00:00All right. We're going to have two storms as we head toward this weekend. One storm stays east of the United States. We'll have to keep an eye on it, though. It could have an impact on our system that I think will be a tropical storm off the Florida coast this weekend.
00:15And by the way, remember, this is the system that we've been tracking for you here for over a week. We said it would go incognito last week and over the weekend, but only to come back. When? As it approached the islands. Let me show you where it is.
00:27There it is. I have it highlighted for you. Let me put it in the motion. So there it is. Now, very unorganized right now. What do I mean by that? You don't have any concentrated areas of thunderstorms. Here's one. Here's one. Here's one. Here's one.
00:41So it's very disorganized now, and there's a reason for that. Plenty of wind shear and dry air. Here's our water vapor loop map, and you can kind of see it. You've got an upper low here producing wind shear, and that is coming right at the front of the tropical wave.
00:57So think about it this way. Let me come back to me for a second. That's why I like the feet. I control everything. All right. If I'm taking a walk, right, and the wind's coming at my front, it's hard to take a walk.
01:08If it's at my back, I'm going with it. So that's why when you have a wind shear, if it's going with the tropical system, you can still organize, but if it's coming at your front, you can't. That's what's going on right now.
01:19Now, I do believe, though, things are going to be getting better organized, and I just want to show you this. Look at the water temperatures in the Atlantic right now. They are super-duper warm. I mean, they're in the middle 80s, so we have very warm water where this is going to track.
01:36All right. Let's talk about what the models are projecting here. I'm going to show you another model today. I've been showing the American and the European. How about the Canadian model?
01:47So we have three models to look at. What we're going to look at here, we're looking at the upper air map here, and we're going to begin here on Friday.
01:54All right. This is the European model. I want you to concentrate in these areas. There's two of our systems. You can see the red showing you the energy, right?
02:03So right now, the European model has two systems. Oh, let me go. And then the American model. Oh, let me go back. Wrong area here. This is where we want to go.
02:13All right. Let's go back here. So this is what we're looking at. Three models here, Friday evening. Let's continue to look in this area.
02:19Here are both of the waves. Here's the lead one near the islands. You'll notice the red. That's showing you that you have some energy there.
02:28That's the European. Here's the Canadian. They look similar. What does the American model show? Not much.
02:34Saturday. European. You see the two storms? Canadians see the two storms? The American model? No.
02:43Right now, two out of three ain't bad, as my favorite song Meatloaf recorded years ago, back in the 70s.
02:49I believe the Canadian and the European model are right. We're going to have two storms.
02:53Now, I'm going to focus more on the front one. Why? Because I think that can bring impacts into the United States.
02:58Let me show you why I think this is going to develop. So we're going to take a look at the wind shear.
03:04There's wind shear right now, but I believe it's going to be weakening.
03:07Let's go into Friday here. So here's where the system is right now. I'll mark it with an X.
03:12What does the wind shear look like in that area? Very light. These are the winds at around 40,000 feet.
03:19Look what's going on. It's right in this area. You can see an outline of an upper high.
03:23So the wind shear is lessening. Let's go to Saturday. Where's the system? In the middle Bahamas.
03:30There's the X. What does the wind shear look like? Light winds aloft, right? What does it look like?
03:34It's right in here in this lower wind shear. I have no doubt that this is going to develop.
03:41The question is, where does it go as it go forward here? Not sure yet.
03:47But I do believe this will be a tropical storm. At least a tropical storm. Can't rule out hurricane.
03:54It'll be off the Florida coast as we head into the weekend.
03:58I think it could be drawn up into the Carolinas, but that second storm off to the east could change the direction, the steering flow.
04:07So we're very unsure right now, but I believe we're looking at a tropical storm off the Florida coast this weekend and anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas.
04:17Pay attention. You could get impacts. And that's today's feed.
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