- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 12/11/2025.
After a very wet day in the south on Friday, cold air will plunge across the country for next week with snow possible.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
After a very wet day in the south on Friday, cold air will plunge across the country for next week with snow possible.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, welcome to this week's 10-day trend. It's set to be quite a juicy one. There's a big change
00:06in our weather ahead through the next 10 days. We're going to say goodbye to the milder and at
00:10times wetter weather we have at the moment and instead we're going to see something markedly
00:14colder and with that the risk of some snow for many places too. But let's start off and first
00:21of all I wanted to look at that change in wind direction that's going to lead to the drop in
00:26temperature. Here I have the probabilistic meridional trend for the next two weeks getting
00:31further into the future as we go towards the right. Now we have previous model runs. The older
00:36the model run the further down towards the bottom. The more recent model runs at the top and the reds
00:41indicate the confidence of a southerly flow. Now as you probably know southerly flow means things are
00:46going to be on the mild side at this time of year. But as we go through this weekend and through much
00:51of next week there are blues in the forecast which indicate a change in where our air is coming from
00:57to more of a northerly direction and as you would expect that means we're going to see our temperatures
01:02dropping. Towards the very end of the next two weeks the following weekend and into the week after
01:07well there are less confident signs for where the wind's going to be coming from but tentative signs
01:13that the temperatures will start to pick up a little bit again but more on that in just a second.
01:17The other thing that I wanted to highlight is our forecast confidence index. So the green shaded
01:22areas show where forecast confidence is higher than average for that lead time. You can see at the
01:28moment it's well it's very high the confidence index. It does drop down as we go through into towards
01:33Saturday a little bit below average. Saturday's a bit of a transitional day so they're always a little
01:38bit tricky and then it picks up again it's going to be significantly above average the confidence in
01:44the forecast which is quite important for what I'm going to be saying as we go through much of next week
01:49but then it drops down again well below average as we go towards the end as we head towards well
01:53Friday Saturday time. Now I was tempted to actually curtail this 10-day trend to just a nine-day trend
02:00forecast where confidence drops off at that 10-day period but nonetheless I'll try and give a steer
02:05that far ahead. Starting off though let's look at the bigger picture currently. The jet stream running
02:11across the UK dips down towards the south and then piles up towards the UK. It's brought quite a bit
02:17of changeable unsettled weather at times through this week and there's more of that to come before
02:21we see the change to something colder. Now looking at the pressure pattern there is an area of low
02:26pressure to the southwest of us quite a deep one. This has actually been named Storm Claudia by the
02:31Spanish Met Service. It's bringing heavy thundery rain and some large hail across parts of western
02:36Spain, Portugal, the Canary Islands in particular causing some hazardous weather there. For us yes
02:42it's the driving force of a frontal system. We have a triple point so an occluded front, a warm front and
02:47then a trailing cold front making its way in and that's bringing some wet weather as we go through
02:51Wednesday. But that all then gradually shifts its way northeastward so a bit of rain across some parts
02:56as we go into Thursday. That clearing away and then the attention turns to another area of low pressure
03:01that develops and brings some heavy rain and some blustery winds in the south on Friday. And then
03:06the other thing to bear in mind as we go through the weekend things turning drier with high pressure
03:10developing towards the west. It's coming down from Greenland and then pushing its way southwards
03:16pushing well towards the Azores and this is really going to dominate our weather as we go through the
03:21latter part of the weekend and into next week. It's going to bring some dry weather yes but also allow
03:27for a real change in our wind direction. But before we get to that let's quickly look at Thursday's
03:32forecast and like I said there will be some rain around because of this system that's pushing its
03:38way through. Currently that rain mainly is going to be over parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England
03:42and Southern Scotland. So a bit damp here. Further north across parts of Scotland we have an arctic flow
03:47already so our wind coming in from the north so chilly for sure and a few showers around. Some of these
03:53could be wintry. Some sleet some snow over higher ground. Across central southern England and Wales
03:58it's looking largely dry. Some bright sunny weather and pretty mild possibly even warm you could say
04:04in the sunshine with temperatures peaking around 16 or 17 Celsius towards the south. Further north
04:09well a real contrast north to south when it comes to our temperatures because of the arctic hair that's
04:13plunging through really colder across the north. Now I did want to show you the comparison for our
04:19forecast temperatures for Thursday compared to average for November because they again show the
04:24contrast. And you can see that in the north temperatures around or a few degrees below average
04:29whereas across the southern half of the UK temperatures several degrees above average. Remember what this
04:34shows because it's important for what's coming up later. Then as we go into Friday now this is the low
04:41that is Storm Claudio named by the Spanish Met Service like I said and a separate low develops from it
04:48and this is the low that's then pushing towards us pushes northeastwards. There's a front associated
04:53with this which will bring some rain to well across many parts of England and Wales as we go through
04:59Friday and then as the cold front comes through and invigorates the rain we're going to see some even
05:05heavier rainfall totals as we go through Friday and overnight into Saturday. The other thing that I
05:10wanted to highlight it's not just the rain that's important with that system coming through it's also the
05:14wind direction coming in from the east and that's important because we often see our winds coming in
05:20from the west the southwest and easterly direction with this level of rain not that common and that's
05:26going to play a pretty important role in where we see the greatest impacts. If we look at the rainfall
05:32totals that we can expect these are rolling rainfall accumulations through the next few days so taking in
05:38Wednesday Thursday and then Friday into account and you can particularly see some heavy rain across
05:44parts of southern southeastern Wales and with that wind direction coming in from the east it's worth
05:50noting that it's really across those east southeast facing hills where we're likely to see the highest
05:55rainfall totals. We do have a warning out for much of central southern England and Wales because yes across
06:00those hills like I say south southeast or east southeast facing hills over parts of Wales in particular we could see
06:07a hundred millimeters or so and whilst we relatively often see those kind of totals on the west facing
06:14hills on the eastern side it's slightly less common and so there's a greater chance of seeing some
06:20significant impacts so heavy rain on Friday and overnight into Saturday across many places not across
06:27the north largely dry here but across the southern half of the UK and there will be some strong winds to
06:31go with it as well so a pretty unsettled day. That rain continues but fizzles out a little bit as we go
06:38into Saturday and then the big talking point is that high pressure that I highlighted earlier drifting down
06:43from Greenland and pushing extending southwards towards the Azores and that's going to yes quieten our
06:50weather down there will be some drier weather not totally dry but some drier weather around but it is also
06:56going to lead to a real change in our wind direction so whilst even by Thursday we have that cold arctic
07:02air across northern parts of the UK it is going to push its way southwards as we go through the weekend
07:07and into the beginning of next week so temperatures plummeting as that arctic air makes its way across
07:12the whole country because of that high pressure towards the west of us. So what that means when it comes
07:18to our temperatures well you'll remember I showed you our temperature forecast compared to average for
07:23November for Thursday and it looks very different by the time that we get to Saturday still chilly
07:28still colder or temperatures a bit lower than average across northern areas but across the southern
07:34half of the UK where it is several degrees above average at the moment it's going to drop to around if
07:39not below average as we go through this weekend. Sunday looks ever so slightly colder again and then by
07:45Monday with that arctic air plunging all the way across the country well you can see temperatures do look
07:49like they're going to be several degrees lower than average and that's really going to mark quite a
07:54change to what we've become used to really through much of November when it's been so exceptionally mild.
08:02But what happens thereafter this is the 10 day trend after all so let's have a look further ahead
08:06through next week and I did indicate that confidence is pretty high and that goes with the most likely
08:11output for this coming Tuesday around a 60 percent chance of high pressure somewhere towards the west of
08:17the UK so a similar picture to what we're expecting on Monday this would allow for largely drier weather
08:22particularly towards the west the orange is indicating drier than average towards western parts it would
08:28still allow for some showers to pile down the east but they shouldn't be particularly heavy on Tuesday
08:33a few showers perhaps but the the big talking point I guess will be the wind direction so still
08:37allowing that cold air to come through worth highlighting that the second and third most likely scenarios
08:43for next Tuesday where they have lower percentages particularly the third as you would expect
08:47but they're not too dissimilar still going with the idea of high pressure somewhere nearby towards the
08:51west just the exact position and therefore how dry how wet it's going to be a little bit changes but
08:58pretty high confidence for this lead time for high pressure somewhere towards the west of us
09:03then similar picture on Wednesday albeit likely to see that high drifting a bit further out towards the west and
09:08why is that important well it could allow for a weather system to push its way southwards some models
09:13having a weather system coming from Iceland and then making its way southwards particularly down the
09:18southern side sorry the eastern side of the country and now this would bring some rain yes
09:24but on the northern side of it with still that cold air coming in from the north and cutting into it
09:29well it could bring some sleep some snow something a bit wintry across some parts and that's all
09:35likely to feed its way southwards as we go through Wednesday Thursday setup looks quite similar as
09:40does Fridays as well with high pressure relatively far out towards the west of us so sticking with
09:45that northerly flow and we could see some wetter perhaps even wintry weather pushing its way southwards
09:51as we go through the back end of next week now already alluded to this earlier but as we go through
09:56into the following weekend early tentative signs are that we could see then high pressure building again
10:00from the southwest quietening our weather down after what could be quite a bit of a wintry period
10:06maybe as we go through the back end of next week and also bringing something milder so temperatures
10:11rising up back closer to average for the time of year so let's look at that again but this time looking
10:18at our temperature anomaly as we go or the forecast temperature difference compared to average through
10:23next week and because of the position of the high out towards the west as we go through Tuesday
10:28and into Wednesday more so you can see temperatures likely to be a few degrees below average and it's
10:34a similar story as we go through Thursday Friday and also well actually you know and then by Saturday
10:39like I said sign of something a little bit milder perhaps but it's it's awfully far away at this lead
10:44time so a big talking point though is going to be the chance of seeing some snow now what I have behind
10:50me here are some ECM WF plots showing the probability of greater than one centimeter of snow through the
10:58next few days Wednesday no Thursday we're looking at a few wintry showers over Scottish hills and mountains
11:05in particular but otherwise not really seeing anything on Friday with the very wet weather across
11:10the southern half of the UK on the northern edge of it over some parts of the well the hills and mountains
11:16over northwest Wales there's the potential that we could see something a bit wintry Saturday
11:21apart from a bit of drizzly rain around and clearing away it's looking largely dry but then Sunday into
11:26Monday that colder air starting to cut through greater chance of seeing some showers coming in
11:31across northern parts of Scotland in particular a reasonable chance of seeing some sleet and snow
11:35that chart or that risk increases in terms of its uh in terms of how far it spreads across the
11:42country how far south it pushes in so affecting parts of Northern Ireland Northern England maybe
11:47North Wales as we go into Tuesday but it's then through the middle and end of next week when
11:52things perhaps get a bit more interesting as I mentioned before there's the potential for a
11:57weather system to push its way southwards as the high drifts away towards the west and if this happens
12:02we get some snow on the northern edge of it and that feeds its way southwards well
12:06we could see a bit of snow across many places I mean if we take this chart looking at Thursday and
12:12even across the southern parts of the country it's highlighting a around 20 maybe even greater
12:18than 20 percent chance of seeing more than one centimeter of snow so things could turn quite
12:23wintry and then perhaps a lower chance as we go through Friday and more so by Saturday with something
12:28milder but just worth highlighting that yes things are going to turn colder as we go through next week
12:33and with that then there's a reasonable chance of seeing some sleet and snow as a whole through next
12:38week yes markedly colder marked change to what we've had through much of this November going from
12:44several degrees milder than average to several degrees colder then there's likely to be some sort
12:50of rain pushing its way southwards as we go through next week as the high pressure drifts away towards
12:55the west and with that then with the cold air there's a reasonable chance that we're going to see
12:59a bit of snow and with that as well the other windry hazard a bit of ice mixed in as well
13:04but before we get there we do have some very wet some very windy weather across southern parts in
13:10particular on monday on friday we do have some warnings out for that they're likely to be updated
13:15as we get nearer the time so make sure you stay on top of those otherwise i'll see you again soon bye
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