00:00And on the forecast feed today we're watching for Jerry and I think we have a suitor. We could be
00:06having Jerry a week from now. All right, little break in the action in the tropics here this
00:12morning. We have Imelda way up here moving away from Bermuda. Notice what's going on in the
00:18Atlantic. Not much. What's kind of stunning to me is the inactivity across the Gulf and into the
00:24Caribbean right now. And these are areas that have been untouched by any tropical system so far
00:31this year. And we've been sounding the alarm on this for weeks that the water temperatures are
00:36so warm. These are actually the anomalies. So what does that mean? It's compared to the historical
00:42averages and water temperatures in here three or four degrees above where they should be. That's
00:48upper 80s. So anything, and I mean anything, that gets into the Caribbean and the Gulf with low wind
00:55shear and sufficient moisture is going to explode. That's what we're worried about. All right, now
01:02next couple of days here's what we're looking for here as far as development is concerned. I don't
01:08think we're going to see this area of low pressure in Florida develop. There's too much wind shear
01:12here in the Gulf here. This is the area to watch. We have a moderate risk for development in the
01:20Central Atlantic as we head into next week. Let me show you why on the satellite picture here. Notice
01:25off the west coast of Africa, what's going on? You've got a lot of thunderstorms here, right? This
01:31tropical wave will come into this area as we head into, let's say, Friday and then into the upcoming
01:39weekend, all right? And then this is the area that we're going to have to keep an eye on. Now,
01:47I want to show you where this is going to go. I'm going to use the models here from the AccuWeather
01:52Pro site. You too can be a pro by using the AccuWeather Pro site. It's where I get all my
01:57information from. Let me show it to you. Now, models don't make a forecast, but they help you make the
02:02forecast. That's the way I look at this here. So let's take your full here on the modeling here.
02:08Let me go full screen. Let me put myself in the box. Okay. As we go forward here, what you're going
02:14to be looking at is how we're going to track this system moving forward. Where is it going to go?
02:19Well, let me show it to you here. Let me take you out to Sunday. I'm going to show you three models.
02:24I'm going to show you the American, the European, and the Canadian, and they're scarily consistent
02:30on where this goes. So this is Sunday evening. I want you to look for the red colors right in here.
02:36This is the tropical wave. You see that right in there, right here. Let's keep looking here.
02:41That is the American model. This is the European, not as strong, but you could see a little bit.
02:47And then there's the Canadian model again in the general same area. Let's go ahead to the middle
02:52part of the week, Wednesday. Where do the models have it? All right. Let's start with the American
02:56model right here. You can clear the seat. You see the reds? There's the tropical wave, right?
03:00There's the American model. There's the European model, almost the exact same spot,
03:06not as strong. And there's the Canadian, all in the same area. And the American model then takes
03:12this toward the islands, went around Thursday. Now the question is, is it going to develop?
03:17I want to show you the wind shear here quickly and then give you the forecast moving forward here.
03:21So the wind shear, and I've been showing you this product quite a bit. This is our wind shear product
03:27here. I'm going to show you the, I'm going to show you a different one. I'm going to show you the
03:30winds at about 40,000 feet. And this wave is forecasted to move into this area. All right.
03:37Know what you see in this area as we head toward the weekend and early next week. Let me go ahead.
03:43All right. So this is as we get into Tuesday. What are we looking at here? So this wave is going to be
03:49moving into here. You see what we have? See the outline? Clockwise flow. You have an area of high
03:56pressure aloft. Underneath high pressure, what do you get? Low wind shear, right? That's the only
04:03thing that's been stopping these systems is low wind shear. Let me go out the Thursday, Wednesday
04:08in the Thursdays that approaches the islands. So by that time it's in here, right? Right around in
04:14here. What do you see? High pressure aloft. You see the clockwise flow, right? What does that mean?
04:19Low wind shear. That tells me that this system is going to try to develop. All right. But the key
04:28is, where does it go from there? I made a graphic for this. Let me show it to you. So this is what's
04:36going to happen with this wave as we move forward here. So it's going to be very unorganized as we go
04:42into the weekend. It's not going to develop at all. Now, early next weekend here, about 45 degrees
04:48west. And again, as long as it stays south of 15 degrees north, which is in here, I think it will
04:53organize it as low wind shear. Then I think as it approaches the islands, it could be a storm. That
04:58would be Jerry. Now, the question is, where does it go from there? What I continue to see is dips in
05:02the jet stream off the east coast next week to 10 days. If this stays far enough south of this dip
05:10and gets into the Caribbean, we could be looking at a huge problem, a huge problem with the possibility
05:17of this developing into a hurricane. I think it's more likely, more likely that this dip in the jet
05:23stream pulls it north toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and then off the east coast, and then
05:30it would weaken. But the message on the feed this morning is this is the tropical wave to watch.
05:37And what's our rule here? We track everything until it moves over land or dissipates. Stay with us.
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