00:00And we are booked and busy on the feed this morning. It was last week that I talked about
00:06a wave that would be coming off Africa this week, and that was the one to watch. Why? Because this
00:12wave would be far enough south that I was not convinced that it wouldn't get to the United
00:17States. Not saying it would, but I said this was the one to watch. And my opinion on this wave
00:22has changed not one iota in the last week. Here it is. Let me put it into motion. And I'll tell
00:28you what, this wave still is pretty robust. What do I mean by that? You see some red, yellows,
00:33and oranges, and it's been a consistent area of rain and thunderstorms here. Sometimes in the
00:38tropical Atlantic, these scale up and down, this has not. However, the one thing to look at here,
00:43look how far south it is. I mean, this is, oops, didn't want to do that. This is 10 degrees north,
00:50right? Most waves are up in here between 15 and 20. I'm not saying you can't develop waves this
00:58far south, but there's a few more challenges in its wake. And that basically the challenge down
01:03the road is going to be its interaction with South America. Now, heard a lot of stuff about
01:10some people saying, why are we even talking about this? Because there is a possibility that this
01:16has an impact as a hurricane. It could be the first, maybe the only hurricane to impact the United
01:24States, as far as a direct impact to landfall. It's a possibility. Is it going to happen? I'm not
01:30sure. But I want to show you, this is my favorite, and we're breaking all kinds of rules and standards
01:36here. But this is the hurdles for a tropical wave. And there's a lot of information here. But this is
01:42the start line right here, right? This is the end line right here. Okay. So for no impact in the
01:51United States, you're down here. Look at this. Look how simple this is. There's an easy way that
01:57this system never impacts the United States because it dissipates as it gets into the middle part of
02:04next week as it approaches South America. And if that's the case, no impact. However, look at all
02:11the hurdles that this wave has to get to get from start, and I'll say number two, finish. All of these
02:18hurdles. One, two, three, four. That's a lot of hurdles. And this is what it has to do to get to
02:26the United States. This is what it has to do to miss the United States. A lot easier, isn't it?
02:31And even toward the end here, even if it gets this, this, and this, the end game to get to the United
02:37States, it could still miss because the dip in the jet stream right here could steer it away from the
02:44United States. And it misses the connection. So you kind of see where I'm going with this.
02:48There's a lot of challenges. And that's why even at this point right now, you'll notice while we've
02:55been talking about this for quite some time, we only have a low risk for development. All right.
03:00It could develop, but we only have a low chance because we just don't know if it's going to survive.
03:06But if it survives and gets into the Caribbean, we've been talking about this,
03:11water temperatures are super duper warm. These are the anomalies. This is above historical
03:17averages here. So you're talking about water temperatures here, well above the historical
03:22average. That's going to put things in the middle to upper eighties for water temperatures. Okay.
03:28That's the potential. Now I want to show you the modeling. I want to show you the tools that I look
03:35at to make a forecast. That's what the forecast feed is all about. So let me take you into a two
03:41shot here. I want to go to Sunday. Here's the tropical wave right here. This is it. This is
03:47the European look off our South. That is look off our side. You mean you're going to have an interaction
03:51with this tropical wave across South America. Let's go to Monday evening. Look off our South.
03:56These are the ABC islands, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Again, interacting with South America.
04:04So the question is, is this even going to be able to survive that? It may not, but let's say it does.
04:10And the modeling says it does. This is it on Thursday. Look at this. All of a sudden it's
04:14pulled it North. You have a dip in the jet stream. That's going to pull this North. And all of a sudden
04:18here it is South of Hispaniola. I showed you the water temperatures. They're warm. What about
04:25wind shear? Okay. So there's where it is. What does the wind shear look like? There is none. All the
04:30wind shear is up in here. These are the winds at 40,000 feet. It's up here. And what do you see?
04:34You see an outline of what? An upper high pressure system. And guess what? That's where this is
04:41located. Over very warm water. And this can go from nothing and weak to a hurricane. Rapidly
04:48intensifying. It is a possibility. The question is, does it survive South America? And if it does,
04:57that's a problem. Now, if it does, where would it go? Well, let's take a look at some of the modeling
05:03here. And listen, there are an infinite amount of possibilities on this. Let's go to Wednesday.
05:08Let's go to Thursday here. All right. I'm going to show you the American model. Here's the American
05:12model right here. Watch what it does. And you can see the red. So let's go to Thursday.
05:17Here is the developing system right here. Watch what the American model does. What it says is,
05:23there's this dip in the jet stream right here that picks it up and moves it away from the United
05:29States. You see that? There it goes. See you later. That's the American model. European model,
05:35a little different. It says, nope, that trough's not deep enough to pick it. So we're going to push it
05:42westward and westward. Here it is. You see all the red. There we are Saturday. There we are Saturday.
05:47It does a little loop to loop. And then all of a sudden, watch what it does. This is Tuesday,
05:51October 28th, up in the year and then close to the United States and perhaps out. I can also see a
05:58scenario where this system takes a track like this toward the Yucatan Peninsula and comes toward
06:04Florida. I could see a track where this system goes right into Central America and diminishes. And of
06:10course, we talked about that it may not survive. So an infinite amount of possibilities here. I want to end
06:20with this. I haven't changed this graphic at all. And there's a reason for that. Well, besides, I made
06:26it. I like it. This is the fork in the road right here. Does it weaken right in here? And then this dip
06:37in the jet stream either takes it out to sea, up the coast, or in the Central America. And all of that
06:45is possible on the forecast feed.
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