00:00Oh, it's never too early to talk a little college football next year.
00:03Why?
00:04Because the draft just happened here.
00:06You had three straight days.
00:07Players got drafted.
00:08And by the way, did you know, Joe, probably typical,
00:10the SEC led the way with most draft picks from a conference here with 87 in total,
00:15followed by the Big Ten at 68.
00:17But if we do look towards next year, I don't want to say parity,
00:21but sometimes you take a look like, oh, the Dodgers are going to easily win it.
00:24Oklahoma City is going to easily win it here.
00:26Take a look at different sports.
00:26The Colorado Avalanche will easily win their championship here.
00:30Look at this, Joe.
00:31On the Cal State marketplace, the college football national championship winner,
00:34the chances, 11% Notre Dame, 11% Ohio State, 11% Texas, 10% Indiana, 10% Georgia.
00:45We got a log jam up top, Joe, which basically means these are the teams we expect
00:50to make the college football playoff.
00:52And then you throw the name into a hat, boom, pick one out.
00:55Yeah, and I think it's going to be the usual, right?
00:58So Ohio State, shocker, Texas, shocker, Georgia, shocker.
01:04We're starting Notre Dame, shocker.
01:06Starting to see a little bit of a trend here, Donnie, aren't we?
01:10Because likelihood, these are all correlated markets, right?
01:15Unless, of course, is interesting, Notre Dame.
01:18But if I like, let's say, Ohio State to run it back, or Indiana for that matter, right?
01:24We can't forget about them, well, then I already know what not only am I betting them
01:29for a flyer, I'm also betting the conference to win the championship also.
01:34So there's a lot of way to correlate these future bets in college football, but it's
01:39always going to be, to me, Donnie, the same four or five teams in the foreseeable future.
01:46Exactly, and we know the conferences that are usually the big dogs on the national stage
01:50just told you, the SEC with a ton of draft picks, same thing with the Big Ten.
01:53Well, then it's no surprise, Joe, in this marketplace on Cal sheet, the conference to win the national
01:58championship, the favorite, yes, it's going to be the SEC trading currently at a 39% chance
02:03to get it done.
02:04The Big Ten currently has a 34% chance here.
02:07Now, the interesting one you might say is, any other conference are independent.
02:11You're like, wait a second.
02:11That doesn't mean the ACC, the Big 12, the Big Ten, or the SEC.
02:14Well, that basically is the Notre Dame price point here, and a couple other teams at 13%,
02:19followed by the Big 12, and the ACC.
02:22So I ask you this question, Joe.
02:23If I had to give you one conference to go after, who would that be, and at what price point
02:28here?
02:30Well, I think the answer is SEC, and the reason is, is that Texas, Georgia, Bama, A&M,
02:37Ole Miss, Oklahoma, you know, don't forget, Ole Miss is returning its quarterback.
02:42So there are, I think you just have more darts, so to speak, coming out of the SEC than the
02:49Big Ten, which for the most part is, what, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana?
02:54I'm not buying Michigan.
02:55I'm not buying Penn State.
02:56I think the SEC depth has the better portfolio of teams, and I think that's where you'd look
03:02here at this particular point.
03:05Taking a look here, Joe, at the college football playoff qualifiers.
03:08That means not who's going to win the championship, but just get into the college football playoff.
03:12Ohio State's chance, they're the leader in the clubhouse at 80% right now,
03:17followed by Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia, and Indiana.
03:20A little bit farther down there, a team that was in the national championship game last year
03:23was the Miami Hurricanes, currently trading at 66%.
03:26So the two teams, Joe, that met last year in the championship game, won Indiana, 71%.
03:31They won it last year, and then Miami at 66% here.
03:36Teams to make it in, Joe.
03:37Any thoughts?
03:40Ah, looks like Joe didn't have any thoughts on that.
03:42Joe is a Miami Hurricanes fan, just like myself as well.
03:45And by the way, if you do think Notre Dame is going to make the playoffs, it's really expensive.
03:50A $100 investment pays back $120, but as you saw last year, and you're going to see even
03:54more this year, the pathway for Notre Dame to get into this college football playoff is
03:59as easy as it gets.
04:01Also, you might think to yourself, well, okay, if I store $100 away, give me $120 back next
04:05year, at least I get a return on my investment.
04:07Sometimes hard to swallow, but when you're looking at sure things, and nothing is a sure
04:11thing here, Notre Dame making the college playoff certainly sticks out for me.
04:15Indiana, can they make a comeback?
04:16The Miami Hurricanes, can they get back to the championship game?
04:19We'll find out.
04:20But Ohio State always primed there in the Big Ten.
04:22Same thing as you take a look at Georgia, and also, we talked about who in the SEC can
04:28win the championship.
04:28You take a look at Kalen DeBoer and Alabama.
04:31Can they get the job done?
04:33He just got paid a lot of money.
04:34But as I slide this down and try to find Alabama, they're currently trading at $0.46 to make the
04:41college football playoff, which a $100 investment pays back $218.
04:46Joe, I was just talking about Bama.
04:49Kalen DeBoer making what, like $13 million a year, only at a 40% chance to make the college
04:54football playoff?
04:55Where's that investment return at?
04:59Again, there are some flyers in the SEC, Donna.
05:02Donnie, we're taking a flyer for because, listen, everybody's going to look at Texas because
05:09of you-know-who under center there, right?
05:11True.
05:12How do you not look?
05:14Alabama's always live.
05:15Georgia, always live here.
05:18Texas, I got to see it before I believe it.
05:21Even with a year under his belt now and maybe having the number one draft pick coming out,
05:26you and I both know Georgia and Alabama are always going to be live coming out of the SEC.
05:32It is, it's so tough, too, because understand this, Texas is trading as the favorite to win
05:36the SEC championship this year, 26%.
05:38It's no longer the, like, it used to be, Joe, you had to win the SEC championship game to
05:42play for a championship, and it meant that much more.
05:44It's not necessarily the case at this point.
05:46Also, just getting into the college football playoff is now what matters more, and you can
05:50almost look like it, hey, we got into the playoffs without even making the SEC championship
05:53game.
05:54We can, you don't have that wear and tear and that toughness that you're going to have to win
05:57that game.
05:58That could shape up.
05:59So, for me, if you look and say, you know what, I'm going to take the no on Texas, it
06:02is expensive.
06:03$100 investment pays back $129, Joe.
06:06You get every team in the SEC but Texas to win that championship game here.
06:11College football Big 12 winner.
06:13Let me see some of the markets on this place at Cal sheet.
06:15I'm sliding down, I'm sliding down, I'm sliding down and saying to myself, hey, look, there's
06:20Colorado, Joe.
06:21A 2% chance to get it done.
06:23$100 investment pays $5,000.
06:25And if Deion and the boys can win the Big 12, eh, you can hope and dream, right?
06:30You can always hope and dream, but the reality is we know that is not likely happening.
06:36The truth is, listen, Texas Tech, who's had made some headlines here with some draft picks,
06:42they have more money than anybody in NIL, and they are willing to spend it.
06:48So, from this point forward, very hard not to look at Texas Tech out of the Big 12.
06:54I mean, we just told you how close, like, you know, you look at the Big 10, or let's
06:57just say the SEC, at the top of the standings, like, Texas has a 50% chance before we even
07:02play a football game to win that conference.
07:04The next closest person, Joe, it's BYU at 14% in Oklahoma State.
07:09Your boys at 14%.
07:11College football's finest out of the Big 10, the national champions, they're trading with
07:15Ohio State as the best chance to win the Big 10, Joe.
07:18How about that?
07:19Indiana and Ohio State, 29% chance.
07:22How about that?
07:23Yeah, and again, all teams that get used to it, because they will always be at the top
07:29and the favorites in all of these markets here, Donnie, for the foreseeable future.
07:34How about this?
07:35Coaching change there at Penn State.
07:37Joe, think they can win the Big 10 and win some big games?
07:39Finally, $100 investment pays back $14.
07:42What's that?
07:43$1,429.
07:45Not bad, people.
07:46We'll be right back after this short break.
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