In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish breaks down the latest on the tropics, including Imelda's path and any other threats that may be circulating in the Atlantic.
00:00Well, once again, we have hurricanes, we have strong hurricanes, but no landfalls on the United States.
00:08We have really lucked out during the month of September because if you think about it, we've had three hurricanes.
00:14They've all been major hurricanes, two Category 5s, one Category 4, and we're about to get the fourth hurricane of the season.
00:24All right, let me take you out to the satellite picture here this morning.
00:27Now, this is Hurricane Umberto. You can see it off to the east. This is 65 degrees west, by the way.
00:34Here are the Bermuda Islands. Here is, of course, Imelda. These are only separated by about 650 miles or so.
00:44Now, the story with Imelda was how slow it took to develop.
00:50Now, you'll notice on the satellite pictures, we'll move over here a little bit,
00:55you can clearly see what is the overall movement of the cloud structure right in toward the Carolinas.
01:03And remember on Friday, we talked about if there would be a landfall, it was going to be in this area.
01:08Now, we talked also about the idea that Imelda would have to move out in front of Umberto.
01:14It had to stay out ahead of it to make that move in toward the United States, but it was slow to develop.
01:22But I want to show you this because I think by looking at some of the modeling, you could see that it was a closer call than you might have thought here.
01:32Let me explain here as we, let me go to the, let me go to the different view here really quickly.
01:40Okay, let me explain as we take a look at some of the modeling here.
01:43So, here's what the idea was on Friday.
01:48You would have this upper low here, then you would have Imelda, then you would have Umberto, and it was a tug of war.
01:56The upper low pushing this way, Imelda pushing this way, which would win.
02:00Well, a lot of it has to also do with the speed of the system.
02:04Let me explain.
02:05I'm going to zoom in on my maps a little bit here.
02:07So, let's go to 8 o'clock this morning.
02:09So, here's Imelda, I'm going to put it on X, it's right in here, right?
02:14It's right in here.
02:15However, we had thought that there was a possibility that Imelda, instead of being here, right, was going to be up in here.
02:27Almost at the same latitude as Jacksonville.
02:30Now, I want to focus your attention right here, and look where this piece of energy moves today.
02:38There it is right here.
02:39I'm going to put the X on it right here.
02:41All right, you see it?
02:43Now, watch the way this energy moves.
02:45This afternoon, this evening.
02:48See where it goes?
02:49Let's go back.
02:50See that energy right here?
02:52I want you to focus on this box here.
02:55Watch how that energy moves where?
02:59Into the Carolina coast, right in here, tonight.
03:04So, that's the difference.
03:06Instead of being down here, if it was up in here, then we would have had a very close encounter.
03:14Very close encounter.
03:16But, it stayed farther south, and that's why, as we move forward here, we're going to see Imelda take that right turn, because it's going to be forced by Umberto off to the north.
03:28Why?
03:29Because Umberto outran it.
03:31So, close call, but thankfully, once again, we're not going to have a landfall.
03:37All right, moving forward here, let's take a look at the hurricane season as a whole.
03:41It's a six-month season, but the majority of the storms are when they occur during September and mostly October, right in here.
03:50Well, you could say August through October 15th.
03:53Let's even say by the end of the month.
03:55This is the majority of the action.
03:57But the seasons do change a little bit here.
04:00The areas do differ.
04:02Look at the area that you look for for development during the month of September.
04:06The entire Atlantic Basin is usually open for business.
04:11Now, the last couple of years, there's been so much wind shear that we've been looking a little closer to home.
04:17Watch how it changes.
04:18Watch the area change.
04:20There it is in September.
04:22Here's October.
04:23You start bringing it in, and certainly that's the case by the time we get into the latter half of October.
04:30So, what do conditions look like right now across the Atlantic Basin?
04:35Well, it's a microcosm of what we've seen so far this year.
04:39What I want to do is I want to show you the wind shear product moving forward here.
04:44Let me get your bearings straight so you know where we're looking at here.
04:47This is the west coast of Africa.
04:50This is Florida in here.
04:53These are the lesser Antilles right in here.
04:56Look at all of the wind shear this evening.
04:59Where you see this dark coloring is wind shear.
05:02Almost all of the Atlantic is covered in wind shear.
05:04Let's go a week from now.
05:06Let's go a week from now.
05:07So, this is Monday, October 6th.
05:10Again, here's the west coast of Africa, right?
05:14Here is Florida and the United States.
05:17Here's Cuba.
05:18So, even if a tropical wave can get through this area where you don't see the wind shear, that's where you don't see any colors,
05:25you still have pockets of wind shear here, here, and here, in the Gulf, the Caribbean, and right near the islands.
05:35Let's go to a week then, October 12th.
05:41Again, look at the wind shear across most of the Atlantic here.
05:47But you'll notice this, lowering wind shear.
05:50Where?
05:51In there, across the Caribbean, and also into the Gulf.
05:58And that's why, as we move forward, we will continue to watch this area, mid to late October.
06:05Don't look for a tropical wave coming across the tropical Atlantic.
06:08I think we have to look for homegrown development in the Gulf, and also in the Caribbean.
06:16And that's the message for the feed this morning.
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