBA.

07:24You can tee the people up for a play that's coming this weekend here in the NFL.

07:28But I got a feeling you're serving up some football tonight,

07:33and it's not the NFL that we're talking about.

07:35No, it is not, Donny.

07:37And on Friday, we've got a pretty good role here in college football.

07:42Love these Friday night games.

07:44And I got one game here that we talked about all week in the spread lines,

07:48and I was wondering if there was ever going to be any buyback here on Cal.

07:52And there has not been.

07:54It's only been Virginia Tech money at home here tonight in Blacksburg,

07:59taking on the Cal Bears,

08:01who also played last Friday against Bill Belichick's North Carolina team.

08:06And why?

08:07Bill Belichick had that game won until, of course,

08:10his running back fumbled it into the end zone from the one-yard line,

08:13and Cal recovered it from there.

08:16But I think that's exactly what Cal needed to be able to get things going

08:20in the right direction here.

08:23Listen, Justin Wilcox, one of my favorite coaches as an underdog,

08:26the guy has been phenomenal,

08:29especially getting as many now.

08:31This game opened up four and a half, four, and now we're seeing sixes.

08:35We're talking about a Hokies team that has one of the worst defenses

08:39in all of college football, especially against the pass.

08:43I like Cal.

08:44Wilcox covers these games as a dog at a 65% clip.

08:48I will take the six, six and a half points here with the Cal Bears.

08:52Love the young quarterback.

08:54I don't think Virginia Tech should be laying this price against anybody,

08:58especially against a coach who loves being the underdog

09:02and delivers winning tickets.

09:04I'll take the Cal and the points here.

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