00:00Welcome back to Newswire here on Sports Grid. Always great to have Paul Stone here with us on a Thursday, giving his opinions out on college football.
00:07And of course, you can follow him on social media as well as his website, Paul Stone Sports.
00:12Paul, great to have you back here on Newswire. Should be a lot of fun and going over some of the games.
00:17We had some big news in college football. Maybe we'll get to that here at the end and get your opinion on LSU looking for a new head coach in addition to some other teams as well.
00:25But the Southeastern Conference rolls on and Saturday night it rolls on to Rocky Top, where Tennessee still on the outside looking in of that big SEC chase.
00:35Man, this would go a long way for them. They're three and a half point favorites at home against the Sooners who are coming off a home loss at Norman, which is always kind of rare.
00:44Total of 55 and a half. We know the Vols can sling it and they can score points. Can Oklahoma match them in this Saturday night showdown?
00:53Well, I'm not sure that they can, Craig. You know, when I look at this Oklahoma team, I see a team that perhaps did its best work early.
01:02I think they're playing with a quarterback who's at something less than 100 percent.
01:07And in hindsight, the Sooners, they ascended all the way to number five in the AP poll at the end of September.
01:15And I'm not sure the Sooners were ever quite that good.
01:18They got the reputation and earned that spot in the poll based on home victories in September over Michigan and Auburn.
01:25And if you'll recall, Michigan, they were starting a true freshman and a very talented true freshman in Bryce Underwood.
01:31But he was making his first ever road start against that Sooner defense that is quite salty and only his second career start ever.
01:40So that was a difficult situation for the young Wolverine signal caller.
01:44And then against Auburn, the Sooners used the old hideout play.
01:48And SEC officials had spoke and communicated with coaches and ADs throughout the summer that, man, we're going to be looking for this.
01:56We're not going to tolerate it. Don't even try to do it.
01:59And they did it and they didn't call it.
02:02So maybe Oklahoma would have won anyway.
02:05But the SEC office the next day admitted that that score should have been nullified.
02:10So this is a an Oklahoma team that I think is heavily relying on on an outstanding defense.
02:16It's an Oklahoma team, interestingly, at least from my perspective, that since joining the SEC prior to the 2024 season,
02:23they have yet to score more than 27 points in an SEC game.
02:28So still looking to bust 27 points.
02:31Matier, since coming back from his surgery that occurred there on September 24th, the three games since against Texas,
02:39Ole Miss, and then this past weekend in those three games, actually Texas, South Carolina, and Ole Miss in that order.
02:47He's only hit 55 of 95 passes, so only 58% for 575 yards, only 6.1 yards in the attempt.
02:55Two touchdowns only in those three games against the three interceptions he threw in the Texas loss.
03:02Tennessee seems to be gaining momentum.
03:04The passing game really rolling under Joey Aguilar.
03:07I think Tennessee wins this one by a touchdown or so.
03:10Give me the volunteers minus the points over the Sooners.
03:14All right.
03:14So volunteers minus three and a half this week.
03:17By the way, Oklahoma to make the college football playoff and Tennessee to make the college football playoff.
03:21Those odds, as you can see, they're very heavy on both, but one of them could take a big hit this week.
03:27Meanwhile, styles make fights, and if the style is going to make the fight this week between UCF and Baylor,
03:32we could be in for a barn burner here.
03:34The total is 59 and a half, Paul.
03:37UCF coming off maybe their best win of the season against West Virginia,
03:41because when I look at their schedule, I mean, I see that win against North Carolina.
03:44I don't see a lot there, but meanwhile, Baylor is four and four.
03:49I mean, these teams are both fighting for postseason eligibility of some kind, maybe a bowl game,
03:53but Baylor can't cover a spread at all this season.
03:56They're one and seven.
03:57So tough game, I think, to call for me.
04:00I can see both sides getting it done.
04:02Yeah.
04:03Prior to the season, you know, there were a lot of college football media members,
04:07including yours truly,
04:07who thought Baylor had a chance at challenging for the title in what promised to be another wide-open Big 12 race.
04:15It obviously, as you mentioned, hasn't come to fruition, and primarily due to a leaky defense.
04:20They thought their defense was improved to this point.
04:22We really hadn't seen it, giving up 36.3 points per game, and it's seven games against FBS opponents.
04:29A lot of points, 122nd out of 136 FBS teams do the Bears' rank in scoring defense,
04:38also giving up a robust 432 yards a game to FBS opponents.
04:45So, as you might expect, and as you mentioned, Baylor hasn't fared well at the betting window,
04:50only covering one of their eight games to this point.
04:53But I actually believe that there's some value in backing Baylor this weekend against Central Florida.
04:59I had Baylor pegged as about a touchdown favorite here.
05:02It actually opened at minus six at some books on Sunday.
05:07They've taken some UCF money, now down to three and a half at most books.
05:11You look at this UCF team, there's really not a whole lot of meat on the bone, so to speak.
05:16They've defeated three FBS teams to this point in the season,
05:20one of those being Group of Five, Jacksonville State.
05:23The other two, Power Four members, North Carolina and West Virginia,
05:27two Power Four members that are combined 0-8 in their conference play.
05:33You know, the current number infers that these teams are about even on a neutral field.
05:37I don't see it that way.
05:39I think Baylor's got a better team.
05:41And UCF, they haven't faced a particularly difficult slate of passing offenses.
05:48That changes on Saturday.
05:49If nothing else, Baylor can throw it all over the yard with Sawyer Robertson.
05:53I think they throw for a lot of yards.
05:55I like the Bears minus three and a half over the Golden Knights Saturday in Waco.
06:0023 touchdowns for Robertson this season and averaging over 300 yards per game.
06:07Diving out west, 7.30 p.m. Eastern.
06:10This is an interesting one here, Paul.
06:12Interested in your handicap here because I got to say,
06:15I don't trust either of these teams, in particular Oregon State.
06:18My gosh, all the good feelings they had last year are gone.
06:22What an awful year for them.
06:24They're plus three and a half, though, at home in Corvallis.
06:26Always a tough place to play.
06:28Total of 47 and a half.
06:30Wazoo, just when you think they're making some progress,
06:33they put up a clunk or two.
06:35So I'm not sure how to identify this one.
06:38Total 47 and a half.
06:40A total under 50 in college football.
06:42Watch out for turnovers.
06:43How do you think that this one plays out?
06:45Well, I'll tell you, the Cougars kind of going back about a month.
06:49Washington State, they give up 59 points to both North Texas and Washington
06:55in back-to-back turnover-filled losses.
06:58They're sitting there at 2-2.
07:00They've got a tough schedule.
07:02If you follow schedules, I mean, they had to put something together.
07:04They were left out of basically the reshuffling of the deck
07:07and college football's latest restructuring.
07:10They've got a schedule currently ranked the nation's 37th toughest.
07:13So they're sitting there at 2-2.
07:16You're saying, man, there's no way they can compete with the best teams
07:18on their schedule.
07:20But their last four games, man, have they shifted the narrative,
07:23not only covering their last four games,
07:25but they've covered each of their last four games by at least 15 points,
07:30by an average of 21.5 points a game have been those four covers.
07:35Lost, you know, they had a chance to beat Ole Miss.
07:37They were in that game in the fourth quarter, lost by one possession,
07:40then go to Virginia the next week, leading Virginia in Charlottesville 20-10.
07:45After three quarters, they let it slip away, lose 22-20.
07:49But this Washington State team, man, they just look like they're, you know,
07:53they're just playing well.
07:54They're 4-4.
07:55They need to split their final four games to reach bowl eligibility.
07:59It starts on Saturday against Oregon State.
08:03This is actually going to be the first of two games between these two schools.
08:06They'll play again on the Palouse and Pullman on Saturday, November 29th.
08:11So they'll be meeting twice in the month of November.
08:15Oregon State, 1-7 on the season.
08:17Fired their head coach, Trent Bray, a couple weeks back, going nowhere fast.
08:21I think Washington State wins big.
08:23I like the Cougars, minus 3.5 over the Beavers in Corvallis.
08:275-3 against the spread, Wazoo.
08:29Real quick, before we let you go, Paul,
08:31it seems like this has been the season of big coach firings in college football.
08:36Super rare season for seeing all the different schools parting ways.
08:40The latest was Brian Kelly from LSU.
08:43Do you think that the standards for these schools is set too high,
08:46or do these coaches lose their gigs for not winning big games?
08:50Is it justified?
08:51I've never seen anything like this before.
08:54I think it's insanity.
08:55I mean, the amount of money that they're paying out to these coaches and buyout.
08:59I won't get the numbers exactly right, but Penn State was ranked number two,
09:04and less than 20 days later, I think it was, James Franklin's fired.
09:07LSU is in the top five.
09:1029 days later, Brian Kelly's fired.
09:13I think it's just crazy.
09:15Hearing from some well-placed people in LSU,
09:17they think John Sumrall has got a good shot at the LSU job,
09:21so it'll be interesting to see which direction they go.
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