Stormy for Thanksgiving week

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the weather around the United States for the week of Thanksgiving.

Transcript

00:00And we are one week away from the busiest travel week of the year. Of course, that is Thanksgiving

00:06week, and we're going to continue to look at it for you on the feed as we get closer and closer,

00:12and there has been some clarity. Looks like we're going to be tracking two storms, one early,

00:18one late, perhaps a third as well, but certainly there's going to be some travel delays, especially

00:24across the central part of the country as we go through Thanksgiving week here. I want to give

00:29you an idea of what's going to go on here. I want a little headlines here, and we haven't changed

00:32anything in that we think overall it's a stormier pattern, and there does appear to us to be some

00:38snow from the upper Midwest, at least into the Dakotas. Now, is it a few inches of snow, or is

00:44a big snowstorm? Not sure yet, but there is the possibility of a sizable snowstorm as we get into

00:51Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. I'll explain why. And overall, it is a chilly start in the northeast,

00:59on Thanksgiving week, then it should turn warmer as the storm track stays off to the west. All right,

01:04let me show you the two storms that we're already tracking for you here. Now, one of them we could

01:09see. The other one, not so much yet. And let me take you into the satellite. We'll put this full.

01:16And this storm, of course, we're tracking today. This will come into the Texas. It'll be gone by the

01:22time we get into the upcoming weekend. But we've got all of this energy back here south of the

01:28Aleutians. Now, this will be heading into California, and then we'll be tracking. This is the early week

01:33storm for Thanksgiving week, and then well off to the west. In fact, it's not on the map right now.

01:40I'll show you where that storm is that we're tracking for Thanksgiving Day, and that's the storm

01:46that has the possibility of causing some major problems for Thanksgiving Day here. So what I

01:53want to do is I'm going to show you the tools that I use, the modeling. And you can all get this on the

01:59pro site, the Accu with a pro site here. You can use the same tools that I look at. Now, I keep it

02:04simple. I'm an old school forecaster. I always talk about the 500 millibar or the jet stream, and that's

02:10where I want to begin right now with the jet stream here. And let me go back to this map here. And as

02:18we go forward, watch what happens here. Now, this is Sunday. This is the storm right here that is up

02:24into the Aleutian Islands right now. That's our early week storm. This is the European model. This is the

02:31American model. And you'll notice pretty similar with the location across the southwest here on Sunday

02:37morning. As we head to Monday evening, there it is right here. There's the European. Here's the

02:44American model. Now, when you look at this right now, the one thing we're not going to have to worry

02:49about with this storm is a lot of snow. And here's why. Because right now, it's what I call a split flow,

02:55a northern branch and a southern branch. The northern branch has all the cold air, and that's way up in

03:01here. That's up in here across Canada. So as this storm comes out, there is pretty good agreement on

03:06where this goes on all modeling. You can see it as we get into Tuesday evening. There it is

03:12going across Texas on the European. Same location on the American model. And then by Wednesday, it

03:18weakens as it goes across the central part of the United States. When I look at the surface map with

03:24that, here it is. You could see the greens showing you the rain, the blues where there's snow. And you

03:29can see that storm. There it is Tuesday. There it is Wednesday. And it kind of weakens. You see that

03:34across the central part of the United States. The American model is showing the same thing

03:39Tuesday into Wednesday. So early week travel, the east coast is fine, but you're going to have

03:45problems across the mid-south in Texas. Some showers, thunderstorms. I wouldn't be shocked if maybe

03:49there was some severe weather in south Texas with this storm Tuesday into Wednesday. But then it gets

03:55a little dicier as we move forward. Let's go back to this. Because when I go to Tuesday,

04:00here's what's going on. You have our first system here, but then you have our next dip in the jet

04:07stream. I'll show you where that's coming from. So there it is. That's on the American model,

04:12right? Here's on the European model Tuesday. See that? Pretty much the same. But as I go into

04:17Thursday, there's going to be a little bit of a difference here. European, American. European,

04:24American. Notice, the American model just moves it quickly across the area. There it is in the

04:32northwest Tuesday. Watch it go right across the north central United States Wednesday into Thursday.

04:37Now, you're starting to get some cold air to bleed in here. So there'd be at least some snow

04:42across the upper Midwest, the Dakotas, and near the lakes. The European's a little different though.

04:48It's a little different. You see what it does with it? It brings it along, but it has a southern

04:53piece of energy coming in this. You see that? The American model does not. The American model does

04:59not show that southern piece of energy. Let me show you. See, it just moves it along. So here's

05:05the American model right here. See, it doesn't have a southern piece of energy, so it moves it along.

05:10The European says, no, there's a southern piece of energy right here, right in here. Let me circle

05:16it to you. Coming across California. So what did that do? Is that develops a pretty, look at that,

05:23upper low here. There's Friday morning of European. There's the, the American has it up here,

05:30south of James Bay, while the European, where does it have it? Well, a big snowstorm getting going

05:37across the southern plains. So when you look at the surface model for this, look at the difference.

05:43There it is. There's the European model Friday morning. This would turn into a blizzard

05:48across the Dakotas and Minnesota, probably north and west of Minneapolis. The American model says,

05:55no, it's way up here. There's some snow Wednesday into Thursday, but the big story is the cold. So

06:02what do I believe? I'm not sure yet. Let me show you why. Because when you track where this storm is,

06:08here it is as we, uh, as we get into Thanksgiving week. Let me show it to you. So here's the storm

06:15right here coming into the West coast on Wednesday. Where is that storm now? When you go backwards,

06:22it's right here across China. We've got a long way to go. I want to leave you with this though.

06:32I want to leave you with some maps here. This is what we're looking at. We haven't changed that.

06:36Anywhere in red, I think you have to worry about some delays on Thanksgiving week from California

06:42toward the Northeast. And I'll tell you what, it looks more and more like we're going to be looking

06:48at snow in the upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. And that's the feed.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended