00:00The weather at this time of year can be quite a tricky beast, especially when you're looking quite far ahead.
00:06There's the potential for stormy weather next week, but it's definitely not a guarantee.
00:11More on that in a second.
00:12Currently, well, the front that brought some heavy thundery rain across some parts through Wednesday,
00:17that's now clearing away towards the east with high pressure building in.
00:20You can see the jet stream toppling to the north of the UK and that high pressure settling our weather
00:26down
00:26through Wednesday night and into Thursday does mean it's going to turn quite chilly, really.
00:31First thing on Thursday morning could be a touch of frost, grass frost in a fair few rural spots,
00:36so a fresh start for sure, but then a largely fine day.
00:39As that high pressure drifts away towards the east, we will drag in some warmer, more humid air from the
00:45south-southwest,
00:46so temperatures will rise through the day and also through Thursday night into Friday.
00:50Watch out for some mist and fog developing, particularly across parts of the south-southwest.
00:54Then we have that front that's making its way in, a front that's going to bring some rain initially across
00:59Scotland
00:59and Northern Ireland, but then by around lunchtime, likely to feed into some northern parts of England
01:04and also North Wales.
01:06Now, the Met Office model that I have here, perhaps it's a little quick by lunchtime on Friday
01:12and bringing that rain across, so the rain may be a little bit more delayed compared to what's showing up
01:17here,
01:17but nonetheless, some rain will be spilling its way in, and it could be a little bit heavy across parts
01:22of North Wales.
01:23We could see maybe 10, possibly 20 millimetres of rain building up through Friday,
01:28and when you add in the rain from earlier on in the day and some showers that could pile into
01:32western parts of Scotland,
01:33here we could be looking at 30 to 40 millimetres, perhaps, but that's not really enough to cause too many
01:38problems.
01:39So a bigger talking point, yes, the fog earlier on in the day across southern parts,
01:43but also the big temperature contrast across the country.
01:47So in the south-southeast, it's going to be warm and humid, temperatures here way above average for late September,
01:52highs of around 27, possibly 28 Celsius, but towards the northwest, behind the front, with fresher air here,
02:00temperatures will be pegged back to the mid, possibly high teens, but yes, a real temperature contrast across the country.
02:07As we go later on Friday, the front, although it is weakening as it comes across the country,
02:13it's potentially going to hit against that warm, humid air, so it could invigorate a bit further,
02:18some heavier rain perhaps across eastern parts of England later on Friday.
02:22And then we turn our attention to a trough developing, extending down over the Atlantic.
02:27That's going to interact with this frontal system, so it's going to become quite an active feature
02:33as it heads towards us later Saturday and more so into Sunday.
02:37Before that, Saturday actually looks like a half-decent day for much of the country,
02:41but then that rain arrives in the northwest, and that rain will spill its way across Scotland
02:45and Northern Ireland in particular through Sunday itself.
02:48Now, we're looking a fair few days ahead, so yes, there's some uncertainty about this feature,
02:53but it's worth highlighting that ahead of this, there's likely to be some showery rain,
02:59and we could see some fairly hefty showery bursts of rain, potentially in the southeast,
03:04perhaps more likely across parts of the southwest.
03:07Here I have the Met Office high-res data.
03:09If I show you our global data instead, and whilst the position of the front is fairly similar,
03:15it's highlighting that there's the potential for some hefty showers to develop across parts of southwest England,
03:20Wales, and also possibly the West Midlands as well.
03:23So that's just something to keep an eye out for.
03:25Along the front itself, heavy rain, yes, and also the potential for some thunder mixed in with it as well.
03:31In terms of rainfall totals, let's run through 24-hour rainfall totals for Sunday,
03:36and, well, I think our model's a little deficient, underplaying things ever so slightly.
03:42Across Northern Ireland in particular, I think it could be a bit wetter,
03:45and also western parts of Scotland, maybe worst-case scenario,
03:4975 to maybe 100 millimeters in some of the wettest places
03:53when you're taking the rain later Saturday and through Sunday as well.
03:57And then we do need to factor in that this model's not capturing the potential for those showers
04:01across some parts of the south as well, so it could be a bit wetter there.
04:06Then let's look ahead to next week, and to understand what's going on,
04:10we not only need to look the other side of the Atlantic, but also in the Pacific.
04:16Typhoon Dujuan, which has affected Japan, went through extratropical transition on Tuesday,
04:22so that means it's weakened.
04:23But the remnants of it will be interacting with the jet stream,
04:27and then that has a knock-on effect to what's happening over Canada.
04:30We're going to see amplification, ridge leading to the jet pushing northwards,
04:35and then it's going to meander its way downwards.
04:38With this amplification, the knock-on effect through the Atlantic is for it to dip down,
04:44to dig in, and that's going to lead to a trophy feature,
04:47which is likely to push and develop an area of low pressure.
04:52Again, I have the Met Office model here showing two areas of low pressure
04:57that are developing as we go through the early part of next week.
05:00The Met Office model takes this northern one and deepens it relatively rapidly towards the UK.
05:07The more southern one feeds into it, but doesn't get particularly deep.
05:11Now, if this comes off, we're likely to see some wet, some windy weather arriving around to the UK,
05:19probably maybe late Monday, early Tuesday time.
05:22So there's a potential for some heavy rain, some strong winds Monday, Tuesday,
05:27mainly towards the west.
05:29Further east, you could be a bit drier.
05:30If it doesn't affect the UK too much, it could still be pretty unsettled for parts of the Republic of
05:36Ireland.
05:36And there's also the potential we could see some impacts in parts of Spain, Portugal, France.
05:41The rain could be impactful.
05:43The winds could be impactful.
05:44But perhaps a bigger cause for concern will be the waves.
05:48This looks like it's going to be quite a deep area of low pressure with quite a big wind field.
05:54And that's going to lead to some large waves, which could,
05:56well, which will be coinciding with the third highest spring tides of the year.
06:01So we are expecting some coastal impacts, albeit details need to firm up as we get nearer the time.
06:07Now, this is the Met Office model.
06:09But I want to highlight two runs from ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.
06:14This one I have at the top shows some deepening, but nothing too scary.
06:18However, this other member that I have here shows a deeper area of low pressure,
06:24deepening rapidly, going through explosive cyclogenesis as it comes closer towards the UK.
06:29Now, if this came off, yes, it would be much wetter, much windier for the UK, for the Republic of
06:35Ireland.
06:35Large waves again, like I say, still coinciding with the third highest spring tides of the year.
06:40So that would be more impactful.
06:41But at this lead time, it's definitely not a guarantee.
06:45There's the potential that the low doesn't develop anywhere near as much.
06:49It doesn't get as close to us.
06:50And as a result, the weather isn't as unsettled.
06:54As we go through deeper next week, we have a blocking pattern out towards the east of us.
06:58So we're not expecting any systems to run across the UK.
07:01They're more likely to push their way northwards.
07:03So they may take a while to make their way through.
07:06And they're mainly going to affect western areas.
07:08Towards the east, it's going to be a bit drier.
07:10Notice this other model is then a little bit later developing any low pressure.
07:14Still has it, but it's more likely to be Wednesday.
07:17So, yes, the details need to firm up.
07:18But it may be a few more days before we get a really good handle of this low pressure that's
07:24set to develop in the Atlantic by the middle part of next week.
07:28What happens thereafter?
07:29And we stick with the idea of high pressure blocking out towards the east, preventing much making its way in
07:35from the Atlantic.
07:36So, yes, there will still be some wetter weather towards the north and west, but a bit drier towards the
07:40east.
07:41The first, second and third most likely setups are all fairly similar.
07:44With low towards the west-northwest, high towards the east.
07:48And then you have a bit of a contrast west to east when it comes to rainfall amount as well.
07:53Worth highlighting, Thursday looks quite similar to Friday in many respects.
07:57And even in this setup with any quieter periods through the nights, any ridges that kind of come through, then
08:04you would also get the potential for some frost, albeit perhaps not on the same chilly scale that we're expecting
08:11through Wednesday night into Thursday when it is going to be quite chilly.
08:15But worth highlighting anyway.
08:17So, a quick look at our temperatures for the next, well, 10 days or so as we go through into
08:22the beginning of October.
08:23And you can see that peak.
08:24I've picked London here.
08:25You can see that peak in temperatures for Friday when we have that really warm air.
08:28Temperatures are way above average for the time of year.
08:30Then they drop down and then there's no great shakes really.
08:33Potential for some warmer air coming in with that high pressure dragging something in towards the middle part of next
08:39week.
08:39But it's definitely not a guarantee.
08:41And then it becomes very messy towards the end of the week.
08:44And speaking of messy, well, this is the plot for Edinburgh instead.
08:48Don't quite tap into the warmer air that we get on Friday because things are turning fresher from the northwest
08:53that bit quicker as that front makes its way in.
08:56And really here, temperatures stay much closer to average throughout and even by night, not dropping especially low because of
09:02the wetter, the windier weather that will be coming through on a few of the day's time.
09:06So, just in summary, we are keeping a close eye on that feature that's likely to come through Monday, Tuesday,
09:13perhaps Wednesday.
09:14Stick with us on YouTube and then you'll be up to date depending on how things develop with that.
09:19See you again soon.
09:19Bye-bye.
