00:00Hello, welcome to this week's 10-day trend. Through the next 10 days, we're going to see the weather flip
00:05-flopping with low pressure, then high pressure, troughs, then ridges.
00:09And we can see that in the probability plot for the next two weeks, going from blues with low pressure
00:14and control to reds and oranges and yellows with higher pressure nearby, then back to blues.
00:19And then, yes, as we look further ahead, it becomes more uncertain. That's what we normally see.
00:23But you can see we're likely to stick with something a bit more changeable with flip-flopping continues, albeit perhaps
00:30deeper into September.
00:32Could see signs of high pressure lingering for a little bit longer than through the next week or so, but
00:38that's a bit far ahead at this stage.
00:41Let's look at the pressure pattern across the nearby area currently.
00:45And we have this ridge of high pressure that's settled our weather down through Wednesday.
00:49It's been a largely fine day for much of the country.
00:52Further west, there is a weather system that's going to arrive on Thursday, bring rain to many, especially towards the
00:58northwest.
00:58But I want to highlight two areas of low pressure.
01:01There's one here and then there's one up here as well.
01:04This one is going to push in towards us for Saturday.
01:07But it's worth bearing in mind, this one hasn't really developed yet.
01:11It's going to develop as it comes towards us, as it interacts with the jet stream.
01:16And because it hasn't yet developed, there's a fair bit of uncertainty, even though it's, you know, this coming weekend,
01:23there's a fair bit of uncertainty as to exactly how developed it's going to be and the track it's going
01:28to take.
01:29And that then has a pretty big impact on how wet and windy and where it's going to be wet
01:34and windy it will be this weekend.
01:36Then there's this area of low pressure.
01:38Now, that's set to reach us on Monday, which is further ahead.
01:42But because it's already developed and the models have it staying on the northern side of the jet stream, it's
01:49going to be such a mature feature by the time it reaches us.
01:51Actually, confidence for that feature is a little bit higher than the one that arrives on Saturday.
01:56But if we run it through and we do see, yes, the ridge across us currently, that wanes and we
02:01see the front coming in on Thursday, bringing some wet weather.
02:04Then we have another ridge building temporarily, so quite a day on Friday, before low pressure arrives for Saturday, bringing
02:10wet and windy weather mainly towards the northwest.
02:13Another ridge then later in the weekend and to start next week before that weather system, that mature low that
02:19I mentioned earlier.
02:20That then eventually arrives into Monday.
02:23So, yes, a flip-flop between troughs and ridges, low pressure and high pressure.
02:28That's the theme, really, through much of the next 10 days.
02:31But let's go back to Thursday.
02:33And I mentioned this frontal system that's arriving earlier.
02:36Yes, it is going to bring some rain to many areas.
02:38Starting off in the northwest and the east, it's actually going to be largely fine.
02:41The rain not really arriving until later on.
02:44And it could pep up a little bit through Thursday night into Friday.
02:48But the rainfall totals shouldn't cause too many problems.
02:50Obviously, we've had so much dry weather through summer that, you know, we'd need some pretty intense rain for us
02:57to see significant issues at the moment.
02:59So, in some places, that will still be quite welcome.
03:02And then we have the next ridge of high pressure falling behind.
03:05So, Friday, yes, there could be some lingering rain in the east, a few outbreaks of rain here and there.
03:09But a generally dry day for many.
03:13Then, yes, let's look at this area of low pressure.
03:16The first one, really, that comes in.
03:18The one that's set to arrive on Saturday.
03:20As I mentioned, it hasn't yet developed.
03:23So, how it interacts with the jet stream, how it's going to deepen, how it's going to actually track towards
03:29us across the Atlantic, that is still relatively uncertain.
03:32There's a lack of confidence between the models.
03:35Slight discrepancies, really, about the timing, the positioning.
03:38This is our Met Office global model here.
03:41EC, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, that's a bit quicker.
03:45That's a bit further north as well.
03:46But nonetheless, it does look like it will be northern and western areas where we see the wettest weather and
03:51the strongest winds.
03:53Further south and east, it's going to be drier here.
03:56So, looking through Saturday then, yes, a wet and windy picture for many northern and western parts initially.
04:02Further south, sticking with the dry weather, actually, for some towards the southeast, it will be largely fine through much
04:08of the day.
04:08Even some sunshine.
04:09But eventually, that rain will push through and then that will bring some outbreaks of rain overnight Saturday into Sunday
04:15here.
04:15But it won't be as heavy as it will have been further north and west.
04:19And the winds will be moderating a little bit as that comes through.
04:25Looking at the rainfall totals then, and here we have our 12-hour rainfall totals running through Saturday.
04:30And you can see the heavy rain coming in from the west, some relatively high totals.
04:34Now, I mentioned it has been so dry recently.
04:36And so, we're not too concerned with the absolute totals that we could see through the whole day.
04:42That being said, some places could see, well, 30 to 50 millimetres around western areas.
04:48And perhaps wettest cases are suggesting we could see maybe around 70 millimetres in some places.
04:53That's a substantial amount.
04:54But I guess it's the rates that we need to be more concerned about.
04:58Because if that rain comes in just a few hours, and it, well, it could, as that system's pushing its
05:05way.
05:05And that's when we could see some flash flooding, some surface water flooding.
05:08So, that could cause some problems.
05:09I do also want to highlight the winds.
05:11Earlier model runs, this time yesterday, it looked like it would be more of a wind impact from this feature
05:17coming through on Saturday.
05:18The winds now look like they've dropped down a little bit because of the position of the low.
05:23But nonetheless, we could still see gales, gusts of 50, maybe 60 miles per hour, some lee gustiness around some
05:28parts of Scotland, northeast England.
05:30That system then pushes through.
05:31Like I said, there will be some rain in the south overnight and into Sunday.
05:35But that then clears within the next ridge of high pressure, leading to a quieter day through the latter part
05:40of the weekend.
05:41And to start next week before that mature low to the northwest of us comes in.
05:46Before I talk on that, just to go back to the winds that we are going to see through this
05:51weekend.
05:51Yes, some lee gustiness, so inland areas could see some gusty winds.
05:55We do need to watch out for coastal areas.
05:56We are entering a period of spring tides, so that would exaggerate the issue.
06:02So, we could see some large waves.
06:03Do watch out for those.
06:05But back to Monday's low, and it's relatively far to the northwest of us.
06:09So, although it's quite a mature feature, it's relatively deep.
06:12It's quite far to the northwest.
06:15And so, you know, it's going to bring some wet and some windy weather.
06:19But at this stage, not overly concerned about it.
06:23And confidence, as I mentioned earlier, a little bit higher about this one than the one on Saturday.
06:29That being said, it is still a fair few days ahead.
06:32Looking at the confidence, and here I have various members from our model.
06:37And you can see this is the rainfall that's coming through this coming Monday.
06:42And you can see, generally, it's pretty consistent.
06:44I just wanted to highlight this, really, to show that most of the members are in agreement with the very
06:51wet weather,
06:52or the wettest weather, towards the northwest.
06:54Further south and east, it's likely to stay mostly dry.
06:56And there's not a huge amount of difference between each of these members, as I mentioned.
07:00And confidence is surprisingly high for four or five days ahead.
07:06Looking further ahead through next week, and the general gist, as I mentioned, lows, highs, lows, highs,
07:12will be for a bit of high pressure to come in again, mainly towards the southwest.
07:16That looks relatively likely.
07:17But we could still see some low-pressure systems toppling over the top of it.
07:21And I think we probably will at times next week.
07:24But further south, probably staying drier.
07:26Wednesday looks fairly similar to Tuesday.
07:29And then we see a bit of a shift, but it's more just a drop in confidence, really.
07:34Look at these percentages.
07:35They're not particularly high.
07:36So it's hard to be too clever with the detail.
07:40But I think there will be more changeable weather.
07:42But there are some models hinting that we could see higher pressure becoming more dominant.
07:47There is high pressure in some of the forecast over the near continent.
07:50That could push more in.
07:51And so we could see higher pressure, a ridge of higher pressure lasting for a little bit longer
07:56as we go deeper into September.
07:58But that's a bit beyond this 10-day period.
08:00So I'm not going to touch on that too much because, well, I'm not too confident about it.
08:05Anyway, on the whole, I think really what I've just gone through is all fairly standard weather for the time
08:11of year.
08:12It is autumn meteorologically.
08:13And the weather is going to feel pretty autumnal as well.
08:17Quick look at our temperatures.
08:19They're nothing particularly to write home about.
08:21We have seen a bit of a dip, a fresher feel through the middle of this week.
08:25Temperatures picked up a little bit through the latter stages of the week, still by night.
08:30So it could be a little bit chilly if you get any quieter periods.
08:33Probably the highest temperatures for a while will be Sunday, Monday.
08:36That's when we're going to see probably the warmest days for a fair while.
08:40It could be really for the rest of the month, the rest of the year maybe.
08:44But then temperatures, they're only around average.
08:48And even these ones, we're looking at mid-20s maximum by day towards the south.
08:52This picked Manchester somewhere relatively central as a guide.
08:55But most places have a similar trend in their temperatures.
08:58They're around average, a little bit above through the latter stages of this weekend
09:02and early part of next week before dipping down again closer to average for the time of year.
09:07If you do have plans this weekend and are really concerned about the low-pressure system
09:12that's coming into the northwest on Saturday,
09:14well, do make sure you check out our weekend forecast,
09:16which we'll be bringing to you tomorrow,
09:18because we should have a better idea about how things are going to develop
09:21once that low-pressure starts to become a bit more mature and come closer towards the UK.
09:26I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.
