10 Day Trend 19/11/2025 – Start of winter? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 19/11/2025.  It has been an exceptionally cold week so far, but there are signs of milder weather arriving by the weekend.  Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth

Transcript

00:00Hello, I'm sure you've noticed it has turned much colder but how long is this cold spell

00:05going to last? Well, we look to our jet stream to see how the weather setup is going to change

00:11and at the moment we've got a fairly meandering pattern to the jet stream as it dives up to the

00:16north and dives back down to the south and we're on the cold side of that jet stream but as the

00:22week goes on the pattern changes. We get more of a mobile setup starting to develop with the jet

00:28stream moving more directly across the Atlantic towards the UK and that will allow low pressure

00:33systems to bring some wetter and windier weather to us on this weekend and it will turn a little bit

00:40milder. It's not going to turn exceptionally mild like it was earlier on in the month but it is

00:45going to turn milder than it is at the moment but we've still got some very cold nights to come

00:50through the latter part of this week. We've got arctic air across us as we're on that cold side

00:56of that jet stream the air is diving down from the arctic that's why it is feeling so bitterly cold

01:02particularly if you're exposed to the wind. Across western areas actually there's plenty of dry weather

01:07to come through the latter part of this week but it's through the early mornings and the evenings

01:11where there is a risk of snow and ice. We do have warnings in force through the rest of this week

01:15please take a closer look at our website and app for more details on them but one of most note is

01:22the amber snow warning we have for the north York moors so there's likely to be some disruption

01:28to travel through the early hours of the morning as well as in the evenings through the latter parts

01:33of this week and it will stay quite cloudy with continuous snow showers across many eastern areas

01:38across the west it will turn drier as we head towards Friday but Friday morning is looking like the

01:45coldest start to the week so far that's because we've got higher pressure starting to build in before

01:50that wet and windy weather arrives for the weekend and as the winds turn much lighter that will allow

01:55a more widespread frost to develop and when we've got lying snow across parts of Scotland we could

02:01see temperatures as low as minus 11 or minus 12 degrees to start the day on Friday but as it says

02:07as we head into Friday we'll start to see that transition to wetter and milder weather from the

02:13north and west but for the bulk of the day actually particularly across south and eastern areas many eastern

02:19areas of Scotland as well as northern England we'll see a dry and bright day which will make a difference

02:24to those snow showers and that onshore breeze we've had across the east but it's still going to be a

02:28cold day after the cold start temperatures only reaching five or six degrees at best wherever you

02:34are and the sunshine the amount of the sun is up for a limited time at this time of year so

02:38the sun is not that strong still. As we head into the weekend though this band of rain will push

02:46across the country through Friday night and into Saturday morning it could bring some fairly heavy spells

02:51of rain there is some uncertainty on the details of the rainfall for the weekend more on that in a moment

02:56but it's also introduced a lot more cloud and that will keep temperatures a little bit higher as we head

03:02into the weekend so these are the overnight minimum temperatures for Friday night into Saturday morning

03:10and you can see compared to Thursday night into Friday morning you see it's going to be a much milder night

03:16for the bulk of the country for Northern Ireland much of Scotland after that bitterly cold start on Friday

03:22as well as parts of Wales southwest England but actually for the southeast as that band of rain

03:27hasn't quite pushed into the southeast it's going to be a another cold start to the day on Saturday

03:33now the weather front will push it through the southeast of the country later in the day on Saturday

03:40and there is some uncertainty as I mentioned into how this low pressure is going to develop exactly

03:45and there's a chance that actually many northern areas particularly the northeast of Scotland could see a dry day

03:53on Saturday but we are seeing slight variations from model run to model run as how this low pressure system develops

04:02now the Met Office model would like a low pressure system to then sweep across the country by Sunday

04:08a more developed area of low pressure and if we look to the European model the ECMWF model

04:14you can see that low pressure has just shifted a little bit further north but this is the ensemble output

04:20so all the different lines show you the different outputs from all the different ensemble members

04:25and actually quite a lot of them are shifted further south similar to where the Met Office model is as well

04:31so there's still a couple of days to go so a little to play for but we are expecting no matter

04:36the exact track of this low pressure system some wet and for some windy weather as well

04:42now the rain's not looking that exceptional but we have had quite a lot of rain already this month

04:49this is the rainfall for the 1st to the 18th of November compared to the monthly total

04:56or the average monthly total and for many we're sort of below the below the average amounts if

05:01as you would expect as we're only just over halfway through the month and for some we're well below

05:06that across parts of northern Scotland the far south of England as well but actually for some central

05:11parts parts of Wales central England we've already seen our month's average worth average rainfall for

05:18November so some of the areas are actually relatively sensitive to further rainfall so if we do see some of those heavier spells of rain

05:25moving across central areas there could be some impacts for rainfall so it's worth staying tuned

05:30if you're in these areas and you have seen some rainfall impacts already this month but after the weekend

05:37there is a change on the way most likely these are this is the plot of the different setups we can expect

05:44for the next two weeks and here we have the weekend you can see blues most likely this is southwesterly dominated

05:51so that's that low pressure and then we start to see some reds move in for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday next week

05:57that's high pressure to the north of the UK so we'll start to we are expecting to see a slight shift

06:03after a bit of an unsettled weekend a shift to slightly more settled weather for some areas particularly

06:09in the west so this is the most likely these are the three most likely pressure setups for Monday the 24th

06:16and you can see actually we've got low pressure that low pressure from the weekend moves out as most is expected to move out into Scandinavia

06:24and that would allow a north north easterly wind direction across the UK the second most likely setup is a very similar setup

06:32as we head to Tuesday though it's a similar pattern again so there is a chance the pressure pattern could become

06:40fairly blocked once again with low pressure remaining centred out to the east of the UK

06:45and it could take a little while to shift out the way which would mean some continuous rain across more eastern areas

06:54with more higher pressure becoming more dominant across the west so potentially a drier period

06:59for more western areas for a couple of days next week and there's a little bit more uncertainty as to how long

07:06that drier spell would take to push into more eastern areas this is for Wednesday the 26th actually

07:13it's the same setup that's most likely but it's still only a 15% chance so there's relatively low confidence

07:19throughout next week on the exact pressure setup but the general theme is for the low pressure to push

07:26through the country on the weekend and then perhaps to sit to the east of the UK with high pressure to the west

07:33so some areas seeing a settled period but whichever setup we get we are expecting more of a northerly or

07:41northeasterly wind direction so it will probably turn a bit colder once again not as cold as it has been

07:47this week but there could be some snow showers across northern areas and then we look to our probability plot

07:53again to see how the rest of the week plays out and it's a very subtle change but if you look closely

08:00after Tuesday the 25th we start to get those blues moving in again this time though it's the low

08:08tracking to the south or southwesterly dominated low pressures that become more likely as we head

08:14towards the end of the week so we are expecting a transition from low pressure to slightly higher

08:19pressure for a time to low pressure again but we could see those low pressures roll into one another

08:26and actually that settled period become quite slim if at all so it was worth staying tuned if you're

08:32after any drier weather next week but whichever the most likely setup is this is around adds up to about

08:3736% chance we've got low pressure out to the west of the UK bringing in milder wetter and potentially

08:47windier weather by the end of next week so we do have relatively low confidence for the time lead for

08:54next week but we are expecting some milder wetter weather potentially a slightly drier period through

09:01the middle part of the week particularly for more western areas perhaps that turning becoming a bit

09:08more widespread but then it will return to a wetter and milder more changeable setup by the end of the

09:14week and into the following weekend that went over at the beginning we've still got some very cold weather

09:20weather to come and there are warnings in force so please keep up to date with our website and app

09:25and make sure you subscribe to never miss an update bye bye

10 Day Trend 19/11/2025 – Start of winter?

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