00:00Hi there and welcome to the MetalVis forecast for the week ahead.
00:05And yes, in this forecast I am going to be talking about more rain to come in the next few days.
00:11But before you get too down in the dumps about it, if you are sick of all the wet weather,
00:16particularly in western parts of the UK, there are signs of a significant change on the way
00:22for the week of Christmas. More on that in a moment.
00:27However, it has been a wet start to December.
00:30The first half of the month, exceptionally wet in some places, particularly the last 48 hours.
00:35This shows 48 hours worth of rain falling across the UK.
00:39Midday, Saturday to midday, Monday.
00:41You can see a lot of wet weather into western parts of the country,
00:45particularly West Wales, Western Scotland, as well as northwest England.
00:49Cumbria, seeing 360mm of rainfall.
00:53That's Honister Pass in Cumbria.
00:55Other sites in Cumbria, more than 200mm.
00:58North Wales, more than 100mm.
01:00Likewise, for the Isle of Skye.
01:02The weather front that brought that rain has been stuck over northwestern parts of the country.
01:08Hardly any rain through the weekend in the south and the east.
01:11But the front's now clearing southeastwards and it will bring a few drops of rain early Tuesday.
01:18However, it's fizzling away.
01:19It's nowhere near as active as it has been over the weekend.
01:22So, a few drops of rain, for example, in the southeast.
01:25And East Anglia, some remaining cloud.
01:27That gets out of the way to sunny spells elsewhere for the UK on Tuesday.
01:33A much brighter day and plenty of sunshine for western and northern England.
01:37In Wales, the south of Scotland, northern Ireland.
01:41Frequent showers arriving to the west of Scotland with some thunder in places.
01:44A gusty wind as well.
01:46Feeling fresh here with temperatures of 6 or 7 Celsius.
01:49Further south and east, 9 or 10 Celsius.
01:53Then we go into Wednesday with that ridge of high pressure holding on for a time, at least, in the east.
01:59But the next weather system is already starting to move in.
02:03Isobars tightening up.
02:05So, it's another wet and windy weather day with the northwest of the country seeing the rain initially.
02:11The wind picking up.
02:13Towards the southeast, some dense fog in places.
02:17That's slow to clear during the morning.
02:19A touch of frost as well.
02:20But brighter skies to come.
02:22East Anglia in the southeast staying dry into the afternoon.
02:25Elsewhere, it's simply increasingly wet.
02:28And whilst the heaviest rain during the morning will be in the northwest,
02:31it will be wettest during the afternoon in Wales and the southwest with a yellow warning in place.
02:36Because that rain is slowing down once again.
02:40And for the start of Thursday, more wet weather starts to move back in again after it dries up for a few hours.
02:48That heavy rain returning to the south and southwest.
02:51Wales moving into the Midlands by lunchtime.
02:54The east of England then as the day goes on.
02:57Showers following.
02:58Some heavy downpours.
02:59Thunder in places.
03:00Gusty winds as well.
03:02Some brighter skies into the northwest.
03:06But it's another blustery day on Friday.
03:08Across Scotland, Northern Ireland, North and West England as well as Wales.
03:12Further showers in places.
03:14The central and southeastern parts of the UK avoiding the showers.
03:19Plenty of sunshine.
03:20Feeling fresh.
03:217 to 11 Celsius.
03:23Then another weather system arrives for the start of the weekend.
03:27Low pressure once again in charge.
03:29Tightly packed isobars.
03:31But the strong winds that accompany the rain this time pushing the rain through.
03:36So it's not going to last as long.
03:39A couple of hours of wet weather followed by frequent showers.
03:42And if you're thinking, blimey, it's more of the same over the next few days.
03:47Yes, that is true.
03:49However, looking out to the west by the weekend, and there are no more low pressure systems following.
03:57In fact, there's a big area of high pressure.
03:59And the signs now are all pointing to that higher pressure being closer to the UK from around the 22nd of December.
04:09What's this probability plot showing?
04:12Well, this simply shows the likelihood of different weather patterns each day out to Sunday the 28th of December.
04:18The various weather patterns are coloured up with these different shades of blue and red and orange and yellow and so forth.
04:24The blues generally represent where low pressure is closer to the UK.
04:28The oranges and reds represent where we expect higher pressure closer to the UK.
04:33There are different flavours of low pressure and high pressure depending on where they are sitting.
04:36But, as you can see, through the second half of this week into the weekend, it's these dark blues that are dominating.
04:44They are the most likely weather patterns westerly dominated.
04:46In other words, unsettled with Atlantic westerlies.
04:50But, by the time we get to the 22nd of December, for example, the dark blues get replaced by dark reds, which represents high pressure to the north.
05:02A weather pattern in which things are likely to settle down generally across the UK, with clear skies perhaps at night leading to frost and fog patches.
05:13You wouldn't completely rule out rain because, with high pressure to the north, there's always the possibility of lower pressure to the south and southwest.
05:22That could throw up some rain or showers, particularly towards the southwest.
05:25But, with higher pressure closer to the UK, fewer Atlantic lows in the forecast, fewer bouts of wet and windy weather, and winds being not so mild,
05:37it looks likely that for Christmas Day itself, it's going to be drier and perhaps a little bit colder compared with the first half of December.
05:47And I suspect even if it's not a white Christmas, well, a Christmas with frost and less rain might be welcome for many of us.
05:57Bye-bye.
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