00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.
00:03A week of significant temperature contrasts from the exceptionally mild south to the north
00:09where it's going to turn colder eventually.
00:12But actually we start off mild across all parts with low pressure again coming at us
00:17from the south west and this moist and mild air flow bringing weather fronts in from the
00:23Atlantic and some wet weather from the word go across western parts of the UK.
00:28There's bands of rain pushing through northern England into southern and central Scotland
00:31and Northern Ireland by the afternoon.
00:34Drier for a time across much of England and Wales before another spell of wet weather pushes
00:37back into Wales in the south west.
00:40Mostly dry for East Anglia in the south east even if it is going to be largely cloudy.
00:46Clear spells in the far north of Scotland.
00:48A little bit fresher here, ten degrees, one or two showers, but that's the place where
00:52we'll see the brightest skies.
00:54The rain in the west is going to mount up.
00:56We're going to see the wettest weather over the hills of south Wales, south-west England,
01:00south-west Scotland.
01:0160 millimetres in some places, perhaps up to 80 over the hills of south Wales and south-west
01:07England.
01:07Could cause some issues.
01:08Rain warnings in force.
01:10All that accompanied by a strong wind, 50 mile per hour gusts or more for some exposed
01:14south-western coasts.
01:15But it's a mild wind, 15 Celsius in the south.
01:19And that mild air stays with us in the south at least throughout much of this week.
01:24Those temperatures not dropping very far by night either, staying in the teens in places,
01:29because we've got this south-westly airflow just carrying on throughout the next few days,
01:35whilst it starts to change in terms of the wind direction further north.
01:39High pressure builds in across Greenland and Iceland, and that's going to push
01:45these fronts through and eventually bring colder air.
01:49But for Wednesday itself, we've got two weather fronts lying across the UK.
01:53One stalled across the north of Scotland and one lingering across the south-east and in fact
01:59pushing further rain back in by the end of the day across many southern parts.
02:03So a gap in between, some decent sunny spells for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland,
02:07Northern England, North Wales.
02:08But either side of that, some wet weather.
02:10Heavy rain continuing across the north of Scotland, Orkney, but clearing across Shetland later on.
02:16And then it turns colder in the far north.
02:18Meanwhile, this band of rain continues across the southern third of the UK.
02:23Again, heavy and persistent over western and south-western hills, especially Dartmoor.
02:28Now that's going to push through, but by this stage, with high pressure building over Iceland,
02:33we're going to see the winds change significantly across the north of Scotland.
02:36And you can see the temperature contrast.
02:38Sutherlies in the south bringing exceptionally mild air both by day and by night,
02:42whilst in the north a significant drop in temperatures through Thursday and lasting into the weekend.
02:49And that contrast, well that's causing a weather front in the middle to bring some heavy rain.
02:56A little bit of uncertainty, increasingly so during Thursday and Friday, about the placement
02:59of that boundary and the heaviest rain.
03:02But as you can see, it's going to mostly affect Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland,
03:06the central swathe of Northern England, the Midlands and Wales.
03:09Drier to the south, but very mild, 16-17 Celsius.
03:13To the north, it is turning colder across Northern Scotland.
03:16Some of these showers will be falling as sleet and snow over the tops of the mountains.
03:20Hail at lower levels and feeling cold in the wind,
03:24even if the skies are a lot brighter compared with further south.
03:27Now those outbreaks of rain across the middle, well they'll shift position later this week.
03:32But the boundary is uncertain between the cold air in the north and the very mild air to the south.
03:38And to illustrate this, here's the temperature trend for Southampton,
03:42not just from one computer model simulation, but from 51, the European model ensemble.
03:48Now, as you can see, where these model simulations are bunched together,
03:53it is a darker shading where they are spread out.
03:57A lot more uncertainty in terms of the temperature,
04:00and it's difficult to say for sure what the temperature will be.
04:03But we can, from this graph, deduce a few things.
04:07Firstly, this week is very mild.
04:10From Tuesday afternoon through to Friday,
04:12the temperatures barely dip below 14 Celsius both by day and by night in the south of England.
04:18Then, most of the models do drop things off into the weekend.
04:22You can see this shading here.
04:24But not all the models, about a third of them, also keep things mild.
04:29So there's the uncertainty, most likely turning colder into the weekend,
04:33back to mid to high single figures by and large.
04:36But not necessarily certain for that because there are some models that keep it mild.
04:42More on why that's happening in a moment.
04:44Inverness shows a very different temperature trend.
04:46Yes, it starts off relatively mild, but not as mild as Southampton.
04:52Then we've got this temperature drop,
04:54and much more confidence about the temperature drop occurring during Thursday.
04:58And this extreme contrast between north and south of the UK for Thursday and Friday.
05:05And greater confidence that it's going to stay cold in Inverness, in the north of Scotland,
05:10through the weekend and into the start of next week.
05:12So, big temperature contrasts by Friday.
05:16And in between that mild air to the south and the colder air further north,
05:21we do have the band of rain.
05:22Like I say, some uncertainty about its placement at this stage.
05:26But it looks likely that Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England will be cold,
05:29albeit bright, with some wintry showers over the hills of Northern Scotland.
05:34But otherwise, plenty of sunny spells, so cold and crisp after a frosty start.
05:38Further south, 15, 16 Celsius, possibly even higher if that front's a little further north.
05:44It could be 17 or 18 Celsius in the south on Friday.
05:47That's what I mean by these significant temperature contrasts.
05:50And as we go into the weekend, what looks most likely is that the high pressure to the north
05:56will elbow its way further south and lead to colder but brighter weather across most parts.
06:04However, there is that question mark over the far south and south west.
06:08It may well stay cloudy, damp and much milder here,
06:13depending on the placement of this low and this high.
06:16So, the weekend for many looks brighter.
06:19Overnight frosts, but sunny spells by day, and plenty of dry weather.
06:24But, also colder in the south, especially the far south and south west,
06:29it may well stay mild and damp.
06:31That's the source of uncertainty at the moment.
06:34But, of course, we'll keep you updated on how that develops over the next few days.
06:38Bye-bye.
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