00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office Week Ahead forecast.
00:03It's often at this time of year that we see what has been termed a return of the westerlies,
00:07in other words, a return of more of an Atlantic influence on the UK's weather, a pick up
00:12in the strength of the jet stream following a lull in activity that we often see during
00:17the spring and the first part of June.
00:21Generally at this time of year, temperature contrasts across the normal hemisphere begin
00:25to increase again and that tends to fuel a stronger jet stream.
00:29I'm going to be talking about the jet stream a fair bit over the next few days.
00:33Indeed it is the westerly winds that have swept away the heat that peaked on Saturday in Surrey,
00:3933 Celsius, widely low 30s across many southern and eastern parts of the country, culminating
00:45in quite extensive thunderstorms, frequent lightning and hail across parts of northern England and
00:51southern Scotland.
00:52Nevertheless, cooler air now in place as we start the week and we keep that cooler air
00:57for Monday night.
00:58But as we begin Tuesday, a sign of something a little more humid returning with this warm
01:04front moving into western parts of the country by dawn, bringing extensive cloud cover and
01:10outbreaks of persistent rain across parts of Scotland, northern England, Wales, the southwest
01:14and Northern Ireland.
01:16The rain during the morning tend to fizzle.
01:18It's always going to be wettest over western hills, drier towards the south and east and brightening up slowly into the afternoon.
01:26Some sunshine reappearing through south and east Wales, the middle is east, Anglia and the south.
01:30Some brightness there for Northern Scotland as well, albeit with some showers.
01:34Feeling cool in the north but warmer and more humid to the south and the dividing line between the more
01:40cold front.
01:42And really that sets the scene for the rest of the week.
01:44We're going to see this north-south contrast staying cool and changeable in the north.
01:50Often more humid towards the south with some sunshine at times.
01:54And this dividing line will ebb and flow north to south across the country because that's where the jet stream will be sitting.
02:02On Wednesday we start the day with some sunshine in the far south-east and across parts of Scotland and northern England.
02:08But a few showers here and there.
02:10More extensive cloud through Wales and the Midlands.
02:12Some outbreaks of rain during the morning easing into the afternoon.
02:15And look at the temperature contrast.
02:17Again, high teens, low 20s in the north but 27, 28 Celsius towards the south-east.
02:21And feeling very humid once again.
02:23And that high humidity could lead to the development of some thunderstorms across northern France drifting towards south-east England.
02:30The exact track of these thunderstorms on Wednesday evening, early hours of Thursday, open to doubt at the moment.
02:37There's every chance that they will hit the south-east of England and bring some impacts.
02:43But if they just go in slightly more of an east direction then they'll miss south-east England entirely.
02:49So that's something we're going to be keeping a track of over the next couple of days.
02:52And we'll keep you updated.
02:53Elsewhere across the UK we've got some weather fronts moving through overnight, bringing some showery rain.
02:58And more of a brisk westerly airflow by the start of Thursday.
03:03But those outbreaks of rain and the early showers move through.
03:07It brightens up nicely by late morning and into the afternoon.
03:11Some sunny spells.
03:12And it's going to feel a little cooler once again.
03:15Certainly we'll notice an uptick in the winds and could affect some of the set-up for Glastonbury.
03:21But otherwise it's going to be a cooler day with temperatures back to the low to mid-twenties.
03:28Now, on the other side of the Atlantic, meanwhile, over North America, this is Tuesday, we've got this developing jet stream.
03:35We're really picking up strength across North America.
03:38And subtle differences in how this develops during Tuesday and Wednesday will impact our weather for the rest of the week.
03:44But it looks likely that an unseasonably strong jet stream will develop across the North Atlantic and head towards the UK for the end of the week.
03:52And that's going to bring that strengthening of the wind that I mentioned on Thursday and into Friday.
03:57We keep those keen breezes from the west.
04:00It's also going to bring outbreaks of rain predominantly as we start off Friday across Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest England and parts of Wales.
04:09Dryer to the south on the other side of the jet stream.
04:13And throughout the day on Friday, I suspect that there will be some brightness to be had across eastern and southern parts of the UK.
04:20But it looks likely that we're going to see what's going to be quite cool, I suspect, where we get those outbreaks of rain across Western Scotland and Northwest England.
04:31High teens, low 20s, towards the south and southeast, feeling quite humid once again, 24, 25 Celsius drying up there across the southwest for Glastonbury, Worthy Farm.
04:44And warming up as we go into the weekend across many southern parts of the UK at least.
04:50We've got this ridge of high pressure trying to nudge in from the south, pushing the jet stream further north for a time.
04:56And in fact, allowing the jet stream to take more of a southwesterly path.
05:00And that would import higher humidities and higher temperatures into southern areas whilst it stays cool and changeable further north.
05:08So that's how things are looking into the weekend.
05:10There's every possibility that that high pressure will become more widespread later in the weekend and early next week
05:17to bring perhaps another short-lived hot spell, particularly towards the southeast.
05:22But it probably won't last long because the jet stream always wanting to return to the UK shores.
05:28And that looks more likely than not for the rest of next week.
05:32We'll keep you updated, of course, right here at the Met Office.
05:34Follow those updates on YouTube. Bye-bye.
05:36See you on YouTube. Bye-bye.
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