00:00Less than two weeks to go until the start of meteorological spring, but are there any signs of this rain
00:06clearing?
00:07Well, the short answer is no. It does look relatively unsettled over the next 10 days or so.
00:13That's because we've got quite a mobile setup. The jet stream driving series of troughs and ridges bringing some wetter
00:20days, but also some drier days.
00:22Actually, we have had some dry days this week and we will see more of those before the weekend arrives.
00:28A ridge of high pressure actually moves in for Thursday before the next spell of wet weather returns for Friday
00:34as low pressure drives in from the Atlantic.
00:38There's also something else going on ahead of the weekend.
00:40This amplifying jet stream will also allow Atlantic milder air to move in for the weekend.
00:47So after a pretty chilly week, it will turn much milder, at least for a time over this weekend, particularly
00:53across southern areas and particularly on Saturday.
00:56On Sunday, there's another change where we see the return of some slightly colder air, not quite as cold as
01:02it has been, but colder compared to Saturday, particularly across northern areas.
01:06Across the south, there's a chance that we could see this weather front become a bit of a wavy feature.
01:12That means we could see the return of the rain into the south by Sunday afternoon.
01:16But there's some uncertainty on that.
01:18There is a chance that actually the weather front just clears away, bringing many of us a drier day across
01:23southern areas on Sunday.
01:25But for the end of this week, we've got further wet weather to come.
01:28Thursday, though, does it like a somewhat drier day.
01:31Still some rain, sleet and hill snow across eastern areas of the UK, but actually across the west, particularly compared
01:37to Wednesday, it's going to be a much drier day.
01:40Still a pretty chilly one with some quite brisk winds as well for some areas on Thursday.
01:46So a disappointing day for some of us, particularly across the far north and the northeast, where the rain will
01:51linger through much of the day.
01:53But it does turn drier into the evening, a relatively dry but cloudy evening to come on Thursday.
01:59And then Friday, this next weather front pushes in from the west, bringing with it milder air, but also a
02:04spell of quite wet, heavy rain, particularly across western areas.
02:09Some strong southwesterly winds as well.
02:12Temperatures, though, on the rise, 10 or 11 degrees, 12 degrees, in fact, across parts of the southwest.
02:17Much closer to average for the time of year, but with the strength of the wind and actually into the
02:22afternoon, there's some quite blustery showers moving in on Friday.
02:25So you're not going to really feel the benefit of the milder air, but at least it will be a
02:30slightly warmer start to the day on Friday.
02:33Then the milder theme continues into Saturday.
02:36We get even milder air moving up from the south and west for Saturday, but it does come with some
02:42weather fronts, of course.
02:43So further wet weather, I think a lot of cloud around on Saturday, drizzly outbreaks of rain, especially across western
02:50areas.
02:50The south and east getting away with the best of any drier weather, but not to say you won't see
02:55any rain at all.
02:57And quite widely, temperatures above average, 12 to 13 degrees.
03:01Some areas could see 15 degrees to the east of high ground.
03:06Also to the east of high ground, there will be some quite gusty winds as well.
03:09So although it is turning milder, it's not going to be a huge amount of sunshine and it is going
03:14to be quite breezy on Saturday.
03:16But it could be some good weather to get out and about and any breaks, it won't feel too bad
03:20at all.
03:21Somewhat spring, like you may say.
03:23Then into Sunday, this cool air spreads in from the north and west, so more unsettled and cooler day for
03:30northern areas.
03:31In the south, that's where we've got a bit more uncertainty with this waving weather front as to quite how
03:36far north this comes.
03:37And if it does develop at all, it decides whether it will be a wet day across southern areas on
03:44Sunday.
03:44But I think there will be some dry weather at some point, particularly in the morning on Sunday across the
03:49south.
03:50Into Monday then, this front should clear a way to the south.
03:54You can see there's still some wavy features, the potential for it to clip southern areas through Monday morning.
04:00But there's quite good consensus between models that we will see a ridge of higher pressure just for a time,
04:07a short-lived ridge of high pressure on Monday.
04:09So the bulk of Monday does look like a drier and brighter day, but potentially a bit of a chilly
04:15one with cooler air still remaining across northern areas.
04:18You can see that mild air still across the south.
04:21So I think holding on to the slightly milder weather at least until Monday across southern areas.
04:27And then there's a bit of a change that comes in.
04:30And it remains quite unsettled through the first part of next week.
04:33We've got the next weather front pushing in from the south and west.
04:37And this one, there's less of a consensus on between model runs.
04:41You can see this is around 6pm on Monday.
04:44That weather front just out to the west of the Republic of Ireland.
04:50And here, this is the ECMWF ensemble output for that same weather front.
04:55So here's the UK here in that blue outline.
04:59And this series of red lines, that indicates that very same warm front.
05:04So we've got all the different ensemble runs individually marked with a red line.
05:09And the control run here in the slightly yellow line.
05:13And there's quite a big spread actually between the ensemble runs.
05:16And the control run actually is quite far behind.
05:19Now, I should say this is lunchtime on Monday.
05:23So earlier on in the day as well.
05:25And all of these weather fronts actually have it further or closer to the UK by that time.
05:31So we're expecting this weather front to move in a little earlier than our other, the global model, the UK
05:37Met Office model is suggesting.
05:40So that means it will likely turn a bit cloudier and a bit wetter from the south and west towards
05:45the afternoon on Monday.
05:48Like to move in a bit earlier than Tuesday itself.
05:51So it does remain unsettled into Tuesday.
05:53We've got Atlantic weather systems continuing to bring southwesterly winds.
05:59So fairly mild weather, wet weather, most prevalent across western areas, the south and east, seeing the best of any
06:05drier weather.
06:06But then there are a few changes throughout next week, which will bring a change to our weather pattern by
06:12the end of next week.
06:13Now, we've got high pressure, the Azores High starting to build to the south of the UK.
06:19We've also got high pressure building over the North Atlantic as well.
06:23Closer to the USA.
06:25Now, this view, we're looking down from the North Pole.
06:28And this is the pressure, the average pressure anomaly through the whole of next week.
06:33Now, we've got the UK here.
06:36And we've got blues or greeny colour over the UK.
06:39That shows low pressure dominating across the UK.
06:42But what I want to show you here is actually the pinks.
06:45And this is that Azores High out to the south and west of the UK.
06:50Very typical for this time of year, starting to build.
06:53But it's starting to extend actually over to the eastern seaboard.
06:57So we've got higher pressure extending all across this area and extending up the eastern coast of the USA, up
07:04to Canada all through next week.
07:06Also, the high pressure out towards parts of eastern Europe, Scandinavia, starting to build as well.
07:12So high pressure building from both sides of the UK.
07:16Low pressure dominating across the UK.
07:19So a bit more of a blocked pattern.
07:21And it's looking like we're going to get more of a blocked pattern setting up for the latter part of
07:26next week.
07:27And that would mean low pressure systems would come down from the north and west of the UK, tracking south
07:33eastwards.
07:33Rather than this, moving up from the southwest up to the northeast that we will see through the beginning of
07:39the week.
07:39So that subtle change from more from southwesterly to northwesterly winds is looking most likely for the second half of
07:48next week and into next weekend.
07:51And you can see that also in the probability plot of the decider output.
07:57So blue is showing that low pressure dominating through much of next week.
08:02But we get different shades of blue moving in.
08:04So through the start of next week, we've got that slightly lighter blue, those southwesterly winds moving in.
08:12Right weather most likely across western areas, the east seeing the best of any drier weather.
08:17But then as the week goes on, the darker blues start to move in as well.
08:21And that slightly brighter blue, that's the northwesterly dominated colour.
08:26So that shows that we've got more of a westerly, northwesterly wind moving in,
08:31which could mean it would be more widely wet rather than the wet weather just pushing in from the southwest,
08:37rattling through, just bringing a spell of wet weather.
08:39Actually, we could see the rain lingering around, affecting slightly unusual areas as well.
08:45So these are the most likely pressure patterns by the end of next week.
08:49So on Thursday, we've got that westerly wind most likely, westerly or southwesterly most likely.
08:55But also in the second and third most likely, we've got northwesterly winds moving in as well.
09:03So definitely a change Thursday.
09:04And then into Friday, those northwesterlies become even more likely.
09:09There's a greater chance of seeing that.
09:11So I think the transition to this period could be somewhere between Thursday, Friday,
09:16but definitely by the weekend, those more northwesterly winds are likely.
09:20And as you can see on the colours here, that shows colder than average temperatures across the UK.
09:27So in summary, we can see these metagrams, how the temperature will change over the next two weeks.
09:34I've got on the bottom here, this is for London.
09:37And on the top here, this is for Glasgow.
09:39We've got the same trend actually in both of these meteograms.
09:43So it has been cold this week.
09:45This weekend, it turns milder, remains relatively mild across the start of next week.
09:53But then there's a clear trend for those temperatures to fall back down below average
09:58for the final few days of February and into the very start of meteorological spring,
10:04into the start of March.
10:06Very similar trend for Glasgow across more northern areas.
10:10And it's worth noting as well, those minimum temperatures, the blue boxes here also come down.
10:16So although it will turn milder this weekend, we're not out of the woods yet with any risk of frost.
10:22I think most likely across northern areas, but even into the south, we could see some frostier nights as well.
10:28This is the zero degree line.
10:30You can see into the early part of March, some of those minimum temperatures still coming down close to zero.
10:35So not quite out of the woods for frost yet.
10:38It does look like it will turn a bit more colder into next week, the end of next week and
10:42next weekend
10:43with further wet weather on the way.
10:46But some dry weather to come on Thursday.
10:49So do make the most of that.
10:50And make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel to make sure you're up to date with all the latest.
10:55Thanks for joining me.
10:56Bye-bye.
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