Tracking "the wave to watch"

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.

Transcript

00:00Is there anything left of it? That's what I'm going to try to answer for you here on the feed

00:05today. Let me show you the satellite picture. Okay, you can see it pretty here. This is Lorenzo.

00:11Look how far north this is. This is 20 degrees north. What I really should say is, look how far

00:16south this is. This is 10 degrees north. Now, lots of times when these systems are so far south,

00:22there's less what we call Coriolis effect. This occurs because of the spinning of the globe.

00:27So, the farther you get away from the equator, the more spin there is from the Coriolis effect.

00:33The closer to the equator, there's less. So, sometimes when these storms are this far south,

00:39it's hard to get it to spin up. The other problem with a system this far south, eventually,

00:45it has this roadblock called South America. The question is, as it gets that far west,

00:51will it interact with South America? And if it does, there may not be much left of it here.

00:56Let me show you. That's what it looks like. Let me show you this too. When I talk about the

01:01hurricane season so far, these are the storms that we've had here. And you'll notice this,

01:09everything, and I mean everything, has been in the Atlantic. We've had zero, and I mean zero storms

01:15here in the Caribbean. Only one in the Gulf. So, so far, everything has been into the Atlantic.

01:21There's only been one landfall in the United States. That was Chantal, though we've had other

01:27hybrid systems moving across the Carolina. One system in particular dropped a lot of rain in

01:34Southeast Virginia, but technically, no landfalling storms. So, right now, I think the epicenter of

01:40the hurricane season has been the Carolina coast, especially the Outer Banks, because of all the

01:45damage we've had from the surge. All right, let's talk about this really quick. I want to go back to

01:51this graphic quick so you see the timing of this system. So, as we move forward, it'll start

02:01approaching the islands early next week. Okay, so I keep on talking about what's left of it. All right,

02:08what is left of this storm that comes eastward? And there's a reason for that here. I have the one

02:12graphic here. I want to show you the wind shear across the islands and what this system has to

02:19get through as we move forward. Now, this is the wind speed at around 40,000 feet. Where you see the

02:24dark colors, this is wind shear. This system is going to be tracking roughly in this direction

02:31as we move forward here. Now, let me go back. This is as we get in the Saturday here. So, this system is

02:39going to be right around in here. You'll notice that there's some wind shear impacting this as it

02:46moves. So, it'll be right around in here. There's some wind shear, not a lot. Now, as we head into

02:51early next week, this system is going to be approaching this area right here near the islands.

02:58There's some west-northwest wind shear here. And the other problem is it could be close to South America.

03:04So, those are the challenges that this system is going to face. And what I want to show you is,

03:09here's some more modeling showing you where this system is going to move here. And I want to show

03:15them to you right now. Let's go ahead to Saturday. This is the American model. Look at where it is.

03:20Pretty far south. Do you see all that red? That's the American model. How about the European model?

03:25Pretty much the same area. You see that little red area? And then this is the UK Met, a British model,

03:30right in here. So, they all have it pretty far south by Sunday. How about Monday? All right.

03:36Here's the American model. This is my concern with this system. All of the modeling shows this.

03:42That's the American. Look at the European. Pretty far south. Look at the UK Met. They all have it in

03:48this zone. That's awfully far south. And that's why I think this system between the shear and it getting

03:57very close to the South American continent early next week. This could be shredded away and there

04:03won't be anything left of it. That is the possibility. However, here's the concern. All

04:09modeling are showing this. Here comes, look at the American model showing this area of increasing red

04:15here south of Hispaniola. How about the European? Same thing. Little area. In fact, as we go forward

04:22here, look out of the European continues to show this, getting just south. There it is. South of

04:28Hispaniola. When? Late next week. There's the European model. Here's the American model. They have

04:33it as a hurricane. But they all have it. All have it. Surviving into this zone. Okay. Based on that,

04:41we're always talking about wind shear. What does the wind shear look like in this area during that time?

04:47So we're talking about Thursday of next week. What does it look like? Take a look at it. So it's going

04:54to be right in here. All of the modeling show that it's right in here. Look at this. And what's going

05:01on in this area late next week? A big upper high. And underneath upper highs, what do you get? Low

05:09wind shear. And then take a look at this. Look, and we've been showing this every day now. Look at this warm

05:16water. Located where? Right in here with low wind shear. If this survives, if this survives,

05:26I'm concerned it can go fast and go very fast. What would happen after that then? Well, it all depends

05:33on this dip in the jet stream that we're going to be looking at off the East Coast. This dip in the jet

05:39stream, this could take it right toward the East Coast of the United States 10 to 14 days from now.

05:46Now, if it misses this connection, it goes into Central America. But I'm telling you, if this

05:51survives, look out from Florida along the East Coast. And that's the feed.

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