00:00History tells us that right now in the Atlantic Basin, we should be tracking at least one
00:05hurricane or at least a tropical storm, but right now it is dead quiet. Look at the Atlantic Basin
00:12right now. Look at that area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. We call that area the main
00:19development region. That's where tropical waves come off Africa and generally develop into tropical
00:24storms and hurricanes. Right now, it is as clean as you see it this time of the year.
00:29What's going on? Well, water temperatures are plenty warm enough, but the other two ingredients,
00:36sufficient moisture and low wind shear, those ingredients are very hostile for development
00:43here. First of all, take a look at the water vapor loop. Look at all of the dry air denoted
00:47by the
00:47yellow shading between Africa and, in fact, all the way toward the Caribbean. So dry air is going to
00:53prevent development. And then when you look at the wind shear denoted by the dark purple, that too
00:59covers all of the Atlantic Basin, except for where? Off the southwest coast of Florida and in the Gulf.
01:06And while we don't see anything developing in that MDR, that main development region between the
01:11Lesser Antilles and Africa, at least for the next week, we are going to watch that area in the Gulf
01:18and Southwest Atlantic as we get toward the 16th and 17th of September. But until then, it's quiet.
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