Holiday travel to be impacted by multiple storm systems Thanksgiving week

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at multiple storm systems that could impact the United States during the week of Thanksgiving.

Transcript

00:00Well, we are less than two weeks away from Thanksgiving Day, and of course, Thanksgiving

00:06Week is the busiest travel time of the entire year, and we're going to keep an eye on it

00:12here for you here on the AccuWeather Network, and that is the focus of the feed today.

00:19Let me give you some highlights of what we're looking at here.

00:21First of all, for Thanksgiving Week, it's going to be somewhat of a stormier weather

00:25pattern here.

00:25We'll show you that.

00:26Watch out snow.

00:28I don't think it's widespread, but across the upper Midwest and perhaps into the Dakotas,

00:32I think there's a chance that we're going to get at least some snow.

00:35Meanwhile, in the east, boy, it's going to be a milder weather pattern, and we may have

00:40to deal with some precipitation once we get across New England here.

00:44But certainly, it's been an interesting pattern across the country.

00:47I want to show you one of the things that we look at when we're looking at the pattern in

00:52North America and trying to project of what's going to happen as we move forward here.

00:57I want to take you out into the Pacific, and this is something that is stressed to us by

01:02our long-range team, meteorologist Paul Pasteluk, and also the crystal ball, Joe Lumberg here.

01:08So these are the water temperature anomalies in the Pacific, and you can see what's very,

01:14very easy to see is look at the colder water here.

01:18The temperature anomalies colder than normal here off the west coast of Canada.

01:23Meanwhile, in the Central Pacific, a lot of warm water here.

01:27And what happens is there's an interaction between the waters and the jet stream.

01:32And in this case, what we've seen is this buckling or pushing of the jet stream northward

01:37off the Aleutians.

01:38And then you get these dips in the jet stream that have been coming across the west coast of

01:44the United States.

01:45Sound familiar?

01:47That's the pattern that we're in, and that's why we're getting the rainfall here in California.

01:52In fact, take a look at the weather pattern.

01:53This is what I mean when we look at the weather pattern across North America.

01:57Take a look at this.

01:58This is this evening.

01:59You see?

02:00Big dip in the jet stream coming into California.

02:03And then you get the ridging and warmer weather across the Central U.S.

02:07So that's where we are right now.

02:09And I think overall, that same pattern will hold as we get into Thanksgiving week.

02:16Let's take you to Monday, November 24th here.

02:20This is what we're looking at.

02:22Again, once again, you have this dip in energy off the west coast.

02:26You have something ejecting out into the Central U.S.

02:28And this is the storm we're going to keep an eye on for the Central U.S.

02:32because there's going to be enough cold air bleeding southward that this can produce some snow.

02:37But watch what happens moving forward here.

02:40This is the European model.

02:42This is the American model.

02:43Pretty similar.

02:45You know, we saw this a couple of weeks ago that we thought there'd be these dips in a jet stream

02:49coming along the west coast.

02:50They're pretty similar for this far out.

02:53Let's go to Wednesday, the biggest travel day of the year.

02:56Now, here's where the differences start.

02:58This is the European.

03:00This is the American model.

03:01Now, somewhat different, but the overall thought is you're going to get a dip in the jet stream

03:07in the west, storminess in the north central United States, and an area of high pressure

03:12that will protect Florida and the southeast, we think, from rainfall much of the week.

03:18There's the European model.

03:20Here's the American model.

03:22Very similar.

03:23Now, watch as we go to Thanksgiving Day.

03:25This is where it gets a little interesting.

03:26Now, the European model keeps that dip in the jet stream off the west coast.

03:31The American model has it, but it's farther inland.

03:35So, it certainly looks as though we're going to have a storm along the west coast as we get

03:39toward Thanksgiving Day.

03:40The question is, is it across the Intermountain West, in which case you'd be looking at a lot

03:45of snow in the mountains and some gusty winds in California, or is it offshore like the European

03:52has, and in which case, if it's offshore and it comes in, watch what this does, in the southern,

03:59look at that, Thursday into Friday.

04:02That's the European model.

04:03Look at the American model.

04:04Everything's farther east with a snowstorm across the northern plains.

04:07So, that's the difference.

04:10You're looking at the models, the same tools that I use on the AccuWeather Pro site every

04:15day to make a forecast.

04:17So, based on these tools, again, the models that make the forecast, they're the tools

04:21to make a forecast, what's the AccuWeather forecast for Thanksgiving week?

04:26I think we're going to go with a little bit of blend of both those solutions.

04:30That is, you're going to see a storm that's going to be coming out of the western United

04:34States at some point on Thanksgiving Day.

04:36It looks like it could be stormy.

04:39There could even just be winds in southern California, but we think we're looking at

04:42a storm track Thanksgiving week like this.

04:45There will likely be an early to midweek storm coming across the Midwest, and then a second

04:51storm that comes across the Intermountain West or California as we get into Thursday and

04:57Friday.

04:58As far as snow is concerned outside of the mountains, I think we have to worry about this

05:05area, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, you know, Fargo, Duluth, Minneapolis, down toward

05:11Denver, that we could be looking at accumulating snow here, and then we get that second storm

05:17late in the week along the West Coast.

05:19And oh, by the way, one thing I do want to end with here is that we're getting the heavy

05:25rain in southern California as we move into today, and then even next week, we're looking

05:33for some rain.

05:34But if the European model were to be correct, and this happens on Thanksgiving Day, in addition,

05:45look at this right there, look at that coming into southern California if that's right.

05:49Now, the American model says no, everything's inland, and it's just windy and dry.

05:53But if that would happen, that you would get this storm coming in mid to late next week

05:59on top of the rain that we're getting tonight, the rain, I think two storms coming in to

06:07California next week.

06:09If you get this storm, we have a chance, unfortunately, of breaking a record for the wettest November

06:16of all time in southern California.

06:19Now, as it is, with the rain that we're going to get tonight and then next week, I suspect

06:23we'll be somewhere in here, somewhere between, you know, six and a half and eight inches rain,

06:28so it will be a top three November rainfall for downtown Los Angeles.

06:32But if we get that storm on Thanksgiving week, I think this number is in play, and that would

06:39make November of 2025 the wettest November on record.

06:44Something to keep an eye on here on the feed.

06:47Stay with us.

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