00:00all right winter is alive and well from the lakes midwest and into the northeast
00:10where we have plenty of cold and at least for the mid-atlantic and northeast two opportunities
00:17for snow now it doesn't mean they're going to happen but it's it's a similar pattern
00:23to what we're just experiencing now we've got to split the jet stream you get a storm in the
00:30southern branch that's a storm go out the sea or go up the coast that's what we're trying to answer
00:35for you here i want to show you this this is kind of what we're looking at here friday into saturday
00:40there's going to be two opportunities one storm on friday and then saturday into sunday and it's a
00:45similar setup you get a storm the forms now does this dip in the jet stream drive it out the sea
00:51or up the coast right now the preponderance of evidence suggests that both of these systems
00:59go far enough out to sea that you don't get a lot of snow and ice i'm a little skeptical of that
01:05especially friday friday night but right now the evidence suggests that the storms go out to sea
01:13and there's not a lot of snow but i'll show you why i'm a little more worried about friday
01:17friday than saturday into sunday now just want to let you know we're really starting to build the
01:22snow cover now across the uh across the midwest here take a look this is the latest snow cover and
01:28remember we're getting snow here today you're going to start putting more and more snow here across
01:32ohio pennsylvania and new england but a pretty deep snowpack already across midwest because of twin
01:38storms now here's the weather pattern that we've seen i want to show you the satellite picture
01:43this is what's going on let me let me show you this first of all you've got a cold front or
01:48boundary that's stuck in here and this is where it is it's in here you can see all of the clouds now
01:55what happens is is this front's not going anywhere and what you're seeing is is that you've got these
02:01little pieces of energy that come in across the southern tier of the united states and then what
02:07happens is you've got cold shots coming on in now these this energy in the southern branch forms the
02:14storm along the front it's the northern branch energy that determines whether this storm goes out
02:20the sea or up the coast that's what's going on right now you see a storm that formed in here but
02:26the jet stream was configured as such that the storm stayed close enough to the coast that we had a lot
02:32of snow with this from the midwest toward the northeast so that's the pattern that we're dealing
02:38with moving forward the rest of this week now plenty of cold already in place across the united states
02:47these are the high temperatures on friday this red line here is where temperatures are below 32 degrees
02:53so throughout the midwest and northeast it stays on the cold side now let me go back to this a second
03:00because there's already another little piece of energy that we're going to be tracking here
03:05it's in here this in here this is going to ground the bend and then this will form a storm along this
03:12boundary and then what we're trying to determine with is this northern piece of energy this northern
03:18trough as it comes down does it guide it out to sea or up the coast that's the first the first
03:25opportunity as uh as we move in the friday here let me show you what we're looking at here
03:31there's the temperatures for friday here's the piece of energy i'm showing you the european model
03:37and that's all the idea of the feed i want you to see the tools that i look at to help make the forecast
03:43so this is the piece of energy here in the west this is going to come south and east and you're going
03:49to see energy coming in from the north this is on wednesday let's go to friday let's go to thursday
03:57so here's that piece of energy you can follow it follow along with me as i go backwards here it is
04:03across nevada comes across arizona and then as we get into friday afternoon it comes right across the
04:11midwest here it is right near st louis here's your northern piece of energy now this is why i'm a little
04:18worried about friday because as i go to friday morning you can see what's going on here this
04:23energy comes northward here's your dip in the jet stream right in here so it's running out ahead of
04:29it so that tells me there's room room in here for snow to fall or at least precipitation to fall into
04:38cold air you see that then that goes offshore let me show you the surface panel with that here
04:44we'll show you that um right here so here it is watch the storm here it goes and you see there's
04:51a little attempt here friday afternoon friday night in this area where it's cold for a little bit of
04:57snow you see that then it goes offshore there it is right there it's subtle but you can see the
05:05possibility of it now right now the modeling says well the storm is so far south and east there's so much
05:11dry cold air that nothing falls on the back side but i'm a little worried about that i would watch
05:16this friday friday night now once this storm goes offshore you see it going by the cold front which is
05:26initially in here gets driven a little farther south than east so by the time we get into saturday
05:33morning where's that cold from pretty far offshore right in here now what do we have coming
05:39another piece of energy in that northwest flow so that but the frontal boundary remember where the
05:45storm would form is a little farther south than east so as i go back to that so here's we go to
05:50saturday here you go again here's another piece of energy see saturday here it is it's back in here
05:55but you'll notice the northern piece of energy is already farther east you see that and if that's the
06:05case this energy would be then driven out to sea it has has to get out ahead of this has to get out
06:14ahead of it to form the storm if it stays with it or behind it or to the west then everything's driven
06:21off sea and that's what the evidence shows with this that it's driven these there it is across
06:26arkansas see how it's kind of driven out to sea a little bit here so i'm not sure if if this one
06:32is a bona fide possibility and when you look at the surface map you'll notice see everything is
06:38offshore with this on saturday and the sunday nonetheless i think we're going to have to keep
06:43an eye on it so again i want to show you this is the pattern that we're looking at here moving over
06:49the next couple of days the snow and ice risk i think it's more of a risk friday and friday night
06:56than it is on the weekend and that's the feed
06:59you
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