00:00We've had a break in the action in the Atlantic Basin. It has been quiet, quiet, quiet, but I
00:05think we're going to go from tranquil to chaotic in the next 10 days to 14 days. Let me show you
00:12what we're watching here this morning. This tropical wave coming off Africa, we've been
00:17talking about that all week. Now, I do believe that this has a chance to develop here. Let me
00:21show you some of the modeling that we're looking at here. You see when we're looking at the upper
00:26air charts here, this is on Sunday. So, the tropical wave that's here by Sunday is right
00:31around in here. You see the yellow and orange shading here? That's the tropical wave that
00:36we're watching. Now, there's all kind of modeling. In fact, there's more models in the field of
00:41meteorology than there are models walking on the runway in Paris, and they are helpful in
00:46determining a forecast. Now, this is the American model, and you can see the yellow and orange shading
00:51here. This is a tropical wave. It is interesting to note that the most accurate model, the European,
00:57doesn't have anything. Look at the difference. American, European, American, European, nothing.
01:02Now, which is right? Well, what I like to do is look at the wind shear in this area, where you see
01:08the dark yellows and reds. That's where you have wind shear. This tropical wave is going to be moving
01:12in this area where you see a lot of blue. That tells me there's lower wind shear. So, I do think that
01:19this has an opportunity to develop. So, I'm leaning more toward the American model here. However,
01:25I'm not worried about this wave. You know why? Because in time, let's look at the American model
01:31as it continues to move to the east as we get into Tuesday. You see this? You see this dip in the jet
01:38stream in here? This is going to force this system north into the Atlantic, which means this will have
01:43no impact on the United States. We've also been talking about the one area that we've been concerned
01:50about the entire time is this, the Caribbean. That's the area to monitor as we head toward the
01:57latter half of this month. And I think there's two opportunities. I think two opportunities for the
02:03possibility of development here. Let me change my modeling here and let me show you what I'm looking
02:07at. Let's take a look at where we are as we head toward this weekend here. You see this dip in the
02:12jet stream right here across the southeast in here? What's going to happen is as we move forward,
02:18this is Sunday evening. Let's go to Wednesday evening. That upper low is still here. You see
02:23the dip in the jet stream? Watch what happens as we head toward the end of the week. You're starting
02:28to get this. This dip in the jet stream into the Gulf. The concern is that you can get an area of low
02:35pressure to deform here. So, that's an area to watch as we head into next weekend. And finally,
02:41there's going to be another tropical wave we're going to keep an eye on here. This is going to be
02:47exiting the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Let me show it to you right here.
02:57Right here. Okay, here it comes. This is the system right here. See this? Now, let me play it forward
03:04here as we move forward. Let me go full screen so you can see it a little better. So, here's the system
03:09on Tuesday. You see the yellow, orange, and red? Follow its progression Wednesday, Thursday. Here it
03:16is in the central Atlantic. And then as we get into the end of the week, it starts approaching the
03:22islands right in here. This is Friday. Now, this seems correct to me that the upper high would steer
03:29this system toward the islands as we get in the next weekend. If this gets into the Caribbean,
03:37we have a problem. And I think there's a possibility that it can certainly do that. Why are we worried
03:44about that? Because take a look at the water temperatures in the Caribbean and the Gulf.
03:53They are running well above the historical average here. This is a lot of warm water. If this system
04:00finds its way into the Caribbean and into the Gulf, we're going to have a huge problem here.
04:08So, again, I want to sum it up here. This is what we're looking at here moving forward. All right?
04:13What are we looking at? We're looking at two possibilities for development here. One in the
04:18Gulf as we get in the wind. Next weekend, this will be homegrown development, right? And then
04:24tracking that tropical wave, again, it exits the west coast of Africa Tuesday. If that enters the
04:30Caribbean, and we will be talking about next weekend into the following week, we could have some real
04:37problems from tranquil to chaotic in a snap of a finger.
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