00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, covering Christmas, covering the rest
00:04of 2025 and the start of next year.
00:08And we're likely to end the year on a high, high pressure, which is fitting because we've
00:14spent much of the year talking about high pressure, not only high pressure, but high
00:18temperatures.
00:18It has of course been the UK's warmest year on record.
00:20It's also been the UK's sunniest year on record.
00:24Hard to believe all that sunshine we experienced when the last few months have been so wet.
00:29But here's a throwback to spring 2025, the pressure anomaly close to the UK, much higher
00:36than average pressure throughout that season.
00:38No wonder it was the warmest spring on record and the sunniest spring on record.
00:43In fact, between January and August, six out of eight months, we experienced higher than
00:48average pressure near the UK.
00:51But that all changed in September.
00:53This is the pressure anomaly for autumn 2025.
00:55For the last few months, we've been talking about low pressure after low pressure because
01:00of a powerful jet stream, bringing in frequent depressions from the Atlantic.
01:05This though is the new shape of the jet stream, with the weather flipping once more for the
01:10final week of the year.
01:11The jet stream now in a much more amplified pattern across the northern hemisphere, allowing
01:17high pressure to form close to the UK.
01:20That high pressure developing as we go into Christmas to the northeast of the UK.
01:25But there are a couple of complications.
01:27One being a branch of the jet stream picking up a cold source of air near the continent and
01:34tightening up the isobars close to the UK, leading to increasingly strong winds for December
01:41the 25th.
01:42That's why we've issued a yellow wind warning.
01:45Now, at the Met Office, we don't base weather warnings on thresholds.
01:49We base them on impacts.
01:50And when it comes to impacts, context is key.
01:54So, these kinds of wind speeds, 50, 55 miles an hour, around exposed parts of Welsh mountains,
02:01Welsh coast, southwest England, for example, wouldn't necessarily cause the kinds of impacts
02:06that we're expecting on a typical Thursday in December.
02:10But of course, it's not a typical Thursday.
02:11It's Christmas Day, people out walking in the hills, people jumping in the sea on a Christmas
02:17day swim.
02:18So, it is worth flagging the possibility of these kinds of winds coming in on an unusual
02:24direction northeast of these 50, 55 miles an hour, accompanied by large waves around the
02:30coast.
02:31Worth flagging that for anyone who's got outdoor activities planned.
02:36But that wind is bringing in clearer air at the same time.
02:42So, plenty of sunshine to start off Christmas Day.
02:44Plenty of blue skies, some patchy cloud into North Sea coast.
02:48But otherwise, for many, it's a dry and bright day.
02:52There is one area that we're keeping a close eye on.
02:55This area of showery precipitation in the far southwest could affect the Scillies, could affect
03:01the far southwest of Cornwall, for example, most likely rain at lower levels.
03:06But if it bumps into higher parts, such as Bodmin Moor, for example, always a chance of a flake
03:12or two of snow.
03:13Of course, for the Met Office definition, that's all you need for a technical white Christmas.
03:17But for the vast majority, it is a dry and bright Christmas Day, albeit a windy and a cold
03:23Christmas Day.
03:24Five or six Celsius on the thermometer.
03:26But these are the feels-like temperatures in the afternoon, minus one Celsius in the
03:32south.
03:32Bear that in mind if you're heading out.
03:34Wrap up warm.
03:36Now, Boxing Day, more of the same.
03:38Still got that easterly wind in the south.
03:40Not quite as strong, but still feeling cold.
03:44Plenty of bright weather.
03:45Areas of cloud here and there.
03:46Southwestern parts, for example, in the northeast.
03:49In between, plenty of sunny skies.
03:51Temperatures, typically five or six Celsius.
03:54Add on that wind, one, two Celsius at best in terms of feels-like temperatures.
04:01And why is that?
04:02Because where the air is coming from is coming all the way from the Arctic via parts of Finland,
04:07western Russia, through Europe.
04:09These are cold places at this time of year.
04:12It's coming in over the continent so it doesn't warm up over the sea.
04:15But if we compare that with Saturday, the 27th of December, well, a day or so before, the
04:23air is coming from the east.
04:24But if you trace all the way back several days before, that's what these lines show,
04:28the air is coming from northern Canada.
04:31Now, northern Canada at this time of year is cold.
04:33It then pushes into green and also cold.
04:35But it does spend some time over the sea, the sea not quite as cold as it might be at the
04:40end of winter.
04:41Sea temperatures are above average at the time of year.
04:44So, with it meandering around over the sea, spending some time over water, it's not going
04:51to be quite as cold in terms of its air source as Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
04:56The reason that air source is changing is because the position and the orientation of the high
05:01pressure is changing.
05:01It's drifting from the northeast towards the northwest of the UK.
05:05Not only that, but it's strengthening.
05:06This is a very high area of high pressure.
05:10Here is the probability that pressure will exceed 1,045 hectopascals.
05:15You can see greatest chance, somewhere near the fair roads, of pressure being between 1,045
05:21and 1,050.
05:23Unusually high pressure for this time of year in this part of the world.
05:28Some station records across northern Scotland could be broken.
05:33Some local spots could see their highest December pressure on record.
05:37But the UK record, unlikely to be broken.
05:41So, a very large area of high pressure sitting to the north of the UK with air coming around
05:46it from the Atlantic and arriving in from the east.
05:49We've still got this east to northeasterly wind across much of the south and the east on Saturday.
05:56It's still going to bring areas of cloud in, increasingly so I suspect, with more of an
06:00oceanic source.
06:02But there'll be some breaks in that cloud.
06:04It's a thin layer of cloud.
06:05It's fickle.
06:06It's likely to break up in places.
06:08So, the greatest chance of cloud towards the east and central parts, greatest chance of
06:11sunshine coming through towards the west.
06:14Temperature's a little bit higher compared with the next couple of days, 7 or 8 Celsius for
06:17many.
06:19It's actually going to be colder this time over parts of Scotland.
06:21And that's actually the theme through the weekend, turning colder in Scotland, less
06:25cold further south.
06:26Because we've got clear skies over Scotland, much of central and western Scotland, certainly
06:31lighter winds, overnight frosts will form.
06:35And with those overnight frosts forming and some freezing fog patches, some spots are likely
06:41to stay below freezing through the day across parts of central and northern Scotland.
06:45And further south, more likely 6 or 7 Celsius.
06:48Not far from average for the time of year.
06:53Now, heading into the rest of the week, into the start of next week, it's staying dry.
06:59Just to give you an impression, hammer home how dry it's likely to be.
07:02This is the rolling rainfall total through the next five days.
07:06Christmas Day, Boxing Day, into the weekend, some faint colours showing up there.
07:11Likely overdone, actually, in the modelling.
07:13Just indicative of one or two drizzly showers coming in from the east with that thin layer
07:17of cloud.
07:18Otherwise, the white effectively highlights no rain for virtually everyone between now and
07:25the end of the weekend.
07:26And it's likely to stay that way into the start of next week.
07:30But the high pressure is on the move.
07:32It's drifting out towards the west.
07:35And by Monday, Tuesday, we start to see some question marks about wind direction.
07:40Because that will all come down to exactly where that high pressure will sit.
07:45It looks like there could be some colder weather coming into the north of Scotland for a time
07:48early next week.
07:49Less cold elsewhere.
07:51But after that, where that high pressure sits will make a big difference in terms of UK-wide
07:58temperatures.
07:59And I'm talking about the change in weather pattern through the change in year.
08:05Will the high pressure sit just to the west of the UK or just to the southwest of the UK?
08:10Those are the two scenarios we're looking at for New Year's Eve onwards, effectively.
08:16And this probability plot shows the most likely weather pattern for the next couple of weeks.
08:20And you can see, well, very confident, a lot of confidence from the computer models for
08:27this kind of weather pattern.
08:29High pressure to the north right the way through until 2026.
08:33But then, first couple of days of 2026, another weather pattern is in the mix.
08:40And these two scenarios are coming through in the modelling.
08:45There's not a great deal of difference in the grand scheme of things between these two
08:50scenarios.
08:50But at a UK level, it does make a difference.
08:54Now, the first scenario is that high pressure will push out to the west and sit just to the
09:00west of the UK there and allow a northerly to arrive for the start of the year next year
09:06with low pressure to the east.
09:08That would bring significantly colder weather.
09:11Arctic winds, sleet and snow showers into the north and the east and a marked decline in
09:19temperatures.
09:20But the other scenario that's coming through in the modelling is for the high pressure not
09:24to sit there, but sit further south to the southwest of the UK.
09:28And in this scenario, this is one of the computer model runs from the European model.
09:33The other one was another computer model run.
09:36In this scenario, winds are coming in from the west-northwest.
09:40They're much less cold.
09:41In fact, these are the kinds of temperatures we'd expect on the 2nd of January if this scenario
09:45came off 9, 10, 11 Celsius.
09:50So a bit milder compared with the start of next week.
09:53The colder scenario where we get the Arctic winds, well, that looks something a bit more,
10:02I've gone past it, but it effectively showed 0 to 3 Celsius across the UK.
10:10This, though, is the most likely temperature across the UK for the 2nd of January.
10:16Those two scenarios are at both ends of the spectrum.
10:21These are the most likely temperatures, not far from average, similar to the start of next
10:26week, because that north-to-northeasterly wind direction solution where you've got winds
10:34from the Arctic is considered a 20% to 30% chance.
10:39It's more likely that our winds will come in from the west-northwest around the top of
10:44an area of high pressure sitting to the southwest.
10:46That would bring increasingly changeable conditions to the north of the UK with some outbreaks
10:52of rain and so on.
10:54But on the whole, temperatures wouldn't deviate far from average.
10:59So heading into the rest of the year.
11:05Apologies for some glitches in the graphics there, but here it seemed to freeze a little
11:09bit.
11:09So hopefully you've got the gist.
11:12At the turn of the year, there are two scenarios coming through in the computer modelling.
11:17One is for a cold northerly, Arctic winds, wintry showers in the north and the east.
11:22That is considered 20% to 30% chance.
11:26More likely is for a north-west of the airflow around the top of an area of high pressure sitting
11:31to the southwest of the UK.
11:33That would bring temperatures close to average or a touch below, and it would bring some outbreaks
11:39of rain, some weather fronts into the north of the UK.
11:41But for many, it's going to stay dry with higher pressure remaining close to the UK.
11:47So a settled start to the new year, most likely before perhaps things get more changeable through
11:55the first week.
11:56We'll keep you updated on all of that on our YouTube channel as ever.
11:59That's me for 2025.
12:01Thank you for all of your support this year.
12:04I hope you have a peaceful Christmas and a happy new year.
12:07Bye-bye.
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