00:00And, of course, we are getting toward the tail end of the hurricane season. November, historically, not a big month for storms. We typically average about one storm. I'm really starting to doubt we're going to see anything during the month of November. Can't rule it out, but certainly even the next couple of weeks in the mid-November, boy, there's a lot of wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. I'll show you that here in a second.
00:24And once you get past mid-November, it gets even harder to get a storm to develop here. All right, take a look at the hurricane season as a whole. I mean, we really ramp up as we get into mid-August through September. October, you see a couple of bumps here. You see that right in here, mid to late October. And, of course, we have Melissa in this window.
00:45As you go through November, notice mid-November, little bump here, but then after that, it goes down very fast. So history says if you're going to get anything in November, it's early to middle part of the month. After that, the odds really start to go down here.
01:03And there's a reason for that. Even on the satellite picture right now, take a look at the tropical Atlantic. There's not much. And you know what? You have a frontal boundary here, which means you have westerly winds.
01:13So anything coming off Africa is going to get shredded. But look how clean it is here. From Hispaniola all the way back in toward the tropical Atlantic.
01:22Now, this is an area historically you look for. I'll show you why you have those showers and thunderstorms right now.
01:30But what's going on, a couple of things in the Atlantic as I take a look at this. Look at the wind shear right now across the Atlantic.
01:37Let me go full screen here for one second. You'll notice, I mean, look at the wind shear in the tropical Atlantic here.
01:43There are pockets of lower wind shear. You see that in this area?
01:47Look at the pockets of lower wind shear in here.
01:49So one wonders, well, what's going on? Also, shear here, shear here in the Caribbean. Much of the Caribbean except the southwest Caribbean here.
01:58So notice this. You've got low wind shear in here. Okay, but look at the drier air. Look at that.
02:05So where we have the low wind shear, you've got just a tremendous amount of dry air right now.
02:11So that's why right now it is very clean in the Atlantic. And it's really going to stay that way.
02:18Now, I want you to notice the difference as we go from October to November. Look how things change here.
02:26So this is historically where we could see developing in October. Now, early October, you see a lot of storms still.
02:34The whole east coast is open. Once you get into late October, you start looking into the Gulf and you start looking into the Caribbean.
02:41All right. But, you know, it does change a little bit by the end of the month. Look at the difference then as we go from October to November.
02:51Yeah. You lose. You notice what happens? You lose the entire tropical Atlantic. It's gone.
02:59The African wave train is over because of wind shear and dry air.
03:02You can get upper lows to form in this area and slowly but surely that can gain some tropical characteristics, but it's not heading toward the United States.
03:11Instead, it's this development. This is where you look, southwest Atlantic and into the Caribbean.
03:18And by the way, it's very similar November to what you see in the early part of the years in June and even July.
03:25And there's a reason for that, because the process in which you see development in November is very similar to the way you see processes develop tropical development in June and July.
03:36It's homegrown development. And homegrown development, it's not just the development close to the United States.
03:43The way in which you get homegrown development is different than how you get development during the other part of the year.
03:49You're not looking at tropical waves coming across the Atlantic, getting into the Caribbean and develop like Melissa.
03:55Instead, you get development because of the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics here.
04:03And that happens, jet stream comes south. What does the jet stream bring?
04:08It brings upper lows, it brings fronts, and it can produce gyres, areas of low pressure down here in the southwestern Caribbean.
04:18Now, you get in the area of low pressure to form, it must sit over these warm waters, the Gulf, southwest Atlantic, and the Caribbean for a minimum of 48 hours, minimum of 48 hours to develop.
04:32And if you can get those conditions, you can get tropical development.
04:37Okay, so having said that, do we have a dip in the jet stream in these areas?
04:43And the answer is yes. It absolutely is yes.
04:47In fact, let me zoom back over here and you can see what I'm talking about.
04:51You have a dip in the jet stream right here, right in here, coming in across the Gulf of Mexico.
04:58You see this? Right in here.
04:59All right. So, because of that dip in the jet stream right in here, look what's going on.
05:05You have an area of showers and thunderstorms trying to develop here across the southwestern Caribbean.
05:11See all the white in here? These are showers and thunderstorms.
05:14So, you're starting to get at least showers and thunderstorms in this area.
05:19The question is, what's the wind shear like?
05:22Well, let's take a look at the wind shear.
05:24Where you see the dark yellows and reds, that's where you have wind shear.
05:27You notice, this is the wind shear Tuesday morning.
05:31You have lower wind shear in here.
05:34Watch it start to lower as we get into Tuesday.
05:37See, right in here.
05:39Look at the low wind shear in here.
05:40You don't see any coloring here.
05:42So, your window for this to develop is going to be tomorrow in the Wednesday.
05:46Does it have enough time?
05:49I don't think so.
05:50I don't think so.
05:52Look what happens as we go forward.
05:53And again, I want you to concentrate on this.
05:55Here's Florida, right?
05:57Here's Florida.
05:58You can see here is Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the islands.
06:03Here's the Caribbean.
06:04Watch what happens moving forward here.
06:06Let me play this forward.
06:08Watch as we get into Thursday and Friday.
06:10See what's going on in the southwest Atlantic by Sunday and Monday.
06:13Or the southwest Caribbean.
06:14You're starting to get some colors here.
06:16Yellows and oranges.
06:17The wind shear is starting to increase.
06:19How about as we get into Monday and Tuesday of next week?
06:22Look at the wind shear again.
06:24Much of the Caribbean covered in wind shear.
06:26And I'll tell you what.
06:27Look at the Atlantic colored in the yellows and the reds.
06:30Listen, we're going to keep an eye on this area in the southwest Caribbean.
06:36But I'm starting to doubt seriously that anything will have time to develop.
06:41In fact, this area right in here, I think the time frame is going to be through Wednesday.
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