- 3 hours ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 25/02/2026.
Some further rain to come before higher pressure looks set to build for the first week of March.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
Some further rain to come before higher pressure looks set to build for the first week of March.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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00:00Recently, some parts of the UK have had a bit more sunshine, a bit more in the way of dry
00:05weather than we've had through large chunks of the year so far.
00:08But is it going to hang around? No. Is it going to return? Probably.
00:14If we look at the probability plot for the next two weeks and we can see lower pressure generally in
00:20control through the next few days.
00:22So after an exceptionally mild day, particularly in the southeast on Wednesday, things are going to be a bit more
00:27changeable.
00:27Well, we're going to see temperatures dropping with that as well as we go through Thursday, Friday.
00:31There'll be some rain pushing through. I'll come on to the detail in a second.
00:34Saturday at the moment actually looks largely fine before more unsettled weather arrives.
00:38But as we go into the beginning of March, the beginning of meteorological spring and through that first week of
00:44March,
00:45there are signs that higher pressure is going to be more dominant.
00:49Now, exactly where that higher pressure is going to be sitting and therefore exactly how dry and also how warm
00:56it will be.
00:56Well, that's still all to play for. But nonetheless, there are signs that things are going to be a little
01:03bit drier,
01:03a little bit more settled than perhaps definitely than we've had through much of this year so far.
01:08But let's go through the details before that. And currently we do have the jet stream.
01:13It's actually quite strong to the west of the UK out in the Atlantic, but then it dips down.
01:18And then there's a bit riding up just over western parts of the UK at the moment.
01:23And with that, then we do have an air of low pressure towards the northwest,
01:26and that's bringing some cloudy wet weather here, drier and warmer towards the southeast.
01:31One thing I did want to highlight is the stark contrast in temperatures over the other side of the Atlantic.
01:37Very cold air across northern parts at the moment.
01:38Not really affecting us, though, because we have that mild air across us currently.
01:42But with the weather system coming its way in as we go through into Thursday,
01:47we are going to see that milder air clearing away and so temperatures dropping.
01:50With that, a lot of cloud, a lot of rain for many places on Thursday.
01:54A band of rain making its way southeastwards.
01:57Not as much sunshine even in the southeast as we've seen on Wednesday,
02:02clouding over and with that temperatures a fair bit lower.
02:05The heaviest, most persistent rain will be across parts of Wales and also into southwest England
02:10as this front makes its way south and southeastwards, eventually clearing away.
02:15Showery bursts across parts of Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland too
02:18as a swathe of wetter weather again comes in across parts of western UK, really,
02:25as we go through Thursday night and into Friday.
02:27So let's look at the rainfall totals that we can expect.
02:30And here we have our 24-hour rainfall totals as we go through Thursday and into Friday.
02:35Now, initially, the wettest place is across western parts of Scotland
02:38because that's where the rain's starting off,
02:40where we've already seen a fair amount of rain through Wednesday.
02:43But as we go through Thursday and overnight into Friday,
02:46we can see some higher rainfall totals building up across parts of southwest England
02:50and perhaps more so western Wales, maybe even northwest England as well.
02:55Quite widely in these areas, we're looking 10, 20 millimetres,
02:58maybe 30 to 50 millimetres over higher ground and perhaps locally 60 to 70 millimetres.
03:04Now, it has been relatively dry compared to what we saw through much of January
03:10and the start of February recently.
03:11But nonetheless, some places are still very saturated.
03:15The ground's very wet.
03:16There is still some flood water in places.
03:18And so these kind of totals could cause some further issues.
03:22So worth bearing in mind that it is looking pretty wet again in these areas as we go through Thursday
03:27and particularly overnight into Friday as well.
03:30But what happens thereafter?
03:31Well, we got off to a quite a cloudy and rather wet start on Friday.
03:36This band of rain could be quite heavy over parts of northern England.
03:39And it's gradually shifting away towards the east-northeast.
03:43But it's taking quite a bit of time to do so.
03:46So a fair amount of rainfall areas under this band here.
03:49Towards the south and also towards the north, some drier weather.
03:52There are across parts of Scotland, a fair few showers.
03:55And some of these could be a bit wintry.
03:56So some sleet, some snow mixed in with them as well.
03:59Worth noting temperatures, well, similar-ish to Thursday, really.
04:03Nowhere near as high as what we're seeing through Wednesday.
04:05Temperatures around four or five degrees lower.
04:07And with some blustery winds, I should have mentioned blustery winds on Thursday,
04:12still quite windy as well.
04:13On Friday, they'll make it feel a fair bit cooler than it does currently,
04:17particularly across parts of the southeast where it is so exceptionally mild.
04:21Then as we go through Friday night and into Saturday,
04:24we have a ridge of high pressure building.
04:26It's only a temporary ridge.
04:27But nonetheless, it's going to bring some quieter weather as we go through into Saturday morning.
04:33As a result, there will be some clear skies around.
04:35So it could be a bit of a chilly start on Saturday morning,
04:38maybe even a touch of frost in some places.
04:41But then Saturday itself actually looks like a generally fine day.
04:45Plenty of sunshine through the morning, perhaps a bit more cloud building up as we go into the afternoon.
04:50But really, wow, it's looking largely fine.
04:53Decent amount of dry and at times sunny weather for most of us
04:56as we go through the last day of meteorological spring.
05:00But it doesn't last.
05:02Worth highlighting as well that it is chilly as we go through Saturday, particularly to start.
05:08And whilst temperatures are only really by day around average for the time of year,
05:13it is going to feel a bit cooler than it has done through Tuesday through Wednesday,
05:17where we've had some decent sunshine.
05:19It's felt exceptionally mild for the time of year.
05:22Not quite that feeling as we go through Saturday,
05:24with temperatures a fair bit lower, despite the fact that there will be that sunny weather.
05:28As I mentioned, it doesn't last.
05:30We have rain coming in from the west as we go through later Saturday and overnight into Sunday.
05:35Heavy at times, quite persistent rain.
05:37Some uncertainty as to exactly where the heaviest rain is going to be sitting.
05:41But it looks like it's going to hang around for quite a while
05:44because there's this waving frontal feature which can linger over parts of Scotland,
05:48Northern Ireland, maybe northwest England as well.
05:51So yes, it is looking quite wet.
05:53Towards the south-southeast, a drier picture.
05:55But nonetheless, we could see a bit of rain arriving.
05:58But if we look at our rainfall totals as we go through Sunday,
06:02and yes, it's across the northwest of the UK this time that we're likely to see the highest rainfall totals,
06:08could be a little bit wetter than what we're seeing through Thursday into Friday.
06:13So Sunday into Monday, perhaps worst case scenario,
06:17some places, southwest Scotland, maybe the far northwest of England,
06:20could be looking at around 100 millimetres of rain building up.
06:24So that's a substantial amount, could cause some problems.
06:27Like I said, there is a bit of uncertainty as to how far north the heaviest rain will be.
06:32The Met Office model has the heaviest rain kind of in this area,
06:35southwest Scotland, northwest England.
06:37Other models, EC, for example, has it more over west than Scotland.
06:40Northern Ireland could see a fair amount of rain, 50 millimetres plus perhaps.
06:43And again, if the rain's a bit further south, then maybe parts of Wales could see some heavy rain as
06:49well.
06:49Fortunately, it does look like it will be in a slightly different place to where we're seeing the heaviest rain
06:54a few days earlier.
06:55But nonetheless, we could see some impacts as a result of this wet weather that's coming through.
07:01But what happens thereafter?
07:03Well, yes, signs of high pressure returning.
07:07And if we look at the anomaly pressure chart from ECMWF and the pinks indicating higher than average pressure across
07:15much of the UK,
07:16well, all of the UK, but particularly across the central southern parts, less likely across northern areas.
07:22And this is the theme through that first week of March, so from Monday the 2nd to Monday the 9th.
07:27And this goes in line with the idea of something a bit more settled, like I showed you at the
07:31start,
07:32the higher pressure, exactly where the high pressure is going to be sitting.
07:34Well, that's all important and the details still to be firmed up on.
07:38But yes, it does look like things will be drier.
07:41That being said, we could still see some fronts coming through, some wetter weather at times,
07:46mainly towards the northwest.
07:47But the further south and east you are, the greater chance you have of some prolonged dry weather as we
07:52go through that week.
07:54Let's look at some Met Office possible scenarios for the first few days of March and starting off on Monday
08:02the 2nd of March.
08:03And the most likely setup has this sort of transition day, if you will.
08:07So we still have that wet weather that's coming through Saturday night into Sunday,
08:10so some pretty unsettled weather to start the week.
08:13But it does look like it's going to be clearing away with higher pressure building in.
08:17The 2nd and 3rd most likely setups, well, the 2nd most likely setup has that high pressure building in just
08:22that little bit quicker and arriving.
08:24And then the 3rd most likely, well, it's not a particularly high percentage chance.
08:28It tells a slightly different story, but the high pressure is around.
08:31But this goes in, if we pick the most likely, so a 45% chance of high pressure starting to
08:37build in, pushing that weather system away.
08:39And it's worth remembering that this is a very different setup to what we've had through a large chunk of
08:442026 so far.
08:46Remember, through March of the year, we had high pressure sitting over Scandinavia, cold air here blocking our weather.
08:53So whilst we had low pressures arriving, they just couldn't rattle through like we often see at this time of
08:58year.
08:58Instead, they got stuck.
08:59And that's why the rain felt pretty relentless.
09:02It was pretty relentless.
09:04But we've all changed.
09:05And so that high of Scandinavia, that's gone.
09:08And so now whilst there will be some wet weather coming through, you know, we have rain Thursday, Friday, like
09:13I mentioned,
09:13then ridge of high pressure on Saturday and then more rain Sunday and into Monday.
09:18It's spells of rain that will just move through and then there will be drier weather in between.
09:21And that's what we have as we go through next week.
09:24So the most likely setup for next Tuesday has high pressure across the UK building its way in.
09:30And so that could lead to some more settled weather for many of us.
09:34Still, most likely towards the south.
09:37So across northern and western parts or northwest, the UK could still see some fronts toppling their way in.
09:42But I think we're going to see things quietening down a little bit as we go through that week.
09:47And the second and third most likely setups, they're very different where the high pressure is,
09:52but all the time has pressure nearby.
09:54You can see with the second most likely setup, a greater chance of some rain pushing into those northwestern parts
09:59of the UK.
10:00So not a guarantee that everywhere is going to turn drier,
10:03but there are signs that many of us will have a bit more in the way of dry weather.
10:08Similar picture for most as we go through into Wednesday.
10:11By Thursday, maybe a slight blip perhaps.
10:16I mentioned there will still be a mobile pattern of sorts.
10:19So there could be some more changeable weather arriving at times.
10:22It's not necessarily going to be high pressure all the time.
10:25But then we could have high pressure returning again as we go towards the end of the week.
10:29And worth also highlighting slight shifts in where the high pressure will be.
10:35Well, that's going to play a pivotal role not only in rainfall, but also with the temperatures and exactly how
10:41warm, how cool at times it could be.
10:43Because if the high pressure shifts a little bit further towards the east, we could drag in a bit more
10:48of a southerly wind, maybe a south-southeasterly.
10:53And so that could lead to our temperatures rising.
10:56But a bit of uncertainty about that.
10:58If we look at our temperatures, and here's the temperature plot from ECMWF for Lees through the next week and
11:04a bit, through this 10-day trend period, really.
11:07And you can see, yes, it's mild at the moment on Wednesday.
11:10Then temperatures dropping a little bit down, markedly so perhaps Saturday morning.
11:15So a bit of a chilly start, like I said, on Saturday morning.
11:18And then rising up a bit, milder air coming in with that weather system that arrives on Sunday into Monday.
11:24And then it drops down again.
11:26In fact, in many ways, Tuesday could be a bit of a repeat performance to Saturday.
11:31Lots of dry weather around a ridge of high pressure, keeping things quieter.
11:35But with that, something a little bit chillier, particularly through the night.
11:38And then thereafter, well, a large spread.
11:40We often see a large spread at this sort of lead time.
11:43But towards the end of next week, some models are hinting at something even milder than what we currently have.
11:50So temperatures could, again, be in the mid to high teens, perhaps.
11:55You know, well, yeah, mid to high teens, possibly warmer than that.
11:59But at this kind of lead time, it's too early to get excited too much about anything like that.
12:03There is a large spread.
12:04So all to play for as to exactly where any high pressure is going to be sitting.
12:08But there are relatively strong signs that we're going to see high pressure around through much of next week.
12:14And so many of us will have some relatively decent dry weather, which a lot of us are crying out
12:19for.
12:19I'll see you again soon.
12:20Bye-bye.
12:20Bye-bye.
12:21Bye-bye.
12:21Bye-bye.
12:22Bye-bye.
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