- 6 months ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 30/07/2025.
Some fine weather but unsettled at times too, potentially stormy on Monday.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
Some fine weather but unsettled at times too, potentially stormy on Monday.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Buckle up, our weather's set to go on a bit of a rollercoaster ride through the next 10 days.
00:05We have some unsettled spells, something a bit calmer, then something potentially stormy early next week
00:10before we could see high pressure returning towards the end of the 10-day period.
00:14Starting off though, let's look at the bigger picture as we go into Thursday.
00:18We have a northwesterly flow and that's going to be driving some showery bursts spreading across many parts of the country.
00:25There is a front towards the southwest but there will be some showery bursts elsewhere further north
00:30across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, some showery spells here.
00:34The heaviest and most frequent showers though will be across southern parts of England and perhaps Wales as well.
00:39Here there's quite a significant risk of some intense thundery downpours.
00:43We're looking at 25 to 35 millimetres of rain in just an hour or so and perhaps, well, 60 millimetres in a few hours.
00:51That's enough to cause some impacts with some flash flooding and also watch out for some frequent lightning and some hail.
00:58Temperature-wise, we're looking at them peaking in the mid-20s towards the south, 25 Celsius.
01:04Here it's going to be quite humid along with those heavy thundery downpours.
01:08Further north, temperature's a little bit lower but still getting into the high teens or low 20s.
01:12So if you catch any sunshine, of which there should be a decent amount by the afternoon across parts of Northern Ireland
01:17and also East Anglia in particular, it should feel relatively warm.
01:21Then as we go through Thursday evening, a lot of the showers will continue for a little while
01:26but they are eventually going to fizzle out and clear away
01:29and we will have some clearer skies developing as we go overnight Thursday into Friday
01:34and actually things are going to be a little bit fresher.
01:37Temperatures are a little bit lower than they have been through some recent nights.
01:40Maybe a bit more comfortable perhaps if you've been finding things a bit warm, a bit humid at the moment.
01:45As we go into Friday, a couple of things that I wanted to highlight on the bigger picture.
01:50There is a, well, it's drawn as a front, but a sort of trophy feature that's pushing into eastern parts of the UK.
01:55That's bringing some showers.
01:56And there's also a jet streak that's pushing down across the country.
02:00And as that jet streak influences the trophy feature towards the east,
02:06it's likely to see the showers across eastern parts of the UK invigorating,
02:12so becoming a bit more intense as we go through the day.
02:14So some showers quite likely across eastern parts as we go through Friday.
02:18They don't look quite as intense as the ones in the south through Thursday,
02:22but nonetheless 20-30 millimetres in a few hours or so.
02:26In fact, the west we could see a few showers, but it's looking largely dry
02:29and there should be some brighter breaks in between the clouds.
02:32Temperatures will be a little bit lower, just a degree or so,
02:35so starting to turn a bit fresher compared to some earlier days this week.
02:40Then we look towards the weekend and high pressure is trying to build,
02:45a ridge of high pressure building in for Saturday.
02:47That's going to cap things off a little bit.
02:49So whilst there could be a few showers around, there won't be that many.
02:53And they're looking pretty light and short-lived if you do catch any.
02:56So for the most part, it is going to be a generally fine day.
02:59But then things change as we go into Sunday.
03:02Definitely this weekend looks like a tale of two halves.
03:05Saturday mostly fine, but then some wetter weather coming through on Sunday.
03:08A couple of things that I wanted to highlight from this chart here.
03:11And, well, there is a deep air of low pressure forming out in the Atlantic.
03:15I'll have more on that in a second.
03:17But it's this other low just to the southwest of Iceland
03:20and its associated front that's set to then make its way southeastwards
03:24across the country as we go through Sunday.
03:27Now, this does look like it could bring some fairly heavy rain.
03:29It could be thundery at times as this front pushes its way through.
03:32Worth bearing in mind, across parts of the east, southeast,
03:35it's going to be well into the afternoon before that arrives.
03:37And behind it, there will be some fine weather around.
03:40It's relatively, it's a relatively narrow band of rain.
03:44So there will be some dry weather this Sunday.
03:46It just depends exactly where you are,
03:48whether or not that will be most likely in the morning or later on in the day.
03:52It is also going to be a bit fresher, a bit cooler.
03:55Temperature's a bit lower still on Sunday compared to, well, Friday and Saturday as well.
04:00But then, yes, as I mentioned,
04:02there is this area of low pressure that's coming in from the west.
04:05But let's look back at where that originates.
04:08And it actually starts off as a sort of wave over eastern parts of the USA.
04:13And then it makes its way eastwards across the Atlantic.
04:16And exactly what's going to happen with this low pressure?
04:19Well, it all depends on the jet stream.
04:21Because this is the Met Office model.
04:23And the Met Office model wants this low to come across the Atlantic quite quickly
04:27and actually move across the jet stream.
04:29And by the time that it comes towards us early next week,
04:33it's likely to be on the northern side of the jet stream, the cooler side, on the left exit region.
04:38And if it does this, then it's likely to go through something called rapid cyclogenesis.
04:43So it could deepen very quickly and become an unseasonably deep area of low pressure
04:48by the time it reaches the UK.
04:50So we could have some very wet and very windy weather pushing its way across the country.
04:54But a few things to bear in mind.
04:57This is just one model output.
04:59And perhaps the Met Office model at the moment is the most intense
05:03in terms of how deep that low pressure is going to be.
05:06It's also one of the quickest.
05:07But I'll show you a couple of model outputs in a second.
05:10Looking at the details for Monday, then, if this model run comes off,
05:14then, yes, it is going to bring some very wet and particularly windy weather
05:18across many parts of the UK as that low tracks across parts of Scotland
05:22and makes its way eastwards.
05:23The rain could be quite heavy, yes.
05:25It should move through fairly quickly.
05:27So I'm not expecting too many impacts from the wet weather.
05:31It's the winds we perhaps need to watch out for.
05:33There's 50, 60 mile per hour gusts that quite likely could be stronger than that.
05:3870, 80, not out of the question.
05:40And at this time of year, obviously, there are a lot of temporary structures set up.
05:44There are festivals, lots of outdoor plans happening, lots of travel.
05:47So there could be some significant disruption, more disruption,
05:50than you would get during the autumn and winter months with a similar strength feature.
05:55Like I said, though, there are some question marks as to exactly how this is going to develop.
06:00It's looking quite likely that we are going to have some wet and windy weather to start next week.
06:04But exactly when it comes through, where we see the heaviest rain and the strongest winds,
06:08that's where there are some question marks.
06:09And it's no guarantee that we do actually see the unsettled weather.
06:13But let's compare a couple of models for next Monday.
06:16This is for one o'clock in the afternoon.
06:18At the top left, I have the Met Office model.
06:20Top right, ECMWF, the European model.
06:22Bottom left, GFS, the American model.
06:24And then bottom right, ICON, the German model.
06:27And you can see that both the Met Office and German model,
06:29they're actually quite similar with both the timing and position
06:33and relatively intensity of the low-pressure system that's coming into the northwest.
06:38So both of these would suggest a very wet and windy period as we go through into Monday.
06:44ECMWF, however, well, it does have a low starting to push its way into the west,
06:48but it's much slower.
06:50And that low doesn't look anywhere near as intense.
06:52And GFS doesn't really want to know about it.
06:54So this is going more in line with the idea of it not being a particularly unsettled day at all.
06:59But if we roll on 12 hours further into the future,
07:02so now 1 o'clock on Tuesday, so Monday night into Tuesday.
07:05And you can see the Met Office model and the German model have then taken that low across Scotland,
07:12bringing that very wet and windy spell through Monday, through Monday night and into Tuesday,
07:16and then clearing away.
07:17But as I mentioned, the European model, well, that keeps everything a little bit slower.
07:21So it's not really until Monday night into Tuesday when that low pressure arrives.
07:25And notice it's further south.
07:27It's more running across central parts of the UK.
07:30And so that would change exactly where we see the wettest, windiest weather.
07:33It would be a bit more across southern areas, whereas if these ones came off,
07:36then it would be across more central parts and further north.
07:40And still, GFS not really bringing in a low pressure centre at all.
07:44So be aware we could have some very wet and windy weather,
07:47potentially stormy weather as we go through early part of next week.
07:50But the details still need to firm up.
07:53Looking further ahead, this is the 10-day trend after all.
07:56So we want to go through the whole 10-day period.
07:58And, well, as I alluded to at the start, no matter what happens with the unsettled feature,
08:04the low pressure system that comes through early next week,
08:07there are signs that we will see high pressure returning and building from the southwest,
08:12quietening our weather down as we go towards the end of this 10-day period.
08:16So looking at the most likely setups for next Tuesday,
08:19and the most likely setup has high pressure building from the southwest,
08:23as do the second and third most likely setups.
08:25Slight different positioning with the high,
08:28but still going with the idea of something more settled pushing in from the southwest.
08:32And if we just roll on a few more days, and the story's changed or tweaked a little bit,
08:37but still going with the idea of high pressure somewhere across southern, southwestern parts,
08:41or perhaps by the third most likely across much of the UK.
08:45So it does look like things will turn drier.
08:47Yes, there could still be a bit of rain across northern parts,
08:50but particularly towards the south, it looks like it's going to turn largely dry as we go through next week.
08:55And that high pressure could linger for a little while,
08:58could continue through until the end of the next week,
09:00and perhaps it could even last for a little bit longer.
09:03But as we go towards the end of the 10-day period,
09:06there are some signs that we could see low pressure returning,
09:09particularly towards parts of the northwest.
09:11So a slight change to something more unsettled there.
09:15We also need to look at our temperatures as we go through the next few days,
09:18and they, too, go on a bit of a roller coaster ride.
09:20So at the moment, they're a little bit above average for the time of year.
09:24They drop down as we go into this weekend,
09:26already alluded to the fact that there's something a little bit fresher, cooler coming through.
09:30And obviously, on Sunday, when we have that rain making its way across,
09:34if you're under that cloud and that rain, it's going to feel pretty cool.
09:37And when we get that unsettled spell early next week, that's going to make it feel quite cool.
09:41Notice with this is ECMWF data, and so Tuesday's kind of being highlighted as a cool day
09:47because of the unsettled weather.
09:49That's most likely, according to that model, to be coming through on Tuesday.
09:53But thereafter, with that high pressure returning that I just showed you,
09:57there are signs that we could see our temperatures rising,
09:59particularly towards the south.
09:59If we take London, for example,
10:01it looks quite likely that we'll see temperatures rising a fair few degrees above average.
10:06The extreme forecast has it several degrees above average,
10:09but still worth bearing in mind there's some uncertainty,
10:12quite a widespread for the middle to end of next week and beyond,
10:16as you would expect at that sort of lead time.
10:18So a fair few features coming through at the moment.
10:21Watch out for the heavy, thundery showers in the south on Thursday,
10:25and then some showers in the east, in particular, on Friday.
10:27Quieter as we go into the weekend,
10:29but then an unsettled spell Sunday, and more so on Monday.
10:33Like I said, it could be potentially stormy.
10:35So definitely one to watch before the high pressure is likely to then return.
10:40I'll see you again soon.
10:40Bye-bye.
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