Pattern change to usher in winterlike weather in the central and eastern US

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at a major pattern change coming next week.

Transcript

00:00Winter is coming. I'm a big Game of Thrones fans, have to say that here, but winter is coming.

00:07And by early next week, the weather pattern is going to be fundamentally different than what

00:11we've seen in the last couple of weeks here. I mean, this is where we're going as we head into

00:17next week. Now, is this going to be an Arctic air mass that's going to be breaking records? I don't

00:22think we're going to see a lot of that. But when you look at what will happen, I mean, you're

00:26talking about temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below historical average. When the normal high

00:32temperatures, the historical highs are really starting to come down quickly as you move

00:37through November and December. So this will be a taste of winter, no doubt about it, especially in

00:43here, especially across the Southeast and South Central, where you're going to get high temperatures

00:48and low temperatures, well, especially high temperatures below what you would normally see

00:52in December and January. So it is cold. And you contrast that to what we're looking at right now,

00:58it's going to be a big change. Also, there will be accompanied by wind and snow will be falling

01:03in many areas near the lakes and into the mountains Sunday into Monday as well. So again, it's a

01:11fundamental change coming here. And I mean, the pattern is going to be shifting pretty significantly

01:17here. Let me show you this. This is what the pattern looks like last night. And what we've seen

01:24this week, despite storms coming into the West, we've seen what I've what I call a zonal weather

01:30pattern. And the crystal ball meteorologist, Joe Lumber, talked about this last week, that in a

01:35zonal pattern, what happens? The cold air gets locked up in here. All right, you're looking at the

01:40500 millibar, what I call the jet stream, all the cold is up in here. And what you end up getting is,

01:46is a mild flow. So for much of the country, it's been mild this week. In fact, you know,

01:51take a look at the temperatures last night across just the eastern part of the United States. You

01:56know, your 40s, your 50 degree line last evening was here. And a lot of areas last evening was above

02:0560 degrees. I mean, that is pretty mild for this time of year. But look at where the pattern is this

02:12evening. And look where we're going by Monday morning. Watch this. Boom. Look at that difference.

02:18You go from here to here. And now all the cold air that was locked up in here, just follow the lines.

02:27That's where it's coming from. It's coming all the way down here. And boy, you have this upper,

02:31low over eastern Kentucky. I mean, that's your puddle of cold air. That's where the weather's

02:36going to. It's a big change. Again, I mean, take a look at again from here to here. And look how the

02:43temperatures change. Let me go. Let me go in here. I'll tomorrow. Let's go to high temperatures on

02:49Thursday. So you're already starting to get a little cold. This is the 50 degree line here,

02:54right? Here's your 60 degree line is back in here. And then the 70 degree line is in here.

03:02So 50s, 60s, and 70s for highs. That's by Thursday. Take a look by Monday. Look at the

03:09change here. From here, boom. Look at that. So from there to there. Now, these are the high

03:19temperatures on Monday, right there. Your 50 degree line is all the way down toward New Orleans,

03:27up toward Dallas. Your 30 degree line, let's say the 40 degree line here, which separates the 40s from

03:34the 30s, is way down, way, I mean, way down here. These are all 30s for high temperatures here on

03:44Monday. That's cold. Now, how do we get there? Well, you have two storms that we're tracking for

03:50you here today. I've been talking about this pretty much all week here. So these are the two storms that

03:56we're tracking for you in the Pacific. There they go. This is the first storm. This starts the process

04:03Thursday night into Friday. And then this is the storm that brings down the colder air. Now,

04:08a lot of people asking me on X, are we going to get any snow with this? If we do get snow with the

04:15injection of cold air, it's with this storm in the Aleutians. I think it's a very low probability

04:21at this point, but I do want to show you how this can happen. It all depends on the strength of that

04:27second system coming into the Northwest as we head toward tomorrow. Let me take you to the upper air

04:35pattern as we get in the Friday, and then I'll explain how it could happen here. So this is our first

04:41system. This is Saturday. This is Friday morning. This is your first storm in the Northwest today.

04:48That comes eastward. That brings some colder air. All right. But it's that second storm in the

04:53Aleutians that then comes east. This is the storm that may have the ability. Watch. See, it's right in

04:58here. We talked about this yesterday on the feed. This determines how much snow we're going to get,

05:03because it is going to be cold enough for snow behind that first system from Minnesota toward

05:08Wisconsin. And this is the European model. To me, it's weakening the system in here. You see that as

05:16we get towards Saturday, Sunday? Right in here. The American model shows the same thing, a weakening

05:22system. How can you tell it's weakening? Less reds, yellows, and oranges. See how it goes across

05:26Indiana and Ohio. If you're going to get snow, it's going to be north of the system. So if I look at the

05:32surface map, and you can see it a little better here with this storm. Here it is. This is the European

05:36model. Look at the pressure. About 1,005 millibars, 1,004 in here. Not much snow. There's just,

05:43there will be some flakes, but I'm not looking for a whole lot. But watch as I play it out on

05:48the European. Watch this. It goes down to about 998. Tells me if the Europeans right, your snow area

05:54a little bit in here. But if you want a few inches of snow, it's going to be in here. North of Detroit,

05:59Saginaw towards southwest Ontario. However, I will say the other modeling, and I'm showing you

06:04modeling, because that's the idea of the feed, is I want you to see what I look at. The other

06:09modeling, it's a lot weaker with the storm. 1,006, 1,002, maybe 998. There's another model shows the

06:16same. So it tells me if we're going to get snow with this system over the weekend, it's going to

06:22be in here. Where you can get, you might get a coating to an inch in these areas in here, right?

06:29Maybe south of Minneapolis. But the area where you can get one to three will be like north of Detroit

06:33towards Saginaw, southwest Ontario. That's an area to watch. But the important thing is look at this

06:39by Monday. A lot of areas will have some snow. This is showing you the blue, showing you where

06:44the snow is going to be. Not a lot, but some, and certainly for many, a taste of winter. And that's

06:51the feed.

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