Winter set to make an appearance

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at what the weather will be like Thanksgiving week in the United States.

Transcript

00:00All right, we're closing in on December and I am on the hunt for snow across the Midwest and

00:07Northeast. We haven't had a whole lot, but I do think the pattern now is starting to evolve

00:12that snow at least becomes part of the discussion. Beginning late this weekend and as we head into

00:19early December, I want to give you some highlights here and some talking points. Now, it's going to

00:25be turning colder from the lakes to the Northeast as we get in the next weekend. This is after

00:30Thanksgiving. Now, as I always say, you've got two chances for snow when you have cold air on the

00:38front end and on the back end. This is going to be on the front end that we're going to have the

00:44possibility for snow in the area to watch is going to be New England. I don't believe it's New York

00:49City on South Boston, perhaps not saying it's going to happen, but the potential is snow is there

00:55for snow in New England next weekend. And then in early December, this was actually highlighted by

01:01our long range team here by Paul Pasoluk and the crystal ball meteorologist, Joe Lumberg, early

01:05December, watch extensive cold. And with that, I think there's going to be opportunities for snow

01:12early December, not in the mid Atlantic. It's going to be across the Northern Plains heading into New

01:19England. I'll show you why. Now, yesterday we were talking about the possibility of these two storms

01:25having the ability to produce snow. The one storm coming out of Texas, this one, and then our upper

01:31low coming across California. I thought was a chance. I don't think it's going to materialize.

01:40Let me show you why here. This is the upper air pattern as we move in the Saturday. Here's your

01:46first little piece. This is what's across Texas now. This will come across the mid Atlantic. And I was

01:52thinking, well, what could happen is what happened earlier in the week where this little, a Southern

01:57piece of energy comes in to get some snow as colder air tries to bleed in. That doesn't look like that's

02:03going to happen. That would be Friday and Saturday. This is mostly going to be rain. And then you have

02:07this upper low, but yeah, what's going to happen with this is as it moves eastward, it, it, it weakens.

02:16Here's your colder air coming in, but this storm moves up into the lakes. Any cold, any snow would

02:21be up in Canada. So we've lost that threat. However, it was yesterday. I said, watch next weekend along

02:31the East coast, watch next weekend along the East coast. Let me show you why. Let me show you the

02:36upper air pattern. Watch what happens as we get into Friday. Look what's going on here. Let's stop

02:41this Friday morning. You've got colder air coming in behind our frontal boundary. And then you've got

02:47this big dip in the jet stream. So what it sets up like, uh, uh, at the surface is this, you get this

02:55going on here at the surface. There's the ingredients. You've got a frontal boundary that stalls,

03:00right? You've got colder air coming on in, um, across the lakes toward the Northeast. And then of

03:07course you have the warmer water, uh, in the Atlantic. So that sets up this boundary that stalls.

03:13Uh, there is going to be a storm to form on this boundary. No doubt about it. But the key is this,

03:19does the storm get driven out to sea or does it get guided up the coast? There is some evidence,

03:29and it was yesterday that this would be driven out to sea and nothing happens. But I told you

03:34that there was a possibility, especially if this dip in the jet stream came a little farther South,

03:41there would be room for this, the storm to come up the coast. And if it would come up the coast,

03:47it's cold enough for snow across the Northeast. Is it the most likely scenario? No,

03:54but I'm telling you there's a chance. Let's take a look at this. This is, I've seen this pattern

04:02before in the past. So this is what's going on. This is the European model here. Look what's going

04:07on. You've got a, you've got that boundary along the shore, uh, on Thursday and Friday, but watch this

04:14drop. Watch this dip it right here. Look at this. All of a sudden you've got this energy,

04:20you've got colder air coming in and look where this is guided. This energy is not out to sea.

04:27It's right up the coast. You see that? Watch this right there. Look at that energy coming around the

04:34base Friday night and Saturday, just like this. Now the American model says, no, that's not going

04:39to be right. Look at the difference. Look at the difference in the depth of the trough. The deeper the

04:44trough, the more likely the storm gets guided up the coast. This is the European. There's the GFS.

04:51That's a big difference. European GFS, European. Look at the difference here. European GFS. So the

04:56European, the American model by Saturday morning, look at the European, look at the GFS, European GFS,

05:02huge difference. What does it mean on the surface? Well, this is the European model right here. Watch

05:10this because you have a deeper trough. The European says, here comes my storm and I'm coming up the coast.

05:16And that's a snowstorm for New England. Even Boston would be close. The American model says, no,

05:23the trough is not deep enough, right? So the storm is out to sea. There is no snow. Look at the

05:31difference. Saturday evening, European, American, European, American. You have to watch this. You really

05:41have to watch this. There's a lot that can happen with this. You have to remember the energy, by the

05:46way, that's going to be forming this storm, this storm right here, whether it's offshore or up the

05:54coast, that energy is in China right now, right? So we've got a long, long way to figure out where

06:01that goes. But I'm telling you, there's a possibility. You've got to keep an eye on this.

06:07And that will be Saturday and a Sunday. Now, moving forward, let me show you this. Moving

06:13forward, early December, look at the pattern across the country. You've got upper low here in the west

06:20and you have cold air bleeding across the north central United States. What does that mean?

06:24In early December, so this is the week after Thanksgiving, let's watch these areas for areas

06:30of snow. From the lakes toward the northeastern United States, you can see it. Look at the snow coming

06:36in here. There's an area of snow, Wisconsin toward New England. That would be Monday into Tuesday,

06:41the first and the second, followed by additional storms Thursday and Friday. Winter's not on the

06:47map yet, but it's coming. Watch next weekend along the east coast.

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