00:00And we are expecting Tropical Storm Melissa to be official in the Caribbean. As we go through
00:07today, it will be the first named storm in the Caribbean of the Atlantic hurricane season here.
00:14Here's what to expect from Melissa over the next few days. We do believe it will develop into a
00:18hurricane later on this week. It's going to be a slow mover. That's going to cause major problems
00:25with life-threatening flooding, perhaps, depending on the track, in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
00:31A U.S. landfall at this point is unlikely, but it is not impossible. And I'm telling you,
00:38we cannot rule out Florida just yet. All right, let me show you what this looks like
00:44on the satellite picture here. And you can see it's getting a little better organized. It's
00:49cylindrical. You see it's round in appearance here. And look at the dark red showing you you
00:54have cold cloud tops. That means you have a lot of upward motion. And that means you have showers
00:59and thunderstorms. The concern all week, in fact, all hurricane season, is that since we haven't had
01:06a storm in the Caribbean or the Gulf, water temperatures are super duper warm. Here's the
01:11anomalies. And so what you're looking at here, look at this orange area where this is located. I mean,
01:17you're at about three or four degrees above the historical average. Historically, we're looking
01:22at water temperatures around 84. Now we're talking about 87, 88 degrees. And warm water can overcome
01:29a lot of challenges. The only challenges for development here is wind shear right now. Let
01:36me show you the wind shear that we're looking at here. We're looking at 200 millibus, about 40,000 feet.
01:42What you're looking at is the darker colors that you see is where you have wind shear. Now, as we go
01:48forward, this is 15 degrees north. We talked about this last week. Anything north of 15 degrees north,
01:55you have some wind shear coming out of the west right in here. I mean, take a look. This is this
02:00evening, right? Let me take you to tomorrow evening, Thursday. You still have wind shear here. Here's 15
02:06degrees north. Look at these west winds here. So anything coming up into this area, Melissa, while you
02:12have super duper warm water, the limiting factor to the strength will be wind shear. How about as we
02:18get, let's jump ahead in the Friday. Look at the wind shear increasing here across the northern
02:23Caribbean. Now, south of 15 degrees north or near 15 degrees north in this area, there is less wind
02:31shear. And my worry is, as long as what will be Melissa moves northward into the northern Caribbean,
02:39it will not be able to rapidly intensify. But boy, the farther south this stays, the more worried I
02:46get. In fact, by Saturday, and again, by Saturday, we're going to be looking at this system somewhere
02:51in this box. You've got wind shear here, but if it would find its way down into here, between 20 and
02:5715 degrees north, there's low wind shear. And with super duper warm water, this would rapidly
03:03intensify. So that's the concern. First thing is, how far north is this going to get? The farther
03:10north, the more likely it will not become a powerful hurricane. The farther south and west,
03:15the more likely it will. There's still lots of different guidance on this, and I'll continue to
03:21show you what the modeling is showing, the American and European models. And these models have stayed
03:26fairly consistent. We will begin with the American model. I want you to focus in here. The red, this
03:33is energy. This is the approximate location, given this model, where Melissa will be, right? Watch the
03:42American model. It's been very consistent. You see where it pulls it? North, north, north, north. Now,
03:47this is one of the models. A lot of the other, what we call ensembles, are west of here. But this is a
03:54possible track. This would be the worst case scenario for Hispaniola, because it would then stall
04:00and produce tremendous and catastrophic range. You see that? Look how it moves. This is Wednesday
04:06night. This is Thursday night. This is Friday night. This is Saturday morning, and then not moving away
04:13until early next week. This would be catastrophic. The European model, a little different here. Now,
04:19they're very much the same at Thursday morning. European-American, European-American, European-American.
04:26Notice the American model strengthens it faster. There's more lines. Now, let's go to Friday morning.
04:31European-American. There's a difference. So, this is when the American model, Friday morning,
04:36takes this across Hispaniola. The European says, no, it stays farther south and then continues to move
04:42farther south as we get into Sunday, as we get into Monday. And then, by Tuesday morning,
04:48it's south of Jamaica. The European model would be a far better solution for Cuba and Hispaniola.
04:56That would bring that, leave the heaviest rain off to the south. Jamaica, this is the worst case
05:01scenario. And I will say this, the farther south and west this goes, as we get into early next week,
05:08the more likely it hits the United States or it becomes more of a possibility. All right, let me show
05:13you the AccuWeather iPad here. Here it is. This is what we're going with right now. And let's
05:18let me put this on so you could see it. Right now, we're in the middle of those possibilities,
05:24a turn to the north or to the west, right? We're in the between. This would not be a good scenario
05:30for Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, because the rain amounts would be catastrophic, I'm afraid,
05:38where you'd be looking at amounts over a foot in some spots with an AccuWeather local storm max of
05:43two feet. So this is the worst case scenario. But if this gets farther south and west,
05:50and by the way, if it would take this track, I think it would likely stay east of the United States.
05:55But what I'm worried about, if it takes this farther south and west track, and there is guidance that
06:01shows that, then it becomes a problem potentially for the United States. And here's why. Because when
06:09you look at next week, you look at the pattern next week, I want to show it to you early next week,
06:16look what this looks like as we go forward. You start getting a big dip in the jet stream here in
06:22Texas. Here's where the European has the storm. I don't like this trough so far west, because that
06:29would keep it, give you some room to bring this to the United States. I'm not sure, but it is a
06:35concern. Take a look at this. Right now, this is what we're thinking. The more likely path stays
06:40east of the United States, but I'm worried you could have a track like this early next week towards
06:46South Florida. Not the most likely, but it's not impossible either.
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