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This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 16/09/2026.
The autumn equinox may be approaching but could summer-like weather briefly return?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
The autumn equinox may be approaching but could summer-like weather briefly return?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend, a period of time that takes us
00:04up to and beyond the autumn equinox, meaning that by day 10 of this forecast, a week on
00:11Saturday nights will be longer than days.
00:15Autumn, no matter what definition you prefer, will be with us.
00:20However there could be a sense that summer returns next week.
00:26It's only just cooled down after a warm and humid start to this week.
00:30And over the next few days the weather stays very mixed, jet stream sending low pressure
00:35and weather front after low pressure and weather front towards the UK, spells of rain, followed
00:40by showers, followed by brighter interludes, followed by rain and showers and so on.
00:45And with these westerlies dominating right the way up to the weekend, well temperatures will
00:50be around average for the UK.
00:52So, feeling more seasonal at last, but may not last, because over on the other side
01:00of the Atlantic through the weekend, a deep area of low pressure is likely to form.
01:04And whilst that's not going to directly affect the UK, what it is likely to do is send some
01:09energy across the Atlantic and shift the jet stream northwards.
01:14You can see how it pulls that jet stream to the west of the UK, north, so that we have
01:20this bulge over the UK and high pressure builds from the south second half of the weekend and
01:26into next week with some warmer weather coming up from the south west at the same time.
01:33So that sets the scene for the start of next week.
01:35But over the next few days we've still got the jet stream controlling things in a relatively
01:40flat position.
01:41Not the most powerful jet stream, but still developing areas of low pressure, sending
01:45them to the north of the UK.
01:47And we start Thursday with rain clearing the southeast.
01:51In fact, Thursday's a similar day to Tuesday.
01:53So the kind of weather you experienced on Tuesday, rain clearing the southeast, followed
01:58by blustery showers, the most frequent downpours in the north, with some more persistent rain
02:02and strong winds in the far north.
02:03But it's a repeat of Tuesday's weather, essentially, and it's going to feel cool in the breeze coming
02:09from the west-northwest, temperatures mid to high teens in the north and northwest.
02:14Still around the low 20s in the southeast as it brightens up later in the afternoon.
02:20Most frequent showers north and northwest, gusty winds, and these showers will be lively.
02:25They'll be continuing overnight, especially across northern and western parts of the UK.
02:31Increasingly, they'll be fading, and they'll become fewer by the end of the night.
02:35And by the start of Friday, a cool night to come, some places sipping into the single
02:40figures and their highest temperatures will remain around the low teens.
02:46Now we start Friday with those showers fading, but we've got another spell of rain coming along
02:50from the Atlantic, the next weather front, and that's going to shift some warmer weather
02:56on the way as well as some wetter weather.
02:58So, we start Friday, cool, but bright for many.
03:03Cloud builds towards the west, and soon enough, Northern Ireland, Western Scotland, Western
03:07England, and Wales turn damp into the afternoons, heavy and persistent rain, especially over
03:12western hills.
03:13And it's not going to feel warm in that rain, with the winds picking up nearing gale force
03:18in the far northwest of Scotland, temperatures around average.
03:22But, this rain is bringing in warmer air.
03:26And so, by the start of the weekend, it's a more humid feel across the south.
03:30The weather front lingers across southern parts of the UK, it's not quite clear.
03:34So, outbreaks of rain on and off the southern half of the UK, with Wales, Midlands, southern
03:41England not particularly dry or bright.
03:43But the rain, not especially heavy or prolonged either, so it's going to be on and off, a little
03:48bit of uncertainty about its north-south placement.
03:50Either way, temperatures are going to be higher in the south compared with Thursday and Friday.
03:56Further north, brighter skies, but it's still quite blustery on Saturday, with frequent showers
04:00coming into the northwest of Scotland, and gusty winds make it feel cool.
04:06Now, these outbreaks of rain will fade later in the day, but only ahead of the next system
04:12that's starting to approach for the second half of the weekend.
04:15Here it is, this area of rain that extends all the way back into the Atlantic, brighter
04:19colours there indicating some heavier rain over the Atlantic, and it's all tied up with
04:23this low that I mentioned at the start of the forecast, this deep and developing
04:27system coming out of Canada.
04:30And it's going to be sitting here on Sunday, and extending this band of rain into western
04:34parts of the country, later in the day, increasingly cloudy outbreaks of rain, not especially heavy
04:40or prolonged, mostly affecting Northern Ireland, Wales and the southwest, drier and brighter
04:45on Sunday in the east of the UK, as that front moves north-eastwards.
04:51Now, if I just switch on the pressure and the jet stream, you can see the changes that
04:55are taking place, with the bigger picture, that low pushing the jet stream, dragging it
05:01north of the UK, high pressure building to the south.
05:03And so that after that weather front, that does bring cloudier and more damp conditions
05:08in the west on Sunday, after it clears north-eastwards, higher pressure builds and it's likely to
05:13settle things down for the start of next week.
05:17In fact, you can see this marks change in weather when you look at this probability plot.
05:22This shows the probability for each day over the next two weeks of various weather patterns
05:26that affect the UK.
05:27They're colour-coded, so the prevailing weather patterns over the next few days, clearly westerlies.
05:33That's what I talked about, these westerly winds bringing very mixed weather.
05:36All the way through the weekend until the end of Sunday.
05:40Then this big switch occurs to these oranges and red colours.
05:45And these are the kinds of weather patterns in which high pressure is close to, if not over
05:50the UK, there's an assortment of these different shades, but the general theme is higher pressure
05:56rather than low pressure, which is represented by the blue shadings.
06:01And you can see an example of these kinds of weather patterns.
06:05If I pick this colour here, the most likely weather pattern for Monday, you can see it's
06:11high pressure sitting right over the UK, mostly across the south with some mixed weather across
06:17the north and northwest of Scotland.
06:19So not entirely settled here, but for much of the rest of the country, a solid chance
06:23that it will be anti-cyclonic, mostly dry and bright with sunny spells.
06:29Now that's the most likely weather pattern for Monday.
06:32Then it gets a little bit more uncertain in terms of where the high will sit, and that's
06:37why we've got all these different shades of reds and oranges.
06:39They all just represent different placements of high pressure, rather than any radical
06:45differences in the forecast.
06:47So for example, if I take the top three most likely weather patterns for next Tuesday, you
06:52can see most likely, very similar to Mondays, high pressure sitting over the south, a bit
06:57more mixed in the far north of Scotland.
06:59The second and third most likely weather patterns also have high pressure, just shifted a little
07:04bit further west and southwest, so really not that much difference.
07:08The uncertainty that those probability plots make it appear to, they make it appear more
07:15uncertain than it is essentially, that's what I'm trying to say.
07:18So this is Wednesday the 23rd of September, the autumn equinox, high pressure sitting to
07:22the east, most likely.
07:23But other flavours of high pressure are also available, all showing very similar things.
07:30And the brown colours, by the way, on these graphics indicate where it will be drier than
07:35average.
07:36Blue, wetter than average, so southern Europe, Iceland.
07:40Brown, drier than average across a large swathe of the UK essentially, because of the higher
07:45than average pressure close by.
07:48So those are the key sources of uncertainty.
07:51First half of next week is where the high pressure is.
07:55It's also going to be warmer, as well as drier and more settled, it's also going to be warmer.
07:59And that starts later in the weekend, because the low that I mentioned that shifts the jet
08:04stream north, that's also going to drag subtropical air across the UK from the southwest.
08:08And with high pressure building then, and that more humid air in place, we'll see sunny days
08:14predominantly, especially in the south, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.
08:17And after that more humid start to the week, temperatures will tend to build day by day.
08:22So we start off with average temperatures this weekend, and then those temperatures are rising
08:27through the early part of next week.
08:30And that's clear when you look at this temperature plot for London.
08:34And this doesn't just take one computer model run, it takes 51 computer simulations from the
08:40European model, plots them all on one graphic, and then where they're clustered together,
08:44you see these red and orange colours, and you can see these faint lines that are the
08:49outliers with the model runs.
08:51And you can see the general upward trend, not dramatic, but it's generally upward trend
08:57through the early part of next week.
08:59For London, for example, up into the low to mid 20s, I normally add on a couple of degrees,
09:03knowing that this model is lower resolution, and you can normally add on a couple of degrees
09:09for the most likely temperatures.
09:12So I suspect low to mid 20s, perhaps by the end of next week, some of these runs are indicating
09:19the high 20s, but they're in the minority.
09:22The bulk of runs actually go slightly lower again.
09:25So the uncertainty increases, as you can see.
09:27However, we do have this upward trend early next week, that's pretty clear.
09:31Not just for London, but for Cardiff, an upward trend peaking, most likely Tuesday, Wednesday.
09:37There are some runs that go higher again later next week, but the majority take it down just
09:43a touch.
09:43Similar trend for Belfast, a bit more uncertainty, though, by the time we get to Belfast, and indeed,
09:50Edinburgh.
09:51As you can see, quite a lot of uncertainty.
09:54Again, a peak Tuesday into Wednesday, before quite a lot of uncertainty.
09:58In fact, two scenarios developing there.
10:01One scenario, one cluster keeping it really quite warm, low 20s perhaps, and one taking
10:07it down below where we start.
10:09So, increased uncertainty as we go through next week.
10:13And that's because, when we look at the individual computer model simulations, you can see
10:18there are increasingly different ideas about how next week will evolve.
10:24So, taking Tuesday the 22nd of September, and remember the charts that I showed at the start
10:30of this summarise all these different computer simulations.
10:34Now we're looking at the nitty gritty, we're looking at these individual simulations.
10:39And Tuesday, compared with Friday, you can see by Friday there are a lot more lows here, here,
10:49some quite deep lows as well.
10:52On balance, there are still more highs by Friday.
10:58Quite a few highs there.
11:00So, more likely that high pressure will be holding on, but more of these lows are appearing.
11:07This one, for example, has low pressure over the south of the UK.
11:11This one has it towards the northwest.
11:13This one has it in the North Sea.
11:14One there to the north, one there to the north, one there to the north, and so on.
11:19So, what I can deduce from this is that there are more simulations that show high pressure.
11:24So, it's more likely that high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature of our weather.
11:30But you can't discount these lows that are starting to appear at the end of next week.
11:35It becomes increasingly likely that we'll start to see low pressure returning, especially towards
11:41the north of the UK.
11:43So, on balance, yes, it turns more settled.
11:47High pressure builds early next week.
11:48It turns warmer.
11:49It turns drier, especially in the south.
11:53But, later next week, whilst it's more likely that high pressure will hold on,
11:58you wouldn't rule out the Atlantic sending us a low pressure or two, especially affecting the north of the UK.
12:07But, it is a small chance that it will affect more widely across the UK with wind and rain.
12:15And that's the end of next week, by the way.
12:17Early next week, solid signal there for higher pressure, drier, and warmer.
12:23We'll keep it updated as always on our YouTube channel.
12:24But, for now, that's all from me. Bye-bye.
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