Is the Atlantic hurricane season over?

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.

Transcript

00:00It was about two weeks ago here on the feed, we talked about how a tropical wave coming off Africa would be the one to watch.

00:08If it could survive all of its hurdles, get into the Caribbean, look out, that's exactly what happened.

00:15And I think as we look back at this hurricane season, Melissa is going to be the storm that defines the 2025 hurricane season.

00:25You can see the track, the only hurricane and only named storm that made its way into the Caribbean so far this season.

00:32I mean, you take a look at look at all of the storms in the Atlantic.

00:35At the current time, only one named storm made landfall.

00:39That was Chantal.

00:4113 named storms, five hurricanes.

00:44And of the five hurricanes, I mean, you've had four major hurricanes and three category five hurricanes.

00:51And of course, we believe that this was a subtropical storm, certainly provided the impacts along the Carolina coast.

00:58So as we take a look at Melissa, let's review.

01:01There's a couple of ways that you define the strength of a hurricane here.

01:07Wind and pressure.

01:09Let's do pressure first.

01:11From a pressure standpoint, 892 millibars makes Melissa the third strongest storm in the Atlantic on record here.

01:20You can see some of the storms that it was able to tie here.

01:25The Labor Day hurricane, that is still the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the United States.

01:31A pressure there of 892 millibars.

01:33All right.

01:34How about the wind?

01:35Well, it's tied in second place with 185 mile per hour sustained winds.

01:40Only Allen had higher winds, 190 setback in 1980.

01:46So the question remains now, what next?

01:50As we get out of October, I don't think there's any more storms for the next couple of days.

01:54So we talk about November.

01:56Long-term averages suggest that you get a storm every other year in November.

02:02It could be a tropical storm or a hurricane.

02:04But recently, we've had a storm almost every year.

02:08Now, where do you look for storms during the month of November?

02:12Well, a couple of areas.

02:14Let's first talk about the early part of November.

02:17Sometimes, you could still get tropical waves coming across Africa.

02:21This would be very early in November.

02:23But by and large, the African wave train is about over.

02:27Now, you start concentrating on homegrown development.

02:30How do we get that?

02:31When we get a dip in the jet stream far south, it could interact with the warm waters of the Caribbean or the Gulf.

02:37And that's how you get development.

02:39And it's interesting, when you look at the middle to latter half of November, that's where you typically start seeing development here.

02:46Sure, you can get a storm or two out here in the Atlantic.

02:50But certainly, there's no impact on the United States.

02:53So it's the Caribbean we look for development.

02:56And oh, by the way, with westerly winds getting more and more pronounced across Texas and the central Gulf Coast states,

03:03the area to watch for direct impacts is typically going to be South Florida.

03:09Maybe the North Carolina coast, there could be a close impact.

03:13But it's typically South Florida and the rest of the Gulf is typically shut down.

03:20All right.

03:21So what's going on right now?

03:23Let me show you this.

03:25Let me show you the water vapor loop here.

03:27And then we'll show you the state of the Atlantic Basin moving forward here.

03:32We begin, you know, we always talk about two things.

03:34Dry air, wind shear.

03:36Waters are still warm enough.

03:37I'll show you that in a second.

03:38But right now, you do have some pockets of dry air here in the Atlantic.

03:42Notice where you do have some moisture in the Southwest Caribbean.

03:46That's going to be a common theme.

03:47How about wind shear?

03:48Current wind shear.

03:49And this is just quite typical for the month of November.

03:54Look at the strong wind shear.

03:56Let me get out of here for a second so you could see it off Africa.

03:59So any of these tropical waves coming off Africa are going to be dealing with this West wind shear.

04:04They most likely will not be able to survive.

04:07You will note, though, the one area right in here in the Caribbean, the light pink showing you less wind shear.

04:15So that's what it looks like now.

04:17How is it going to change?

04:18Well, I want to show you some of the modeling.

04:21And this is what the feed is all about.

04:23I want you to see the products that I look at.

04:26And, of course, everything can be found on the AccuWeather Pro site here.

04:30Here's our shear map here.

04:32And let me give you your bearings.

04:33This is the West Coast of Africa.

04:36Here's the United States.

04:37Here's Florida.

04:38Here's Cuba right here.

04:40Here are the Lesser Antilles.

04:42Notice as I go forward these yellows and reds.

04:45That means you have very high wind shear.

04:47This is next week.

04:49Watch as we go forward in the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.

04:52Look at all of the wind shear.

04:54Again, here is Florida here.

04:57Here's the West Coast of Africa.

04:58The entire Atlantic Basin is pretty much shut down because of the wind shear.

05:03You see the dark reds?

05:04That's wind shear.

05:05Nothing will survive.

05:06Even as we get beyond that, the wind shear is high.

05:10But notice in here some blue.

05:13Let me give you a close-up of what the Caribbean looks like here.

05:17So this is starting on Sunday.

05:19So here we go.

05:20Here's Florida right in here.

05:21Then we have Mexico.

05:23This is Central America.

05:24Here's Cuba.

05:25A lot of lower wind shear in the Caribbean beginning on first week in October here of November.

05:32And look at it as we go forward here.

05:33This is the 4th.

05:34This is Wednesday the 5th.

05:36The 6th.

05:37Through the 6th.

05:38The 7th.

05:39Well, after about the 5th, you start getting wind shear.

05:42But you can see there's low wind shear in here.

05:44The question is, the question is, is there anything that could develop in that area?

05:51What does the pattern look like?

05:52Well, I want to show you this as we get into next week.

05:55Let me show you this.

05:56This is the European and the American model also say the same thing.

05:59Look at where this high-pressure system is.

06:01This is early next week, Tuesday, Wednesday.

06:04Where do you look for development?

06:05Underneath the belly of the upper high, that's the American model.

06:11Look at the European model.

06:13Look at the American model.

06:15Look at that.

06:15There's your high, and it's sensing some energy in here.

06:19That's the area to look at moving forward here.

06:22We're not outlooking an area yet.

06:25But I'll tell you what.

06:26If we're going to get development in the Caribbean, anywhere in the Atlantic Basin,

06:32this is the area to watch moving forward here.

06:36The time frame on this is going to be as we get in the early November.

06:42If we get development, that's where it would be.

06:44And as always, you have to keep an eye on South Florida.

06:47And that's today's feed.

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