2025 Conference Championship Weekend: Best Bets & Predictions

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00:00We're almost at the point of bowl season. I know Paul Stone getting excited for that. We got one

00:04more week to get through and then the college football playoff and the rankings and everything

00:08else. And Paul is with us now to get into conference championship weekend. Paul, welcome

00:13back to Newswire. Happy holidays. Happy Thanksgiving. Great to have you back here on the

00:16show. And without further ado, let's dive right in. It's the Conference USA Championship Friday

00:22night. I'm going to guess a lot of folks have not seen these two teams play all season long.

00:26Both had great years. Kennesaw State minus two and a half against Jacksonville State.

00:31Feels like Kennesaw has played all close games, every game, one score game for the last month

00:36or so. Jacksonville State played a team from my area here, Paul, and lost to FIU, if I'm

00:45not mistaken. FIU has been a really good team this season, too. Total of 59 and a half, a

00:50very evenly matched game that would appear on paper. Paul, how do you feel about this

00:54one? Well, I'll tell you, it is an evenly matched game for sure, Craig. And I'm actually

00:59going to look at the total here. And I'm referencing the first meeting between these

01:03two teams. That was won by Jacksonville State 35 to 26 over Kennesaw State. That game was actually

01:11played in Jacksonville, Alabama, not to be confused with Jacksonville, Florida. But Kennesaw

01:16State went in there as the three-point favorite, lost that game to Jacksonville State 35 to 26.

01:22But there was tons of offense in that first meeting. The teams combined for over 1,000

01:27total yards of offense, 579 of those by Kennesaw on 90 plays. Jacksonville State ends up with

01:34451 total yards on 56 plays. So the teams combined to average over seven yards per play. Kennesaw,

01:44they would have scored more in the game, but they were hampered by four interceptions, three

01:49of those fairly deep in Jacksonville State territory. Two of those interceptions, they

01:55started to play on the Jacksonville State 23. On a third of those interceptions, on a

02:00third one, they were third and goal from the Jacksonville State four. So three interceptions

02:05by Kennesaw State deep in Jacksonville State's territory, or they would have scored more than

02:10the 26 points there. In the first game, when you're looking at totals, you're always going

02:15to look at the number of offensive plays that you project. 146 plays in the first meeting,

02:20about 10 more than the average for a college football game this season. A formula that I use

02:26projects 149 plays on Friday night. Both these teams have been offensive-minded all season.

02:33Jacksonville State, eight and three to the over in their 11 games versus FBS opponents. Kennesaw State,

02:40after averaging just 19.4 points per game in their first five games, they've averaged 36 points a

02:46game in their last seven. I think we're going to see a lot of offensive fireworks. These teams play

02:51fast. They play with tempo. I like the over 60 of Friday night in the Conference USA Championship game

02:58between Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State. Certainly, Paul, that's one of the games on Friday,

03:04but one of the marquee games, of course, on Saturday, and the first one on the board has major

03:08implications for the college football playoff. First time we saw BYU play Texas Tech, it was

03:14really a blowout, more or less. I mean, Texas Tech took care of business here, but I don't think that

03:19we thought that that would be BYU's only loss all season long. It's the only thing keeping them out

03:24of the college football playoff at this point. Total 49.5 Saturday at 12 o'clock Eastern for the

03:29Big 12 Championship. The Red Raiders are 12.5-point favorites. A win for BYU would catapult

03:36them into the playoff. I don't think there's any question about that, but they really didn't show

03:41their worth against Texas Tech. Do they have a better shot this time around?

03:45You know, I think they do. You know, BYU certainly is the one team in this playoff scenario,

03:52all the different playoff scenarios that we have with the teams involved. I think BYU's the one team

03:57that could really be a bid stealer, if you will, if they are able to upset Texas Tech in Arlington,

04:05Texas as a double-digit underdog on Saturday. You know, based on the most recent playoff rankings,

04:12BYU would leapfrog Notre Dame, would seemingly eliminate both the Irish and Miami from playoff

04:20consideration. You know, I think Texas Tech, on the other hand, I think they're safe as far as the

04:24playoff, regardless of Saturday's outcome. They only have one loss as well, and I think the committee

04:30is very cognizant and aware of the fact that in its loss, Texas Tech played without its starting

04:36quarterback, Aaron Morton, and that's when they went to Arizona State, lost that game to the Sun

04:41Devils 26-22. So, I think they'll take that into account. So, I think BYU's got a little more at stake

04:49here. Obviously, they only make the playoff if they win, and I also think the Cougars, not a huge deal,

04:55but they could be energized by the fact that Kalani Satake has apparently rejected the overtours

05:02of Penn State to become their next head coach. As indicated, he intends to stay in Provo as BYU's

05:09head coach. So, I think that gives them a little bit of energy. If Tech brings their A game, BYU could be

05:14in trouble. They dominated the first game, did Tech 29-7 in control from start to finish, but I like

05:21BYU. They're getting a double-digit points for the second straight time. I'll take BYU plus 12.5 to

05:26keep it a little bit closer this time around against Texas Tech. It's interesting is you could get a

05:32little bit better odds for them to make the college football playoff than you can the money line on the

05:37game. I'm seeing plus 410 to make the playoff, and no, obviously, minus 590, but a little bit of some

05:43extra juice for those of you who may think that they win the game outright, plus 410 over on the

05:48FanDuel Sportsbook. Okay, so a little bit of a stunning line for me here, Paul. This was the one

05:53that I really wanted to ask you about here because Ohio State has basically dominated everybody all

05:58season, especially on defense. They basically do not give up more than a touchdown in almost any game.

06:03They're only four and a half point favorites in the Big Ten Championship. Saturday night, 8 p.m.

06:08Eastern, neutral site, total of 47.5, a conference championship game, Paul, with a 47. That's pretty

06:15low in college football, all things considered. But man, what is this line telling us going into

06:21Saturday night? Can Indiana pull this off and be the number one seed in the college football playoff?

06:26Well, I'll tell you, one book on Sunday, Craig, the book opened to Ohio State as a six and a half

06:33point favorite in this game in Las Vegas. So it shows you that the public has bet, you know,

06:39taking money on the Hoosiers clearly to this point. Ohio State money might show between now

06:44and Saturday night. But I'll start off by offering that I think even though we've played 12 games and

06:50both these teams undefeated at 12 and 0, we've played the complete regular season, I still think

06:55there's a little bit of mystery about both of them. And it's based on their schedule. I mean,

06:59Ohio State, their schedule only the 37th toughest in the country right now, as rated by Jeff Sagren,

07:06Indiana coming in even lower at 56. Ohio State missed a lot of the, they obviously hadn't played

07:12Indiana. They'll play them Saturday night, but they also missed, did Ohio State, they missed Oregon on

07:18their schedule, USC, Iowa. They didn't play some of those upper echelon Big Ten teams. So they only

07:24really played one competitive game into the fourth quarter. That was their opener against Texas,

07:29defeated the Longhorns 14 to 7. Ohio State pretty much controlled that game from the start, led 14 to

07:36zero there in the second half. Texas scores a touchdown to bring it to 14 to 7. And Texas actually

07:42had the ball at midfield with two minutes to go. So that was a tight game. But other than that,

07:47in their other 11 games, Ohio State has had no one play them any closer than 18 points.

07:53Michigan did it this past weekend at the Big House. And then earlier in the year,

07:57Washington did it on their home field there at Husky Stadium. And Ohio State, part of it is the

08:04schedule, but probably most of it's just they're that good. And you mentioned their defense,

08:08and they are really good on defense, only giving up 8.5 points per game in the regular season through 12

08:15games, only 206 yards a game, less than four yards of play allowed. They give up 3.7 yards per

08:23play. I don't remember anybody giving up that little in recent times. So that's a great defense.

08:29But this Indiana team, you know, they've really shown themselves the last couple of years. I was

08:36kind of a naysayer last year with Kirk Signetti. And, you know, they didn't play their best against

08:41Notre Dame and earlier in the late regular season against Ohio State last year. But I think this is

08:47a better Indiana team. We've seen them on the road. We saw them go to Austin Stadium. They maybe

08:52didn't dominate the Ducks, but they were clearly the better team on that day. Defeated Oregon 30 to 20

08:58on the road, one of the toughest environments in all of college football. I like Indiana plus four

09:03and a half to play a close one against Ohio State Saturday night in Indianapolis.

09:07Wow, can you imagine that? And maybe even winning and maybe even potentially getting the Heisman

09:12Trophy Award. What a season for Indiana it would be if all that happened. Paul, enjoy the games this

09:17week. There are the odds on Mendoza. We will catch you next week and get ahead of some of the college

09:23football playoff matchup. Thanks again for coming on.

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