Week Ahead 10/11/2025 – Very mild south, turning colder north - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 10/11/2025. Significant temperature contrasts are likely later this week as it stays exceptionally mild in the south whilst it turns colder in the north. Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern

Transcript

00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.

00:03A week of significant temperature contrasts from the exceptionally mild south to the north

00:09where it's going to turn colder eventually.

00:12But actually we start off mild across all parts with low pressure again coming at us

00:17from the south west and this moist and mild air flow bringing weather fronts in from the

00:23Atlantic and some wet weather from the word go across western parts of the UK.

00:28There's bands of rain pushing through northern England into southern and central Scotland

00:31and Northern Ireland by the afternoon.

00:34Drier for a time across much of England and Wales before another spell of wet weather pushes

00:37back into Wales in the south west.

00:40Mostly dry for East Anglia in the south east even if it is going to be largely cloudy.

00:46Clear spells in the far north of Scotland.

00:48A little bit fresher here, ten degrees, one or two showers, but that's the place where

00:52we'll see the brightest skies.

00:54The rain in the west is going to mount up.

00:56We're going to see the wettest weather over the hills of south Wales, south-west England,

01:00south-west Scotland.

01:0160 millimetres in some places, perhaps up to 80 over the hills of south Wales and south-west

01:07England.

01:07Could cause some issues.

01:08Rain warnings in force.

01:10All that accompanied by a strong wind, 50 mile per hour gusts or more for some exposed

01:14south-western coasts.

01:15But it's a mild wind, 15 Celsius in the south.

01:19And that mild air stays with us in the south at least throughout much of this week.

01:24Those temperatures not dropping very far by night either, staying in the teens in places,

01:29because we've got this south-westly airflow just carrying on throughout the next few days,

01:35whilst it starts to change in terms of the wind direction further north.

01:39High pressure builds in across Greenland and Iceland, and that's going to push

01:45these fronts through and eventually bring colder air.

01:49But for Wednesday itself, we've got two weather fronts lying across the UK.

01:53One stalled across the north of Scotland and one lingering across the south-east and in fact

01:59pushing further rain back in by the end of the day across many southern parts.

02:03So a gap in between, some decent sunny spells for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland,

02:07Northern England, North Wales.

02:08But either side of that, some wet weather.

02:10Heavy rain continuing across the north of Scotland, Orkney, but clearing across Shetland later on.

02:16And then it turns colder in the far north.

02:18Meanwhile, this band of rain continues across the southern third of the UK.

02:23Again, heavy and persistent over western and south-western hills, especially Dartmoor.

02:28Now that's going to push through, but by this stage, with high pressure building over Iceland,

02:33we're going to see the winds change significantly across the north of Scotland.

02:36And you can see the temperature contrast.

02:38Sutherlies in the south bringing exceptionally mild air both by day and by night,

02:42whilst in the north a significant drop in temperatures through Thursday and lasting into the weekend.

02:49And that contrast, well that's causing a weather front in the middle to bring some heavy rain.

02:56A little bit of uncertainty, increasingly so during Thursday and Friday, about the placement

02:59of that boundary and the heaviest rain.

03:02But as you can see, it's going to mostly affect Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland,

03:06the central swathe of Northern England, the Midlands and Wales.

03:09Drier to the south, but very mild, 16-17 Celsius.

03:13To the north, it is turning colder across Northern Scotland.

03:16Some of these showers will be falling as sleet and snow over the tops of the mountains.

03:20Hail at lower levels and feeling cold in the wind,

03:24even if the skies are a lot brighter compared with further south.

03:27Now those outbreaks of rain across the middle, well they'll shift position later this week.

03:32But the boundary is uncertain between the cold air in the north and the very mild air to the south.

03:38And to illustrate this, here's the temperature trend for Southampton,

03:42not just from one computer model simulation, but from 51, the European model ensemble.

03:48Now, as you can see, where these model simulations are bunched together,

03:53it is a darker shading where they are spread out.

03:57A lot more uncertainty in terms of the temperature,

04:00and it's difficult to say for sure what the temperature will be.

04:03But we can, from this graph, deduce a few things.

04:07Firstly, this week is very mild.

04:10From Tuesday afternoon through to Friday,

04:12the temperatures barely dip below 14 Celsius both by day and by night in the south of England.

04:18Then, most of the models do drop things off into the weekend.

04:22You can see this shading here.

04:24But not all the models, about a third of them, also keep things mild.

04:29So there's the uncertainty, most likely turning colder into the weekend,

04:33back to mid to high single figures by and large.

04:36But not necessarily certain for that because there are some models that keep it mild.

04:42More on why that's happening in a moment.

04:44Inverness shows a very different temperature trend.

04:46Yes, it starts off relatively mild, but not as mild as Southampton.

04:52Then we've got this temperature drop,

04:54and much more confidence about the temperature drop occurring during Thursday.

04:58And this extreme contrast between north and south of the UK for Thursday and Friday.

05:05And greater confidence that it's going to stay cold in Inverness, in the north of Scotland,

05:10through the weekend and into the start of next week.

05:12So, big temperature contrasts by Friday.

05:16And in between that mild air to the south and the colder air further north,

05:21we do have the band of rain.

05:22Like I say, some uncertainty about its placement at this stage.

05:26But it looks likely that Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England will be cold,

05:29albeit bright, with some wintry showers over the hills of Northern Scotland.

05:34But otherwise, plenty of sunny spells, so cold and crisp after a frosty start.

05:38Further south, 15, 16 Celsius, possibly even higher if that front's a little further north.

05:44It could be 17 or 18 Celsius in the south on Friday.

05:47That's what I mean by these significant temperature contrasts.

05:50And as we go into the weekend, what looks most likely is that the high pressure to the north

05:56will elbow its way further south and lead to colder but brighter weather across most parts.

06:04However, there is that question mark over the far south and south west.

06:08It may well stay cloudy, damp and much milder here,

06:13depending on the placement of this low and this high.

06:16So, the weekend for many looks brighter.

06:19Overnight frosts, but sunny spells by day, and plenty of dry weather.

06:24But, also colder in the south, especially the far south and south west,

06:29it may well stay mild and damp.

06:31That's the source of uncertainty at the moment.

06:34But, of course, we'll keep you updated on how that develops over the next few days.

06:38Bye-bye.

Week Ahead 10/11/2025 – Very mild south, turning colder north

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