00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead, hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, and of course, we've been talking about Umberto.
00:08But as we head into early next week, Alex, we're going to see two storms of close proximity to each other, we think, and we do have a name for that.
00:20Storms get within about 850 miles of each other, and then they can start to pull on each other or dance around each other a little bit.
00:28So it can cause some erratic movements between the two different cyclones.
00:33So this is something we're going to have to watch very carefully over the next couple of days.
00:37If we just had one storm, the forecast would be much more straightforward.
00:42But since there's two of them, there's going to be some wiggle room, I think, in the forecast over the next couple of days.
00:48It's not only the forecast that's a little murky at the current time, Alex.
00:53It's trying to figure out exactly where we have a low-level center.
00:59Right now, it's more of a broad circulation, but not having a low-level circulation is problematic as well.
01:07Yeah, it certainly is.
01:08We're thinking that it's somewhere right now located just off the eastern tip of Cuba.
01:12But look at all the convection to the south and east of where we think that low-level center might be trying to form.
01:19That could be problematic here as it could try to drag that low-level center a little more south or west.
01:25So we're going to have to watch these trends here over the next 12 to 24 hours to see exactly where this low-level center forms.
01:31If it keeps moving west, you know, we could have whole different problems if it tries to get into the northern Caribbean here.
01:36So we're just going to have to watch it.
01:38We still do expect this to pull to the north.
01:40But, you know, until a low-level center actually forms, you know, there still can be a little bit of a discrepancy on where this could end up.
01:49Now, of course, the farther west it gets, the more problematic, perhaps, for Florida instead of the Carolinas.
01:57So that's something.
01:59I know the Hurricane Center is flying a plane in right now.
02:02But regardless of the exact location, whether it's the northwest Caribbean or in the Bahamas, waters are just exceptionally warm.
02:10Yeah, indeed they are.
02:11We look for about 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
02:13You have some 86s, maybe even some 87s in some areas.
02:17So plenty, plenty, plenty of energy to work with with this storm.
02:21And look at the area that it's moving into, an environment of lower wind shear.
02:26So that is going to be problematic, I do believe.
02:28Once it's able to pull away from the islands, which I think are preventing any development right now, it's going to get into an environment ripe for development.
02:36And then we could see a tropical storm on our hands.
02:39And then the big question is, does it stay closer to the coast and then drive inland across the Carolinas?
02:45Or does Umberto to the east have an influence and pull it a little bit further offshore?
02:51Well, I've been showing this all morning.
02:53So we've been saying all along, by Sunday, it's off the Florida coast.
02:56Okay, as you mentioned, if we didn't have Umberto, this would be pretty straightforward.
03:02If we put your hand and rock out Umberto, the high near Bermuda and the upper low across the Appalachians would drive this into the Carolinas.
03:13And historical tracks show that it would most likely be between Charleston and, let's say, Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
03:19But you were talking about the Fujiwara effect.
03:22That's one way to look at it.
03:23The other way is just a good old tug of war between the upper low and Umberto.
03:29Yeah, it's whichever one's going to win out.
03:31And I think if our probably tropical storm here is able to move a little quicker, then the upper low probably wins out.
03:39And then the storm is able to come inland.
03:41However, if the storm takes a little bit longer to get organized near Cuba, if it meanders around down there, that allows Umberto to come in a little bit closer.
03:52And then it gets within that 850 miles.
03:55And then it's able to pull the storm more offshore.
03:57So we could be dealing with a variety of situations where potentially the storm could come inland, stall, and then back out, back over the ocean.
04:05So anyone from Florida up to the Carolinas needs to watch this very carefully.
04:11Certainly the potential for a big-time flooding event is on the table here across the Carolinas if we indeed do get that stall.
04:19So we're going to watch out for a potential landfall.
04:22Could happen anywhere between Monday night into Wednesday.
04:25Again, a lot of that is depending on the exact timing and how quickly that rainstorm is able to come to the north.
04:31And then like I said, we're watching for potentially life-threatening flooding if that storm is able to come inland, maybe stall, and then back, back out over the ocean.
04:41But what we are confident in right now, highly, highly confident, rough seas across the entirety of the East Coast, I think, starting probably Sunday into Monday.
04:50And then the beach conditions, anybody along the East Coast next week especially needs to watch out very carefully because there's going to be rip current risks anywhere from Florida to Maine.
05:01And, of course, the Outer Banks of North Carolina already reeling from two systems that cause so many problems.
05:06AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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