Eerily quiet in the Atlantic Basin

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish takes a look at what's going on in the tropics.

Transcript

00:00we continue to watch the tropics now coming up we have quiet weather in the tropics and this is a

00:07huge statement i don't think we're looking at any tropical landfalls hurricanes or tropical storms

00:12in the united states for the next 10 days you're watching the forecast feed where we take a look

00:18at what's in my head and i'm going to show you some of the tools that i use to help determine

00:24what's going to happen in the tropics moving forward here first of all let's take a look at

00:29the season we are now in the heart of the hurricane season here september 10th this is where

00:35statistically we see most of the tropical storms and hurricanes but yet there is nothing and i mean

00:42nothing in the atlantic basin right now there's a reason for that ingredients now in order for

00:48tropical development these are the ingredients you need warm water limited wind shear right

00:54weak wind winds aloft and plenty of moisture what you don't look for is dry dusty air but right now

01:02we don't really have any of these ingredients we certainly have the warm water but as far as the

01:08dry air we've got tons of that right now let me show you the water vapor loop here what are we looking at

01:14look at all of this dry air this is along the west coast of africa here is florida here are the islands

01:21and look at all of this dry air you should not see all of this dry air this time of the year now from

01:29a wind shear perspective let me show you our wind shear graphic here where you see the dark purple is

01:34where you have the wind shear where you see the light purple you don't have much wind shear well right in

01:38here is where you have the wind shear now overall there's not a lot of wind shear in the atlantic basin

01:44but this is strategically located because as tropical waves come off africa they run into this wind shear

01:51and they weaken now this is what we were worried about last week remember we're worried about

01:56something trying to form in the southern atlantic there was a reason for that because when you take

02:01a look at the wind shear product there's low wind shear throughout this whole area the southern atlantic

02:07and the eastern caribbean however when you go back and let me show you this when you go back and you

02:14look at the water vapor loop again where you have the light wind shear you've got the dry air that's

02:20why we're not getting any development right now so here's the question what's going to happen with the

02:25wind shear moving forward here well there's a product for that it's the wind shear product i'm going to show

02:32you the modeling that i look at for wind shear right now let me show this to you here and we're going

02:39to track the wind shear now it looks complicated but it's very easy so where you see the dark colors in

02:45here this is where you have high wind shear we'll call it whws where you have the blue colors low wind

02:53shear now look at the atlantic right now a lot of wind shear let's go forward this is this evening what

03:00about thursday evening you still see the darker colors in the atlantic let's go to friday evening

03:06you still see these darker colors that cover much of the caribbean and the tropical atlantic let's

03:12go to sunday moving forward here as we're a few days away what do you see you still see all of this

03:18wind shear in the caribbean and also in the western atlantic how about a week from now what do we start

03:26seeing okay some changes you still have this wind shear in the atlantic but you'll notice you're

03:32starting to get blue colors and less colors here in the caribbean and also as you head into the southern

03:39atlantic here so that's where i think we're going to start getting some problems here that you're

03:46starting to get lower wind shear in those areas and at the same time what's happening well with the lower

03:53wind shear here's the concern i have because when you look at this area in here you're starting to

04:01get lower wind shear as we move into the latter half of this month across the caribbean in the southern

04:07gulf why are we concerned look at these water temperatures in the atlantic specifically here as i move

04:14on over you're starting to see uh high water temperatures what this graphic is showing you is the ocean

04:21heat content in the gulf of mexico what does that mean well that's a fancy way of saying not only do

04:27you have warm water but it's through a large depth of the uh of the uh ocean so warm water deep water

04:35warmth means you get a lot of energy in the uh in the gulf of mexico and as a result if any storms and i

04:43mean any storms come into the gulf or in the caribbean you're going to be dealing with all of this warm

04:50deep water and you know what that means that means the gulf and the atlantic is a ticking time bomb

04:59anything that gets into those bodies waters will explode

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