Storms and rumors of storms in the Atlantic

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics.

Transcript

00:00Been a busy week in the tropics, two named storms, Jerry and Karen, and I'll tell you what,

00:06I think there's the potential of two more as we head into next week here. All right,

00:12I want to show you though, this is what we're looking at here as far as the named storms

00:16so far this season. And then here's the next two, Lorenzo and our very own Melissa. And as I

00:24mentioned, there's a possibility that we can get to next week. Now, I don't think it's with this

00:30system though. This is our tropical wave coming off Africa right now. Looks pretty robust, doesn't it?

00:35As you have an area of rain and thunderstorms associated with it. However, moving forward,

00:41I do not believe this system has a pathway to the United States and I don't think it's going to

00:46develop. Now, this is what the modeling looks like on Saturday morning. Here it is. You see all this

00:51yellow and orange. That's energy here. That's the tropical wave. Watch as we move forward here.

00:58This is Sunday morning. How about into Tuesday morning? Here it is back in here in the central

01:04Atlantic, right in here. However, however, look at the wind shear it's going to be going through here.

01:10This is our wind shear product. Wherever you see the yellows and the reds, that's wind shear.

01:14So this system is going to be followed by wind shear along its path in the central Atlantic.

01:21Here it goes. Watch. Let's do it again. There it is. There it is. There it is. There it is. Now,

01:26there it is Tuesday morning. Here it is Wednesday. The other thing you see, not only do you have wind

01:32shear, but you see what's happening? It's being forced to the north by this dip in the jet stream.

01:37So as I said, I don't think this system will develop. There's too much wind shear. And also,

01:43and also the other problem is, is that it is going to be dogged by wind shear. So small chance of

01:50development, even if it would develop, I don't think it'll have any pathway to the United States.

01:56However, we're not done as we head into next week. There's going to be this tropical wave. Let me

02:02show it to you moving forward. This is a tropical wave that's coming off the west coast of Africa

02:07as we head into Monday. Here it comes right here. Here it is by Wednesday. Let me show you to it. It's

02:12right in here. All right. Now, this tropical wave, if it stays south of 15 degrees north,

02:20there's less wind shear right now. It's going to move eastward, move eastward. And then by the time

02:25we get into the next weekend, it's going to be right around in here. What does the wind shear look

02:30like? There is some wind shear next weekend, right in here across the, across the island. See that

02:37little area of green and it's coming in from the west. Now, if it could survive this wind shear

02:42and get into this area, then we're going to have some problems next week. Because as we get in the

02:49next week, Monday into Tuesday, look at this. There's virtually no wind shear by the time we get

02:56into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. So if of the following week, not this week, but the following

03:02week, we're talking about October 21st. So if this tropical wave can survive the wind shear and get

03:07into the Caribbean, we're going to have some problems here. So I do think that this is the one

03:13to watch moving forward from the Atlantic here as we head in the next week, right? If this stays south

03:21of 15 degrees north, it stays south of the wind shear, it gets into the Caribbean, then we could be

03:26looking at something here. Now, the Caribbean is something we're still worried about. Look at these

03:31water temperatures as we head into the Caribbean. You're looking at water temperatures. These are

03:37the anomalies of three to four degrees above historical average. So that puts these water

03:42temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. One thing quickly. Barry, what's our time?

03:4930 seconds. All right. One thing I'm worried about next week. Let's see if I can show you this quickly

03:54here. You've got this dip in the jet stream next week, right in the year. You see this on Sunday.

04:01A piece of this is going to break off. You see this right in here. See that area across the Bay of

04:08Campeche that breaks off right there. Let's keep an eye on that. We know water temperatures are warm

04:15and I'd keep an eye on the southern Gulf middle part of next week. Possibility of two storms.

04:22That's the story on the feed.

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