This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 05/11/2025. Temperatures will dip over the coming days from a very mild starting point. Next week could see further rain in the south and west but it’s quite messy thanks to a slowing jet stream. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
00:00Hello, we're recording this 10-day trend during a very mild November the 5th, but unlike a good firework display, this 10-day trend is more likely to end up a bit of a damp squib as things get very messy in our weather as we head into next week.
00:16In the shorter term though, the jet stream is pretty wavy out there. Across the Atlantic, we've got these dips, these troughs, and another one extending down towards Iberia, and that is going to get squished and cut off even more over the next couple of days, keeping low pressure anchored to the south, just drifting up towards the UK as we head into the weekend.
00:38Then we get a repeat performance, another dip, another trough in the jet stream that kind of gets cut away, and then we're left with a broader trough sitting out in the Atlantic as we head into the new working week.
00:50And generally, the jet stream weakening as it does so as it heads into next week, meaning the weather patterns are likely to become even more slow moving, and we're going to have this scrap between low pressure sitting to the west of us and high pressure sitting to the east of us.
01:04Let's put a bit of detail on over the next few days, obviously for the very latest day-to-day forecast, we want to be watching our regular YouTube updates, but for the 10-day trends, we take a look at the bigger and the broader picture, so let's concentrate on what the jet stream's doing.
01:22This dip down to the south, and the winds high up in the atmosphere coming up from the south, but with low pressure sitting here in this little dip, the winds actually at low levels are also coming up from the south, and that is why it is so very, very mild.
01:35Temperatures, again, on Thursday up into the mid to even high teens in some locations, 15, 16, 17 degrees Celsius.
01:45So those numbers are kind of 6, 7 degrees above the average in places, so very mild, and that is only likely to slowly change as we go through the weekend.
01:56As we start to see these weather fronts moving in through the course of Friday, they will be bringing some outbreaks of rain, but they will also slowly introduce a change in wind direction.
02:05We'll lose the southerly wind, and we'll get more of a westerly breeze, but coming in from the west, that isn't a cold direction, still bringing air in from a relatively warm Atlantic, so although temperatures will drop a little bit into the weekend, we won't see a massive dip in the numbers.
02:22We'll start to see that transition as the warmer air gets slowly pushed away during Friday, and then into Saturday, behind these weather fronts, we may see slightly cooler air coming in, but as I say, it's not really going to feel cold.
02:36We'll just drop those temperatures by, what, maybe 3 or 4 degrees Celsius, back closer to the average, but still, for many, above the average for the middle of November.
02:47So, yes, it is going to turn a little cooler, but far from chilly through the weekend.
02:51There will still be some rain around as well, as that low heads its way in across the northwest.
02:57It will be throwing showers into western Scotland, northern Ireland, parts of Wales, and then another weather system developing, and this weather front will bring, it looks like, a band of rain in from the west at some point during Sunday.
03:09Bit of a question mark about the timing of this, and so when these weather fronts are aligned with the flow, they tend to develop waves on them,
03:17which can slow the band of rain down and also intensify it in places.
03:22So, yeah, we could see some heavier pulses of rain creeping into parts of the west during Sunday, but there is a bit of a question mark about the timing of that.
03:30But many central and eastern areas are looking largely dry again on Sunday, and again, the wind's coming up from the south, so quite mild, particularly where we do see some sunshine.
03:39This is the rainfall accumulation through the weekend, so just that emphasis again that we're going to see some showery rain in north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland on Saturday,
03:49and then on Sunday, it's a band of rain, pepping the rain up somewhat across these western areas again.
03:54So that west-east split through the weekend, with many western areas seeing rain at times, much of central and eastern Britain likely to stay largely dry and mild through the weekend.
04:05As I say, a bit of a question mark about where that weather front lies as we head into the new working week.
04:10By this stage, as we saw earlier, the Jets looking fairly weak and getting more amplified, as they say, more wavy.
04:18So this pepping up, this little dip, this intensification of the trough out in the Atlantic could just develop another area of low pressure down to the southwest,
04:28and that may become a major player as we head into next week's weather.
04:32Certainly by the time we get to Monday, we're looking at that high pressure influence in the east, low pressure in the west,
04:39and this weather kind of fizzling out as it crosses eastern areas during Monday.
04:43The most likely pressure pattern for the new working week is low pressure sitting to the west, higher pressure sitting to the east,
04:51and the wind still coming in from the south, or perhaps even a little bit more from the southeast, which will keep things pretty mild.
04:58This is the rainfall anomaly, so how much more rain than usual we'd see at this time of year with the heaviest rain in western areas for Monday.
05:06Now, by the time we get to Tuesday, the most likely pressure pattern is similar, but just starting to shift as we start to see this low,
05:14again being pepped up by that dip in the jet stream, getting a little bit closer and perhaps becoming a bit more intense,
05:20and just a bit more of a hint of an easterly breeze.
05:23Now, that's not going to bring things, temperature-wise, crashing down far from it.
05:28It's not particularly cold in the North Sea or the near continent at the moment, but it will just cool things off again back closer to average.
05:35The probability plots as we go through next week, along the bottom there, suggesting that high pressure sitting across Scandinavia,
05:43these orange-y-red colours dominating through the course of the weekend,
05:47but through next week, the darker reds more likely to take over, suggesting higher pressure to the north of the UK.
05:55But that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be dry, because more recent runs of the computer model are now suggesting that low,
06:02that low down to the southwest is going to become more dominant and push further rain in across southern and western areas in particular.
06:11That's the most likely weather pattern, and whether that low pushes further north or whether some higher pressure builds in from the north,
06:19that's the big question mark as we go through next week.
06:21So we go from more of an east-west division to more of a south-north division.
06:27But certainly with low pressure down to the southwest, we will see further outbreaks of rain.
06:30It looks like pumping up from the south.
06:33And as I said, winds either from the south or coming in from the east, either way, not especially cold.
06:39Temperature is going to be, again, closer to average, even if we do see that easterly,
06:44because, as I said, easterly winds at this time of year are not that strong.
06:48So overall, with a weak jet stream, the weather patterns are going to be slow moving.
06:54But the big question mark is to how far in the low pressure comes in from the southwest
06:58or whether we see a build of pressure coming in from the north.
07:02Either way, it looks like the wettest conditions will be across more southern and western parts of the UK,
07:07certainly through the second half of next week.
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