Week Ahead 05/01/2026 – Rain, wind and snow for some - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 05/01/2026. With Arctic air surrounding the UK, Atlantic-driven weather tries to make a comeback this week - several times. This will result in a messy mix of rain, wind, snow and ice in many places. Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.

Transcript

00:00Hi there, welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.

00:03It's certainly been an interesting week so far with scenes like this for some, for many

00:09it's a case of crisp winter sunshine dominating proceedings for the first week or so of January

00:17as Arctic air surrounds the UK and it stays that way as we start the upcoming week.

00:24But the more typical Atlantic driven weather that we often see during the autumn and the

00:30winter in the UK, well that's going to make three attempted comebacks this week and as

00:36it clashes with the existing Arctic air, there'll be some interesting weather to talk about in

00:41the next few minutes.

00:42But we start the week as I say with Arctic air, that means there'll be some slippery surfaces

00:46across northern, eastern, western parts of the UK as we start Tuesday following showers

00:51on Monday and Monday night. But then the first attempted comeback from the Atlantic begins

00:57to show its hand and that is an occluding weather front that starts to move in from the northwest

01:03on Tuesday morning. Now ahead of that, widely bright, yes, but a frosty start and like I

01:11say some icy surfaces to watch out for first thing. But we soon see the cloud and rain arrive

01:17into Scotland, turning to snow in many parts of Scotland and then northern England during

01:22Tuesday as it bumps into that cold air. Now we're talking about a patchy one to five centimetres

01:27of snow for northern England and Scotland, but significantly more over higher parts and

01:32in some lower parts, 10 to 15 centimetres where the cold air is more stubborn to clear away.

01:39So we're talking about central and eastern Scotland predominantly for that, perhaps parts

01:43of northeast England. The front though, responsible, continues its journey southeastwards during

01:49Tuesday night this is, and mostly this is rain and hill snow, but it could lead to a few flakes

01:55of lower level snow across parts of eastern England during the hours of darkness Tuesday night

02:01into the start of Wednesday. So that's another watch area, that's a couple of centimetres could result

02:08in some small disruption across East Anglia and northeast England during Wednesday morning.

02:16Cold air comes south again behind that system as we start off Wednesday with once more icy patches

02:23about, but just jumping back to Tuesday afternoon ahead of the system, there'll be plenty of dry weather

02:30across the Midlands, the east and southeast of England, sunny spells and feeling cold,

02:34whilst the cloud, rain and hill snow continues in the north and west. Now we clear that through

02:40by the start of Wednesday, and Wednesday begins again with some icy patches, a widespread frost,

02:46that cold feel as Arctic air returns southwards following that first attempted comeback of the Atlantic.

02:54And with that Arctic air in place on Wednesday, there'll be further sleet and snow showers,

02:58particularly this time north sea coastal areas, perhaps northern Scotland once again, but

03:03brighter and drier further west, at least for now. But on Wednesday, whilst Arctic air surrounds the UK,

03:13interesting things are happening in the Atlantic. The Atlantic jet stream starts to power up and it's

03:20likely to deepen an area of low pressure and send it towards the UK. This low will contain much milder air,

03:27it will also contain a lot of rain and wind, but it will bump into the cold air in place across the UK,

03:35so things are likely to turn very interesting later Thursday as a result. Now the start of Thursday,

03:43ahead of that low, well, begins once again with widespread frost, some slippery surfaces around,

03:49but plenty of dry and bright weather, some decent sunny spells, particularly towards the east. Through the

03:54day on Thursday, we're likely to see the cloud increase from the west, the wind pick up as this

03:59Atlantic low approaches and it's going to send its rain in from the southwest as the day gets going.

04:06Before that though, eastern areas staying mostly dry and bright with temperatures once more below average

04:13for the time of year, two to four Celsius typically. But it's at this point that a lot of uncertainty emerges

04:22to do with the track of the Atlantic low itself. And to demonstrate this uncertainty, I'd like to show

04:30two different weather simulations from the Met Office model and one of the runs of the European

04:36model. We don't just run these supercomputers once, we run them lots of times to account for chaos theory,

04:42the idea that a subtle change at the start of a forecast can lead to big differences by the end of

04:46the forecast. And at first, 1am Thursday, these computer simulations look the same. We've got

04:53the developing area of low pressure in the Atlantic in roughly the same place for both of them, slightly

04:57different shape, slightly different latitude, slightly different timings. But watch how these

05:04differences start to emerge as we go through Thursday and as the low approaches the UK. This is

05:08the Met Office model. It sends the low on a track through parts of North Wales into the North Midlands.

05:14Whilst this particular simulation from the European model sends it on a much further south track

05:21across northern France. Actually, in the grand scheme of things, there's not much difference between the

05:25tracks and timings of this area of low pressure, a few hundred miles. But that makes a big difference

05:30in terms of the impacts of the weather where you happen to live. And that's because, if we take a look

05:37at the summary of all these different tracks, like I say, not much of a difference. But there's a very big

05:45difference in terms of the weather impacts either side of this area of low pressure. Now, the bottom

05:53graphic that I just showed is one of the furthest south simulations and that's that line there along northern France.

06:01Whilst the Met Office simulation follows a track close to this run of the European model much further north.

06:08In reality, most of the tracks are somewhere in between. Not much difference in terms of the latitude

06:16of these areas of low pressure, but a big difference in the consequences. This is the Met Office track.

06:25It takes a more northerly track and it's considered the least likely because it doesn't have as much

06:30support from other computer model simulations. But what it would do is it would lead to widespread

06:36disruptive wind and rain across many parts of England, Wales, perhaps into southern Scotland

06:42and Northern Ireland with some areas, Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland, parts of the Pennines into

06:48the North Midlands, higher parts of Wales seeing disruptive snow. This is a 20% chance.

06:54But slightly more likely is this Northern France track and this would lead to much of the wind and

07:03rain disruption being taken into Northern France whilst its southern counties of England seeing the

07:08risk of disruption from snow, especially higher parts of Southern England. What's more likely is

07:13something in between a 50% chance of this happening. Wind and rain for southern parts of the UK, central

07:20areas seeing the risk of disruption from snow. So three scenarios there, depending on the track of

07:28the low and the associated impacts from snow, which will be on the northern flank of the low,

07:35wind and rain on the southern flank. Either way, that low is moving away during Friday and into Saturday.

07:41So Friday is an improving picture through the day. Whatever resulting weather we get, it's clearing away.

07:48Arctic air then returns across the country for the start of Saturday. Saturday starts dry, bright,

07:54frosty, icy patches and so on. But the third comeback from the Atlantic weather takes place on Saturday and

08:03this much larger area of low pressure, much more dominant across the Atlantic and taking a more

08:09northerly track begins to move in. Could be a few flakes of snow on the northern and eastern

08:15flank of this low as it moves into the UK. But mostly this is going to replace the Arctic air

08:22with wind and rain and much milder weather by the end of the weekend. So three attempted comebacks from

08:29the Atlantic, three areas of low pressure to watch out for this week with snow in places. But a lot of

08:35uncertainty about that midweek event and we'll keep you posted right here on the Met Office website and

08:41YouTube channel. Bye bye.

Week Ahead 05/01/2026 – Rain, wind and snow for some

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