What are the odds of a landfalling hurricane in the US?

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics.

Transcript

00:00What are the odds that our tropical wave right now around 40 degrees west will make a U.S. landfall

00:13as a hurricane? That's the focus of the forecast feed. And I want to go right off the bat because

00:19in this day and age, whenever you try to make a forecast and whenever you say there's a possibility

00:24of a U.S. landfall, everybody says that you're trying to hype. I'm not hyping this. I'm

00:29telling you right now, the odds of this hitting the United States of the hurricane are very

00:34small. But guess what? They're not zero. And that's not hype. That's just the facts. Take

00:40a look at the satellite here this morning. There's our tropical wave around 40 degrees west. Just

00:46to illustrate, think about it this way. Here's the beginning. This is where we're starting.

00:51This is the determination of the endgame. Will it get to the United States? This is the start.

00:58This is the end. And there are many steps for that to occur. In fact, I made a little

01:05flowchart here. And I know there's a lot of information on this, but I want you to look

01:09at it this way. Here's where we are today, the tropical wave. There's no development in

01:15the early next week. And then here is the endgame. Look what has to happen. And up top here is toward

01:23an impact for the United States. Look at all of the steps that have to occur for this tropical

01:29wave to make an impact on the United States. Look at the little amount of steps that this

01:34tropical wave here has to go through to miss the United States. First of all, it could dissipate

01:40due to it being too far south, dry air and wind shear. But let's say it does survive. Then

01:47even toward the end here, this dip in the jet stream, there are many more ways that it takes

01:53that system and moves it away from the United States. So just that graphic itself, it illustrates

02:00to everyone why it is that right now the odds are small. I will say this, though. It appears

02:09to us that this storm, this system will survive the many obstacles to at least become a hurricane.

02:17I want to show that to you here. These are the models here. And this is, again, this is,

02:24let me go back here really quick. This is the model runs that are showing you right now where this is

02:33going to be. So this is going to be the European model here right now. And this is what's going

02:39on with this model here. This is the European. And I want to show this to you right now that as you

02:45go forward, let me turn this back off for a second here. Now we're at where I want to be. Okay. So

02:51this is the European model. And as we get into early next week, here is the tropical wave. This is it

02:58right here. This is on Monday. Then as we go into Tuesday, it's right in here as we get toward south of

03:07Hispaniola. So this is Wednesday. All right. What does the wind shear look like? Because that would

03:13be the only thing that would stop it, assuming it doesn't dissipate across South America. Look at

03:18what's going on in the upper part of the atmosphere. So your tropical wave is here and you've got this

03:23going on, this big upper high, low wind shear. And with low wind shear, and guess what you also have

03:30here? And we've been talking about this all the time. You've got this going on here, warm water

03:36temperatures. That's why we think this system is going to go into a hurricane. Okay. Based on those

03:43facts that we believe it is going to survive, the wind shear is going to survive South America.

03:51What about whether or not where this is going to go? I want to show you the modeling we have

03:57with that. We're going to take a look at the models we normally look at. The European,

04:02the American. We'll also take a look at the Canadian model. What are they showing this system

04:07doing moving forward here? We'll take a look at this. We'll start with the American model. And the

04:12area you're going to focus in on is right in this box right here. This is the American model. What does

04:18it do? Toward Puerto Rico and the islands. So well east of the United States. Huge problem for Puerto

04:26Rico though. So our friends in Puerto Rico batting down the hatches. You have to keep an eye on this

04:30Wednesday into Thursday. What about the Canadian model? And you could see it in here. There it is.

04:36Here's the Canadian model. This is on Tuesday. Where does that take it? Right in toward Hispaniola.

04:41So right now, Hispaniola toward Puerto Rico, right? How about, how about the European model? Where does

04:48that take it? A little different here. See where it takes it? You see it, see it, see it. And then

04:54it takes it toward Jamaica and Cuba as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. So that's what the

05:01modeling says right now. Everything we look at right now suggests that this stays away from the

05:08United States. But from Hispaniola to Puerto Rico, you have a higher probability. However, I want to

05:15play devil's advocate and give you an idea of what has to happen for this to come to the United States.

05:22Because there is a way. It has to thread the needle, but there is a way. And it depends on these

05:29dips in the jet stream and the location of this tropical wave in the Caribbean middle part of next

05:35week. The first rule to get this to the United States, and we're not looking for it, I'm showing

05:40you how we can, is that this is 15 degrees north. This tropical wave has to stay south of 15 degrees

05:48north. And here's why. Because the first trough, this first dip in the jet stream in here on Wednesday,

05:55if this is too far north, this tropical wave, instead of being down in here, is up in here,

06:02that guides it away from the United States. That would be more Puerto Rico. But let's say it stays

06:07farther south and continues on its merry way. Well, guess what? As we get toward the latter half of the

06:12week, you've got another dip in the jet stream coming right in here. This is by the time we get

06:17into Friday and Saturday. Again, though, if this tropical wave is at 15 degrees north, this wave

06:24will be strong enough to pull it away from the United States. But if it continues to stay south of 15

06:31degrees north, and it's down in here off the Central America coast, late in the week, you've got this dip in

06:39the jet stream. And if that happens, there is a way that this comes up toward the United States,

06:46Florida, or the East Coast by the end of the month. It's not the most likely scenario,

06:52but it is the scenario, and we'll be watching it on the feed.

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