- 7 weeks ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 24/12/2025.
High pressure is back but will it stay with us for the rest of the year? And is there any sign of colder weather?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
High pressure is back but will it stay with us for the rest of the year? And is there any sign of colder weather?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, covering Christmas, covering the rest
00:04of 2025 and the start of next year.
00:08And we're likely to end the year on a high, high pressure, which is fitting because we've
00:14spent much of the year talking about high pressure, not only high pressure, but high
00:18temperatures.
00:18It has of course been the UK's warmest year on record.
00:20It's also been the UK's sunniest year on record.
00:24Hard to believe all that sunshine we experienced when the last few months have been so wet.
00:29But here's a throwback to spring 2025, the pressure anomaly close to the UK, much higher
00:36than average pressure throughout that season.
00:38No wonder it was the warmest spring on record and the sunniest spring on record.
00:43In fact, between January and August, six out of eight months, we experienced higher than
00:48average pressure near the UK.
00:51But that all changed in September.
00:53This is the pressure anomaly for autumn 2025.
00:55For the last few months, we've been talking about low pressure after low pressure because
01:00of a powerful jet stream, bringing in frequent depressions from the Atlantic.
01:05This though is the new shape of the jet stream, with the weather flipping once more for the
01:10final week of the year.
01:11The jet stream now in a much more amplified pattern across the northern hemisphere, allowing
01:17high pressure to form close to the UK.
01:20That high pressure developing as we go into Christmas to the northeast of the UK.
01:25But there are a couple of complications.
01:27One being a branch of the jet stream picking up a cold source of air near the continent and
01:34tightening up the isobars close to the UK, leading to increasingly strong winds for December
01:41the 25th.
01:42That's why we've issued a yellow wind warning.
01:45Now, at the Met Office, we don't base weather warnings on thresholds.
01:49We base them on impacts.
01:50And when it comes to impacts, context is key.
01:54So, these kinds of wind speeds, 50, 55 miles an hour, around exposed parts of Welsh mountains,
02:01Welsh coast, southwest England, for example, wouldn't necessarily cause the kinds of impacts
02:06that we're expecting on a typical Thursday in December.
02:10But of course, it's not a typical Thursday.
02:11It's Christmas Day, people out walking in the hills, people jumping in the sea on a Christmas
02:17day swim.
02:18So, it is worth flagging the possibility of these kinds of winds coming in on an unusual
02:24direction northeast of these 50, 55 miles an hour, accompanied by large waves around the
02:30coast.
02:31Worth flagging that for anyone who's got outdoor activities planned.
02:36But that wind is bringing in clearer air at the same time.
02:42So, plenty of sunshine to start off Christmas Day.
02:44Plenty of blue skies, some patchy cloud into North Sea coast.
02:48But otherwise, for many, it's a dry and bright day.
02:52There is one area that we're keeping a close eye on.
02:55This area of showery precipitation in the far southwest could affect the Scillies, could affect
03:01the far southwest of Cornwall, for example, most likely rain at lower levels.
03:06But if it bumps into higher parts, such as Bodmin Moor, for example, always a chance of a flake
03:12or two of snow.
03:13Of course, for the Met Office definition, that's all you need for a technical white Christmas.
03:17But for the vast majority, it is a dry and bright Christmas Day, albeit a windy and a cold
03:23Christmas Day.
03:24Five or six Celsius on the thermometer.
03:26But these are the feels-like temperatures in the afternoon, minus one Celsius in the
03:32south.
03:32Bear that in mind if you're heading out.
03:34Wrap up warm.
03:36Now, Boxing Day, more of the same.
03:38Still got that easterly wind in the south.
03:40Not quite as strong, but still feeling cold.
03:44Plenty of bright weather.
03:45Areas of cloud here and there.
03:46Southwestern parts, for example, in the northeast.
03:49In between, plenty of sunny skies.
03:51Temperatures, typically five or six Celsius.
03:54Add on that wind, one, two Celsius at best in terms of feels-like temperatures.
04:01And why is that?
04:02Because where the air is coming from is coming all the way from the Arctic via parts of Finland,
04:07western Russia, through Europe.
04:09These are cold places at this time of year.
04:12It's coming in over the continent so it doesn't warm up over the sea.
04:15But if we compare that with Saturday, the 27th of December, well, a day or so before, the
04:23air is coming from the east.
04:24But if you trace all the way back several days before, that's what these lines show,
04:28the air is coming from northern Canada.
04:31Now, northern Canada at this time of year is cold.
04:33It then pushes into green and also cold.
04:35But it does spend some time over the sea, the sea not quite as cold as it might be at the
04:40end of winter.
04:41Sea temperatures are above average at the time of year.
04:44So, with it meandering around over the sea, spending some time over water, it's not going
04:51to be quite as cold in terms of its air source as Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
04:56The reason that air source is changing is because the position and the orientation of the high
05:01pressure is changing.
05:01It's drifting from the northeast towards the northwest of the UK.
05:05Not only that, but it's strengthening.
05:06This is a very high area of high pressure.
05:10Here is the probability that pressure will exceed 1,045 hectopascals.
05:15You can see greatest chance, somewhere near the fair roads, of pressure being between 1,045
05:21and 1,050.
05:23Unusually high pressure for this time of year in this part of the world.
05:28Some station records across northern Scotland could be broken.
05:33Some local spots could see their highest December pressure on record.
05:37But the UK record, unlikely to be broken.
05:41So, a very large area of high pressure sitting to the north of the UK with air coming around
05:46it from the Atlantic and arriving in from the east.
05:49We've still got this east to northeasterly wind across much of the south and the east on Saturday.
05:56It's still going to bring areas of cloud in, increasingly so I suspect, with more of an
06:00oceanic source.
06:02But there'll be some breaks in that cloud.
06:04It's a thin layer of cloud.
06:05It's fickle.
06:06It's likely to break up in places.
06:08So, the greatest chance of cloud towards the east and central parts, greatest chance of
06:11sunshine coming through towards the west.
06:14Temperature's a little bit higher compared with the next couple of days, 7 or 8 Celsius for
06:17many.
06:19It's actually going to be colder this time over parts of Scotland.
06:21And that's actually the theme through the weekend, turning colder in Scotland, less
06:25cold further south.
06:26Because we've got clear skies over Scotland, much of central and western Scotland, certainly
06:31lighter winds, overnight frosts will form.
06:35And with those overnight frosts forming and some freezing fog patches, some spots are likely
06:41to stay below freezing through the day across parts of central and northern Scotland.
06:45And further south, more likely 6 or 7 Celsius.
06:48Not far from average for the time of year.
06:53Now, heading into the rest of the week, into the start of next week, it's staying dry.
06:59Just to give you an impression, hammer home how dry it's likely to be.
07:02This is the rolling rainfall total through the next five days.
07:06Christmas Day, Boxing Day, into the weekend, some faint colours showing up there.
07:11Likely overdone, actually, in the modelling.
07:13Just indicative of one or two drizzly showers coming in from the east with that thin layer
07:17of cloud.
07:18Otherwise, the white effectively highlights no rain for virtually everyone between now and
07:25the end of the weekend.
07:26And it's likely to stay that way into the start of next week.
07:30But the high pressure is on the move.
07:32It's drifting out towards the west.
07:35And by Monday, Tuesday, we start to see some question marks about wind direction.
07:40Because that will all come down to exactly where that high pressure will sit.
07:45It looks like there could be some colder weather coming into the north of Scotland for a time
07:48early next week.
07:49Less cold elsewhere.
07:51But after that, where that high pressure sits will make a big difference in terms of UK-wide
07:58temperatures.
07:59And I'm talking about the change in weather pattern through the change in year.
08:05Will the high pressure sit just to the west of the UK or just to the southwest of the UK?
08:10Those are the two scenarios we're looking at for New Year's Eve onwards, effectively.
08:16And this probability plot shows the most likely weather pattern for the next couple of weeks.
08:20And you can see, well, very confident, a lot of confidence from the computer models for
08:27this kind of weather pattern.
08:29High pressure to the north right the way through until 2026.
08:33But then, first couple of days of 2026, another weather pattern is in the mix.
08:40And these two scenarios are coming through in the modelling.
08:45There's not a great deal of difference in the grand scheme of things between these two
08:50scenarios.
08:50But at a UK level, it does make a difference.
08:54Now, the first scenario is that high pressure will push out to the west and sit just to the
09:00west of the UK there and allow a northerly to arrive for the start of the year next year
09:06with low pressure to the east.
09:08That would bring significantly colder weather.
09:11Arctic winds, sleet and snow showers into the north and the east and a marked decline in
09:19temperatures.
09:20But the other scenario that's coming through in the modelling is for the high pressure not
09:24to sit there, but sit further south to the southwest of the UK.
09:28And in this scenario, this is one of the computer model runs from the European model.
09:33The other one was another computer model run.
09:36In this scenario, winds are coming in from the west-northwest.
09:40They're much less cold.
09:41In fact, these are the kinds of temperatures we'd expect on the 2nd of January if this scenario
09:45came off 9, 10, 11 Celsius.
09:50So a bit milder compared with the start of next week.
09:53The colder scenario where we get the Arctic winds, well, that looks something a bit more,
10:02I've gone past it, but it effectively showed 0 to 3 Celsius across the UK.
10:10This, though, is the most likely temperature across the UK for the 2nd of January.
10:16Those two scenarios are at both ends of the spectrum.
10:21These are the most likely temperatures, not far from average, similar to the start of next
10:26week, because that north-to-northeasterly wind direction solution where you've got winds
10:34from the Arctic is considered a 20% to 30% chance.
10:39It's more likely that our winds will come in from the west-northwest around the top of
10:44an area of high pressure sitting to the southwest.
10:46That would bring increasingly changeable conditions to the north of the UK with some outbreaks
10:52of rain and so on.
10:54But on the whole, temperatures wouldn't deviate far from average.
10:59So heading into the rest of the year.
11:05Apologies for some glitches in the graphics there, but here it seemed to freeze a little
11:09bit.
11:09So hopefully you've got the gist.
11:12At the turn of the year, there are two scenarios coming through in the computer modelling.
11:17One is for a cold northerly, Arctic winds, wintry showers in the north and the east.
11:22That is considered 20% to 30% chance.
11:26More likely is for a north-west of the airflow around the top of an area of high pressure sitting
11:31to the southwest of the UK.
11:33That would bring temperatures close to average or a touch below, and it would bring some outbreaks
11:39of rain, some weather fronts into the north of the UK.
11:41But for many, it's going to stay dry with higher pressure remaining close to the UK.
11:47So a settled start to the new year, most likely before perhaps things get more changeable through
11:55the first week.
11:56We'll keep you updated on all of that on our YouTube channel as ever.
11:59That's me for 2025.
12:01Thank you for all of your support this year.
12:04I hope you have a peaceful Christmas and a happy new year.
12:07Bye-bye.
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