00:00All right, we're tracking a ghost, a tropical wave in the Atlantic. This is the one to watch. I say it's a ghost because don't expect any development out of this system for at least a week, if not 10 days, and it may not survive the Atlantic, but if it does, we're going to have some major problems here.
00:19And let me show you where it is right now and also want to show you this. We do have Tropical Storm Lorenzo. This is going to get, see this dip in the jet stream? This is going to pull this system out and around. We'll have no impact on Bermuda or the United States. It'll probably do a loop and then dissipate.
00:36This is the tropical wave to watch moving forward here. Let me give you a zoom in and there it is right now. Now you'll notice it is very far south. I mean, this is 15 degrees north. This is 10 degrees north. This is awfully far south. Oftentimes these tropical waves this far south don't develop. They need to be a little farther north. I will say this. It's very robust right now.
01:01There's a large area of showers and thunderstorms with it. And there's not a lot of wind shearing. There's not a lot of dry air. You'll notice, though, on the AccuWeather path for this, we do not have any development with this system until next week, the early next week. Maybe, maybe some development here.
01:23But the problem is this. If this can survive and get into the Caribbean, we have some major problems with this system. And, you know, we've been showing you this map all the time here. And here's why. Take a look at this moving forward here. You've got lots of warm water right here. Let me go back. This is what I want to show you.
01:46You've got lots of warm water in the Caribbean right now. I mean, you're looking at, these are the anomalies. And you're looking at water temperatures like three or four degrees above the historical average. That's middle to upper 80s.
01:58That is very warm water. The question is, will this system survive into the Caribbean? If it does, we could be looking at some major problems here.
02:08So I want to look at the modeling. We always do that. I want to take you to tomorrow morning here. We're going to look at the American and the European model. This is the European model. This is the American model. There's the tropical wave on the American model. You see that? The yellows and the greens. That's what it looks like on the American model. The European model is already weakening this system. You can barely see it. It's right here.
02:31Let's take you to Friday evening. This is the American model right in here. Still awfully far south. The European model, barely, but very weak. Again, I think this is having trouble developing because it's so far south. Usually you need it a little farther north.
02:50Now, let's take you to Saturday evening. Here's the American model, more robust. How do you know that? You see more reds, yellows, and oranges. Here's the American model right here. Very weak. We get in the Sunday. Here's the European model. Very weak system. And if this is the case, and it's this far south, it'll be interacting with South America. And I doubt there'd be anything left for a time.
03:17Here's the American model. Also far south, but it still keeps it a little robust. Now, here's where it gets interesting. As we get into Tuesday morning, the European model has it continuing along the coast of South America. That means it's too far south. It would not develop. The European-American model, a little farther north, and watch what the American model does. Develops it into a hurricane as we get into Wednesday and Thursday.
03:44The European model, nope, keeps it around, keeps it going, keeps it going. Here it is as we head into Thursday. It's across Central America. Watch what it does, though. It brings it up and around right in here into the Gulf as a very weak system by the time we get into the following weekend on the 26th.
04:05The American model takes a hurricane. The American model takes a hurricane all the way into Hispaniola. So a lot to digest with that. I want to sum it up for you here. This is a little snapshot of what we think is going to happen with this system moving forward.
04:19Don't look for anything to organize this week. Now, this weekend, if it gets a little farther north, it could organize. I'm starting to think it won't.
04:27If it survives and gets into the Caribbean, it has a chance, but if it's too far south, I think it would weaken. But if it gets a little farther north, then I think it could be into a hurricane.
04:38Where would it go? This dip in the jet stream. As we get into late next week, we'll decide whether it gets into the Atlantic or stays into the Caribbean. We're tracking a ghost here on The Feed.
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