00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the upcoming week. It might still be meteorological
00:04winter but there is a whiff of spring in the air this week and that's because at the time
00:10of recording we have a warm front crossing the UK west to east bringing some cloud and
00:15rain but then the cold front that follows slows up as it reaches northwestern parts
00:20of the UK on Tuesday and into Wednesday allowing this broad warm sector in between the warm
00:26and cold front to develop and well southwesterly winds mild moist winds encompass much of the
00:33country why widely above average temperatures up and down the UK but the highest temperatures
00:39will peak on Wednesday towards the east and southeast towards the northwest actually there
00:46will be spells of rain as that cold front stalls and this graphic here gives you the impression
00:51of the northwest southeast gradient in rainfall Monday to Wednesday very little rain towards
00:57the southeast you can see by the lighter blues that correspond with the quay some white areas
01:02indicating no rain for the three-day period but towards the west the Welsh mountains northwest
01:07England northern Ireland western Scotland in particular a good deal more rain and that's
01:12because of that stalling cold front now initially on Tuesday it's frost free because of the mild
01:17south to southwesterly breeze but there's a lot of cloud around that cloud will be thickest towards
01:23the west and northwest and it will bring increasingly persistent and heavy spells of rain into western
01:28and northern Scotland by the afternoon so bits and pieces of rain elsewhere but actually for much of
01:33eastern parts of northern Ireland eastern Scotland many areas across England and Wales it's dry
01:39and it's increasingly bright you can see large gaps in the cloud opening out across parts of Wales into the
01:45midlands east Anglia and the south and that will allow temperatures to push to well above average 15
01:52perhaps 16 celsius in the southeast we're in the double figures though widely across the UK even where
01:57it's raining across western Scotland eight or nine in the far north of Scotland into Wednesday not much
02:04change at first we've still got clear spells and a lot of dry weather across eastern and central parts
02:09but towards the west the rain sets in and the rain that we've had across western Scotland persists
02:15certainly but it pushes into northern Ireland northern and northwest England parts of Wales and the
02:20southwest through the day on and off rain here meanwhile it is generally dry and bright for the east and
02:27southeast if not sunny and that will allow those temperatures to rise even higher than Tuesdays like
02:33I say the warmest day of the week 17 celsius most likely but a 20 chance we'll see 18 to
02:3919 celsius
02:40in the east and southeast not record-breaking temperatures but exceptionally mild
02:45nonetheless now the rain in the west and the northwest that tends to eventually track across
02:53the whole of the country as we go into Wednesday night and Thursday initially the weather front is
02:58slow but it gets pushed along by the end of Thursday by an increasingly active jet stream that jet stream
03:05coming across the Atlantic and for the second half of the week will allow these systems to move through
03:11at a greater pace they'll also allow those temperatures to ever weigh back towards average
03:16by the weekend now this low is the low that's causing the nor'easter that we're seeing across parts of
03:22New
03:23York and other parts of north eastern parts of the USA and southeastern parts of Canada at the time of
03:31recording
03:31it pushes into the Atlantic it's not going to be containing snow by this stage just spells of rain
03:36and actually it's this feature that is of more concern for Thursday and into Friday because it may
03:43well get picked up by the jet stream and develop into something of consequence and even if it doesn't
03:49it's going to bring a spell of rain some uncertainties about the development of this feature
03:55first on Thursday it's showery across many parts of the UK a brisk and gusty wind first thing
04:01will strengthen across western and southwestern parts with the risk of coastal gales
04:05by the end of the day and increasingly wet weather develops for many areas heavy showers more likely
04:11towards the northwest more persistent wet weather further south still mild but not feeling as spring-like
04:20because of the return of wet and windy weather however this is one scenario and this scenario is based
04:27on the latest Met Office model that has a flat feature running some persistent rain across southern
04:32parts of the UK on Thursday and into Thursday night but other computer simulations develop it more into a
04:40deeper area of low pressure as per this simulation which shows more coherent low developing across Ireland
04:48and pushing into the Irish Sea eventually that scenario would bring more widely and more north shifted rain to other
04:57parts of England
04:59Wales Scotland Northern Ireland and stronger winds with more widespread gales particularly around western coast but perhaps some inland gales
05:07as well
05:08so those are the two scenarios we're facing and it all comes down to how much the jet stream develops
05:14this area of low pressure
05:15or how much it just avoids developing it and keeps it as a flat area of rain running across southern
05:22parts of the country
05:22either way it's out of the way for the start of Friday brighter skies return for many sunny spells but
05:29also frequent showers coming in
05:30from the west and those temperatures continue to start to leak away with average temperatures returning to northern parts of
05:39the UK
05:39only a touch above average towards the south and with the return of average temperatures some mountain snow likely with
05:47some of these showers and with the gusty wind feeling a little bit colder at the same time
05:51those showers move through on Friday night the next system starts to arrive for the weekend now we're in this
05:58setup where we've got a fairly
06:00flat jet stream across the Atlantic pushing these systems in one after the other but
06:06one notable difference compared with the last six weeks or so is that we don't have anything to the east
06:10blocking these systems the jet stream runs
06:13straight through and that's good news in some respects although we'll still have spells of rain
06:19they'll move through quickly on Saturday Sunday and into early next week there are some hints
06:26that by the end of the first week of March the first week of meteorological spring
06:30the weather will become a little less unsettled but for now we do have further bouts of rain
06:35even if the next couple of days are significantly milder than normal
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06:44bye bye
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