This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 10/12/2025. Low pressure continues to bring further outbreaks of rain and above average temperatures through the next 10 days but there are signs the pattern will break to more settled weather in the run up to Christmas. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
00:00Hello, over the next 10 days, a repetitive pattern we've seen so far this December is set to continue.
00:07However, there are signs that after this 10-day period, in the lead-up to Christmas, the pattern will finally break.
00:14Now, more on that in a moment. First of all, let's have a look at this repetitive pattern.
00:19We've got a very active jet stream through the Atlantic.
00:21That's driving the unsettled wet weather we've seen over the past week or so and we'll continue to see over the next 10 days.
00:29You can see it remains very active indeed over the weekend and into next week.
00:34Now, why is it so active? Well, we've got continuous outbreaks of cold air over eastern areas of Canada, northeastern America.
00:42And that's fueling this jet stream, creating a breeding ground for areas of low pressure across the far west of the Atlantic.
00:50And those low pressure systems move eastwards across the Atlantic towards the UK, driving that wet weather.
00:56Now, these low pressure systems are bumping into higher pressure over Europe.
01:03And that's meaning that they are dipping down to the south and moving up to the north.
01:06And that's why we're getting this sort of southwesterly wind direction, our weather systems moving in from the southwest.
01:11And that's why we're getting so much rain, particularly across southwestern areas.
01:16And we will continue to see a pretty similar trend throughout this weekend.
01:21Now, we had Storm Bram earlier on this week.
01:23That's now moving away to the north of the UK.
01:26Behind it, we will see some respite between the further wet weather over the next few days.
01:31And a weather front will push through on Thursday night into Friday morning, perhaps lingering across the south and east.
01:37Another bit of respite through Saturday morning before the next weather front, this time bringing with it very warm air.
01:43It's actually a warm conveyor, that's what we call it, setting up for Saturday and Sunday, bringing some potentially quite wet weather.
01:50That should clear through through Sunday afternoon.
01:53Another spell of respite before the next area of low pressure pushes up to the northwest of the UK.
01:59A much smaller area of low pressure, but potentially quite an active one, bringing potentially some very strong winds and further wet weather to start the day,
02:08to start the new week on Monday.
02:11I'll show you more details on Monday's low pressure system, as there is some uncertainty in that a little bit later on.
02:17But for now, let's have a look at the rest of this week.
02:19And after Storm Bram, it is going to be somewhat more settled and actually very mild.
02:24A very mild start to the day on Thursday and a fairly mild feel as well through much of the day,
02:29even across the west where we will see a band of wet weather pushing in.
02:32It's quite a narrow band, so it will bring a short spell of potentially quite blustery rain across the country as it does move eastwards through Thursday night.
02:42Plenty of dry weather around, and once it does clear, it will turn a little bit cooler.
02:45A touch of frost potentially on Friday morning, particularly across northwestern areas.
02:50So a bit of a cooler feel to come on Friday.
02:53Now, the rain could linger across the south and east throughout Friday morning.
02:57It should clear by lunchtime, but there's a risk of some mist and fog around as well.
03:01And it will be a slightly cooler day, but lighter winds and plenty of sunshine as well.
03:05Temperatures are still above average for the time of year, and that trend is set to continue throughout the next 10 days.
03:13Then we'll see some showers starting to break out across northwestern areas.
03:16But for many of us, it should be a pretty dry end to the day on Friday and start to the weekend.
03:22But we've got the next weather front moving in from the northwest.
03:26So although it will remain largely dry across many eastern areas, through much of Saturday, a spell of very wet weather will push in from the north and west.
03:33And we could see rainfall totals starting to build up through the weekend.
03:37Now, that will push into the southeast through Sunday.
03:40It does turn a little bit cooler into the start of next week as well.
03:43Here are the rainfall totals building up through the weekend.
03:45And you can see, actually, the difference with this is that we'll see the rainfall totals increasing, actually, across more northwestern areas rather than across the southwest.
03:54Particularly parts of the Lake District and Cumbria is a particular watch point for us over the next few days.
03:58So do stay tuned to the forecast if you're in these areas, as there could be some impacts from rainfall, particularly over the high ground, across parts of northwest England as well as northwest Scotland.
04:08It is going to be a very warm weekend, a very mild weekend, in fact, particularly overnight.
04:14These are the overnight temperatures on Saturday night.
04:16I think this could be one of the mildest nights we've seen throughout this week.
04:19This is compared to average.
04:21You can see temperatures a good six degrees above average overnight.
04:25It will also feel quite mild by day as well.
04:29Now, as I said, there is another system on the way through Monday.
04:33It's a very small area of low pressure.
04:35It's actually just elongating from this slight trough in the isobars.
04:39And it's not yet formed.
04:40So there is still some uncertainty with that.
04:43But it is expected to move up to the northwest of the UK, tightly packing those isobars as it moves up through the northwest, bringing a spell of wet and windy weather, particularly to northwestern areas.
04:53But I think most areas will probably see a fairly unsettled day through Monday.
04:59Now, as I mentioned, there is some uncertainty with the position of that low pressure.
05:03And we can look at this chart here.
05:05This is the Dalmatian plot.
05:06It's from ECMWF, the European Long Range Forecasting System.
05:12And we can see here, this is the UK just here.
05:15And this area I'm circling here, that's that area of low pressure.
05:19And you can see different colored dots and slightly different positions show the potential positions of that low pressure system.
05:26Now, the color represents how deep the area of low pressure is.
05:30Now, some of them are the slightly bluer colors.
05:33That's not quite so deep.
05:34That wouldn't be too concerning.
05:36But when we start to see more of these greens, perhaps even these orange colors, that's when that could bring some potentially disruptive strength wins.
05:43And you can see there are a few greens and oranges in there as well.
05:46So it's still a few days away and another thing to keep an eye on through the next few days.
05:52Then after that, we'll likely see a slightly more settled day on Tuesday.
05:56Then from Wednesday, we'll see the return of that low pressure moving in from the west.
06:03And by the time we get to Friday, it's a very similar setup.
06:07Yes, the percentage chances do reduce.
06:09But you can see that all three of these, these are the three most likely pressure setups.
06:14They equate to about 50% chance.
06:17And they all show low pressure systems to the north or northwest of the UK, bringing in westerly winds, wet weather from the west as well.
06:25So it's likely to remain pretty unsettled through much of next week.
06:28Westerly winds, though, do continue to bring mild air to the UK.
06:32So it will remain fairly mild.
06:34Now, these are the ECMWF temperature charts throughout the next 14 days.
06:39There's lots of lines because this is the ensemble output.
06:42That's where we run the model multiple times and see how the different outcomes vary from one another to give us an idea of the certainty.
06:51And you can see that through the next 10 days, well, at least at the start of the next 10 days, we remain fairly mild.
06:58This is for London.
06:59We're above average.
07:00Yes, there's some dips.
07:01That shows overnight, some overnight periods will be colder.
07:05Some will be milder.
07:06And you can see here as we head into the start of next week, we remain on the milder side of things.
07:13There's a bit of a dip as we head into Wednesday.
07:15That's that more settled period for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
07:19And then we start to increase that spread in the temperature lines.
07:23And actually, the trend starts to go downwards.
07:26Now, that's giving you a sneak preview at what we're looking at for the week leading up to Christmas.
07:30As I mentioned earlier, there is potentially going to be a change in this pattern, this mild, wet and windy pattern.
07:38Now, it's a pretty similar trend further north as well.
07:41There are some differences over the first five days.
07:44That's because of the timing of the rain, particularly moving in from the north and west means that some overnight periods won't be quite as cold in the south as they will be in the north.
07:53But again, you can see from the end of next week, the start of the weekend of the 20th, we start to see that downward trend in the temperatures.
08:02And that's because we've got an increasing likelihood of seeing higher pressure building in.
08:06Now, this shows you the probability of the different pressure setups.
08:10And it's quite clear that we've got blues in charge for the next 10 days.
08:15For the next 10 days, that's low pressure in charge.
08:18It's low pressure southwesterly dominated, at least until this weekend.
08:24Then we start to see potentially some more westerly, so the low pressure just slightly further north.
08:29That's why we could see the rain becoming more focused across more northwestern areas rather than the south and west.
08:35And then as we head towards the weekend, the reds start to creep in.
08:38That's high pressure coming in.
08:40And by the time we get to Tuesday the 23rd, it's actually more likely to be higher pressure dominated than lower pressure dominated at this time.
08:48Now, this is still 14 days away, so things could change.
08:52The timing could shift as well.
08:54And there's a lot to be said for the different colours, shades of red we have here.
08:58If we have high pressure centred across more southern areas, that could just bring drier weather.
09:02But if the high pressure, it becomes more northerly shifted, that could bring more northerly winds, which bring much colder weather.
09:09So there's the potential to see some colder, more settled weather in the lead up to Christmas.
09:14So after the very soggy start to December, please don't give up hopes on a frosty Christmas.
09:20But there is still a lot to play for for the Christmas forecast.
09:23But it's definitely going to be remaining wet and unsettled for the next 10 days.
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