10-day window opens for cold and snow

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the cold and snow threat.

Transcript

00:00The window is now open for snow and cold the next 10 days from the Midwest to the Northeast.

00:09We're, of course, tracking the lake effect snow beginning Tuesday night, last thing into Thursday

00:14in the Northeast. And then we have two more storms coming. I really believe we have a storm a week

00:20from now that could bring the snow to the Northeast. I'll show you why you're coming up.

00:26But I want to review something. This is something I've learned over my years here at Accur. I've been

00:30here 35 years. And this is what I've learned. When you get an injection of cold air, you always

00:37have two opportunities. Now, it doesn't mean you're going to get them, but there's always two

00:41opportunities for snow on the front end and the back end of the snow. Our first opportunity is the

00:48back end of the storm, the back end of the cold. As it gets established, a storm is going to attack

00:53this cold air. And that's where you're going to get the snow. Let me show you where that storm is

00:58right now. It is in the Pacific here, south of the Aleutian Islands. I should have had this map a

01:04little. So the Aleutian, here's the Aleutian Islands right there. Let me try that. Here's the Aleutian

01:09Islands. This is the piece of energy that we're tracking. Now, this is going to come to the North

01:13Northeast, coming to the Northwest. And remember yesterday, we talked about how the American model

01:19seemed to be out on its own. Well, welcome aboard, American model. It is now showing what the

01:26Europeans showed two days ago. That's why the European model, we have many models. I think the

01:32European model and the UK Met, which is the UK model, are the best. I think the American,

01:39unfortunately, I have to say, you got to be honest, I think the American model is the worst.

01:43Um, but here, here's what's going on. There's that piece of energy right in here. So here it is. Now,

01:50no, yesterday, the GFS was digging this thing toward the Southwest. It's not doing any more.

01:56In fact, let me show you. It looks very similar to European. Look at that. European American,

02:00European American, European American. Welcome aboard, GFS. It took you 48 hours, but I think we have it

02:05right now. So what's going to happen is this energy comes around and then what do you have in its place?

02:11In, ahead of you have all this cold air. Now, let me show you the surface map really quickly so you

02:17get a sense. I mean, here's the cold air Thursday morning. Here comes the storm into the Northwest and

02:23what's going on? Now you have the injection of cold air and this storm comes along and attacks the

02:30cold air. Now, I want to go back to the 500 millibar, what we talk about the, uh, the jet stream here so

02:36you get a sense. So here's the piece of energy. I'm just going to get rid of the GFS because it

02:44finally came aboard. But anyway, here it comes. Here's the energy digging South. Here we go Saturday

02:48morning. So this is the storm. And then there's another injection of cold air coming in. Now for

02:53this to be a storm, you need this energy in here, right here. Let me turn on my pen right here

03:02to run out ahead of this little dip. You need it to run ahead. All right. If you don't have it run

03:08ahead, what you then just get is a cold front coming South and you get another shot of cold air,

03:13but you're likely not to get a lot of snow with this. But watch how this energy gets out ahead of

03:18it right here. You see right there, this is Saturday evening. Here's your lead drop. And then you've got

03:25this running out ahead of it right in here. So your snow area, given if this is right,

03:32just looking at this tells me it's right in here. This is your snow area. Now that means it's going

03:37to be Des Moines, Omaha, Chicago. You're going to get into this Peoria up in the Michigan. Let me show

03:44you the surface map with this. All right. This is the system that we talked about last week that the

03:49models wasn't really shown. It was on and off again, but watch the, here's the cold air. Here it is

03:54right in here. And then watch this storm come along with it. Let me get rid of this. We don't need

03:59this anymore. Watch that in there. You see, there's the snow right in Des Moines. Here's the snow,

04:06all the blue, watch the snow. Here comes the storm. It's going to track like this northeastward. This is

04:14Friday night, Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, Saturday evening, Saturday night in here. So your snow

04:22with this storm, Denver, you're going to get a little snow. It's going to come along the front

04:25range. And here's your snow area with this storm. I think it's going to be North of Indianapolis

04:31should go to ice North of I-70 in Illinois. That's your snow area with this. Now I'm not sure

04:38how much, but I do believe someone in that area is going to get a solid 48 inches of snow and someone

04:44can get 10. Is that Chicago? Is it Peoria? Is it Madison? Is it Green Bay in Des Moines? I'm not

04:49sure yet. I'm starting to think the heaviest is North of Chicago, but I'm just not sure yet,

04:56but get ready. This is common as we get in the Friday night in here where it's probably one to

05:03three inches. And then here from Des Moines, or let's say Omaha, North of Kansas city on Northeast,

05:09this is where it could be a general area of four to eight locally town. I'm not sure if that's in

05:15Chicago, North of Chicago, South of Chicago, but you're in the threat area for now, but this is

05:21going to be a disruptive snow Saturday afternoon, Saturday night for anybody coming home. Now we're

05:26not done. Talked about this. Boy, I smelled this one. I smell another storm coming. Let me go ahead

05:32to Monday and Tuesday. So here's what happens Monday evening. Look what's going on. You have a similar

05:38pattern in it. You've got this big dip in the jet stream. This is going to give you an another

05:43injection of cold air, but guess what? Now it's the cold air coming in. Let's go back to the Rayna rule.

05:50You always get with injections of cold air. You have to worry about snow. The one over the weekend is

05:56here. This is Tuesday and Wednesday next week on the front side. And here's the key again. You've got

06:03the cold air coming year, right? And then you have this piece of energy across Texas. This has to run

06:09out ahead of it. It's got to run out ahead of it to get the snow. Right now, it's not quite getting it.

06:16You see, this energy is going with the northern piece. So it ends up being a front. Let me show you

06:21what it looks like on the surface map. You can see it next week. See, watch. Here comes the front

06:27Tuesday and Wednesday. It's trying to form a storm along that boundary. It's just not quite out ahead.

06:32But here's the area to watch for. Tuesday, Wednesday of next week. Boston will keep it

06:38north of the 95. I-81. This is the area to watch for next week. Tuesday into Wednesday for more

06:47accumulating snow. We're locked and loaded with cold and snow from the Midwest to Northeast for

06:52the next 10 days. And that's the feed.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended