Tracking a tropical wave, the "one to watch"

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.

Transcript

00:00We have a new tropical storm in the Atlantic, but on the forecast feed, it's a tropical

00:05wave coming off Africa.

00:07The first wave, I can tell you this, I'm not saying it's coming to the United States,

00:13but I can tell you that it won't.

00:15And that's a tropical wave we talked about last week on the feed.

00:18We will talk about that in a second.

00:20Let me show you the satellite picture here this morning in the Atlantic.

00:24There it is.

00:25This is Lorenzo, more on that in a second.

00:27This is our tropical wave.

00:29One thing to notice, this is 15 degrees north right here, and this is 10 degrees north.

00:38Look how far south this is.

00:39This is very far south.

00:41All of these systems that have been coming off Africa have been coming in around 15 degrees

00:46north, and all of them, lately, including Lorenzo, have done what?

00:50Curved out the sea.

00:51What is Lorenzo going to do?

00:54It's going to curve out the sea.

00:56Take a look at the AccuWeather iPad with this.

00:58Now, listen, you've got to keep an eye on these systems because it's going to do a loop-de-loop.

01:03Maybe it can come back, but right now, the AccuWeather forecast shows that this will likely

01:07dissipate by Monday.

01:09Listen, we're going to keep an eye on it, but just to let you know how far east this is going

01:13to be, here's Bermuda, here's the east coast of the United States.

01:16So it's a storm that we're going to keep an eye on, but it's not a storm that certainly we're

01:20worried about in the short term.

01:23This is the system we're going to keep an eye on here.

01:27It's this tropical wave coming off Africa.

01:30And again, this one's a little different than its predecessors because it's so far south.

01:35And as I mentioned, it is so far south that I'm worried it can get into the Caribbean.

01:40Now, it's got some challenges to overcome this week, and there is certainly a possibility

01:46that it's so far south and it runs into a little bit of wind shear that it could be ripped

01:51apart.

01:52That's why when you look at the AccuWeather outlook for this storm, take a look at it.

01:58We just have a low probability.

02:00That's through the 18th.

02:01So that is, as we head toward the weekend, it continues to move northward.

02:07I would not look for much of anything here, at least over the next couple of days.

02:12So the question is, will this develop or not?

02:16Well, what do we look for when we're looking for development?

02:19We look for three factors.

02:20Warm water, we got that.

02:21That's not a concern.

02:23Is there any dry air that would limit this system's ability to organize?

02:30Well, take a look at the water vapor loop here this morning.

02:33The answer is no.

02:35Let me put this into motion.

02:36So here's the tropical wave that we're tracking right in here.

02:39You see, look at this envelope.

02:41This whole envelope, almost all the way toward the islands, which are way over here, there's

02:47moisture.

02:48So there's not dry air that's going to limit it.

02:51I think the problem is, is why it's not going to develop much this week is it's going to stay

02:56so far south.

02:56Systems that stay south of 15 degrees north, down to or 10 degrees north, typically do not

03:03develop here.

03:03It's not going to be until later on in the week when it gains a little latitude.

03:08That's when we could see some development here.

03:11So what I want to do is I want to track this using the tools that I use on an everyday basis.

03:17I want to show you why I'm thinking what I'm thinking, and I'm thinking that this could

03:23be a problem, that this could be a system that gets into the Caribbean.

03:27Let me show you what I mean here.

03:28Let me put you in the double box here, and we'll start tomorrow evening so you can see

03:34where this wave is located.

03:36Here it is.

03:36Now, I'm going to use the European model, but I'll show you the American model.

03:39You see all this red?

03:41This is it.

03:41Look how far south it is.

03:43Let's track it here.

03:44That's Wednesday evening.

03:46Here it is.

03:47Now, we'll continue to track it.

03:49Where is it Friday evening?

03:51It's right in here.

03:53It's right in here.

03:54Now, you'll notice it has now moved a little farther north, but it's right in here.

03:59And then as we track it in the Saturday, it's right here, north of South America.

04:05And then as we get into Sunday, where is it?

04:08It's east of the island.

04:10So it takes a track in here.

04:12What does the wind shear look like in those areas?

04:16Let's start it off on Tuesday.

04:18Notice in here, you're going to see a continual area of light wind shear in this area.

04:23That's Tuesday evening.

04:24How about Wednesday evening?

04:25This is winds at around 40,000 feet.

04:26All your wind shear is up in here with the darker colors.

04:29You see the whites and the light blues?

04:31This is all light wind shear.

04:33So the only reason that this isn't developing, it's so far south.

04:37Look at the wind shear on Friday.

04:39It's right in this area, low wind shear.

04:41Let's go to Saturday.

04:43There's the system here, right here.

04:46Let's take you to Sunday.

04:48Where's the system?

04:49Let's say Monday morning, approaching the Windward Islands.

04:54What does the wind shear look like in there?

04:56It's light.

04:57And then you'll notice when you look in the Caribbean, what do you see in here?

05:02White, light colors means low wind shear.

05:05Now, okay, assuming it survives, assuming it survives, it certainly looks as though it's

05:12going to be getting into the Caribbean.

05:15The question is, is where is it going?

05:17What I want to show you are two possibilities here.

05:20I want to show you the American model and I want to show you the European model.

05:24Let's begin Tuesday evening.

05:25This is the American model that has it awfully far south, near Trinidad and Tobago.

05:31What does the American model do?

05:33The European model has it in the central Gulf, in the central Caribbean.

05:37You see it right here.

05:38So the American model has it down here.

05:41The European has it here.

05:43But here's the important point.

05:45Both of them survive it and put it into the Caribbean.

05:49Why are we so concerned about the Caribbean?

05:54Really quickly, look at the water temperatures here.

05:57These are the anomalies.

05:59I mean, not only is it warm water, these anomalies compared to historical average are three to

06:04four degrees above historical average.

06:06So the water here is up middle to upper 80s.

06:09That is exceptionally warm water.

06:11Now, the question is, is where does it go?

06:13If it gets in the Caribbean and if it survives, where does it go?

06:17It will all depend on this, this dip in the jet stream right here.

06:21Now, the European model says this is too far to the north.

06:25And what happens is, is this system just goes on its merry way and it becomes a major hurricane,

06:31a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

06:33The American model suggests this dip in the jet stream is strong enough.

06:37What does it do with it?

06:38Watch the Red Pool north where you see into the Atlantic and out, which is right.

06:43I'm not sure yet.

06:44But on the feed, we want to let you know, this is the wave to watch and we will.

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