00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead, hurricane expert, Alex DeSilva.
00:04You know, Alex, it was, remember you and I, 10 days ago, we were like, you know what?
00:08And I like what you said, the tropical wave that was just forgotten about would go incognito
00:14for a few days, only to reappear.
00:17And we said, hey, listen, if this can overcome the challenges, then it's got a shot to develop.
00:25One more hurdle with this today.
00:28Yeah, it's dealing with land right now, but once it gets free of Hispaniola later on today
00:34and tonight, it's going to be in an area of very favorable conditions for development.
00:38The waters are warm, the lowering wind shear.
00:40So I think we're going to have Imelda probably sometime tomorrow, I think, as it moves north
00:46of Hispaniola.
00:48That's the area that we're watching down there right now.
00:50And then the big question is, how does it interact with Umberto to the east?
00:55But look at these water temperatures, especially in the Bahamas, middle 80s, plenty of warmth
01:00to work with here.
01:01So the ocean temperatures are very warm.
01:04And look at this area of lower wind shear where this tropical wave, future Imelda, we believe,
01:09is going to be heading into.
01:11So low wind shear, plenty of warm water.
01:14That's a recipe for a storm to intensify in the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas later this
01:20weekend.
01:21Have you ever seen a National Hurricane Center fly as many flights into this as we've seen?
01:25And we're not criticizing them.
01:27We agree with their assessment.
01:28They really need to find where the center of circulation with this.
01:33You can't track it until you know exactly where it is.
01:37Yeah.
01:37And it's not only about the center of circulation.
01:39It's about the environment around the storm as well.
01:41So they have some flights that fly around the storm, sampling upper air stuff as well.
01:47So that impacts the movement of the storm.
01:49So all of this data goes into the models.
01:51And hopefully by tomorrow, once this gets north of the islands, hopefully we have a little
01:56bit of a better idea about where it's going to be going.
01:58But we expect this to become Imelda here in the next day or so coming through the islands.
02:03Now, right now we think whether it's a tropical storm or hurricane, it'll be off the east coast
02:09of Florida on Sunday.
02:11OK, based on that premise, Alex, let's talk about where it could go.
02:18Yeah, from there it's going to be steered to the north.
02:20You have a dip in the jet stream to the west that's going to be drawing that storm to the
02:24north.
02:25But let's not forget about Umberto to the east.
02:28This storm, this hurricane, likely to be a major hurricane this weekend, is going to
02:32have an impact on where Imelda goes.
02:36So here's scenario number one.
02:38If Umberto is really strong and Imelda is really weak, we will probably have a situation, and
02:43this is the best case scenario for the United States, the weaker storm just gets absorbed
02:47into the stronger storm and goes safely out to sea without direct impacts to the United
02:52States.
02:52This is scenario number one.
02:53But I'm concerned that this might not be the most likely scenario because it's looking
02:58more and more likely like Imelda is going to become a little bit stronger with those
03:03atmospheric conditions that favor intensification.
03:06Yeah, because, you know, if you just took a, let's say Umberto doesn't have an impact.
03:10Let's just wipe it out for a second.
03:12The steering flow would take this right into the Carolinas.
03:15And if you look at the history of storms that are in this area, typically they go where?
03:20There are Carolinas between Charleston and somewhere toward the outer banks of North Carolina.
03:25So we can't rule out this scenario, but we are concerned about the Carolina coast.
03:31This is called the Fuji war effect.
03:33You see this a lot in the Pacific, Alex.
03:35Yeah, this is what would happen if the both of the storms end up probably becoming hurricanes.
03:39And if they're within about 700 or 850 miles of one another, they'll actually start to
03:45dance, kind of like two figure skaters.
03:47They'll start to rotate around each other and their paths might become a little more
03:51erratic.
03:52Now, this could allow the storm to the west, Imelda, to get forced a little bit further
03:57north towards the Carolina coast, then maybe potentially stall and then get pulled off the
04:02coast.
04:02So it's a very complex situation.
04:05And I think anyone from Florida all the way to the Carolinas needs to watch this very,
04:09very carefully, especially up into the Carolinas, because this track could be a little bit erratic.
04:15And if it slows down near or on the coast, we could be dealing with a major big time rainmaker
04:20as well.
04:21So plenty of time to watch it.
04:22But this would be early next week.
04:24So it's going to come up on us quick.
04:26So that's why it's going to be very important the next 24 hours to follow the forecast very closely.
04:31AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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