00:00 Hello and welcome to the Metal Fist 10-Day Trend. This year we saw the earliest spring
00:04 for 128 years, although I'm not talking about the UK's weather, I'm talking about the spring
00:09 equinox which was just after 3am on the 20th March. The time and date vary each year depending
00:16 on leap years. This year it was the earliest for 128 years. No consequences for the UK's
00:21 weather which is about to turn colder. This is the temperature difference compared with
00:26 the March minimum average. Friday night's temperatures will be well below average for
00:32 the time of year. But the cause of that is colder weather coming in from the north west.
00:37 Ahead of that colder weather actually for many Thursday will be a mild day, especially
00:43 for southern and south eastern parts of the UK. Towards the north west it turns unsettled,
00:48 wet and windy as the weather front moves through. Once that moves through we're into this colder
00:52 and more showery airflow for Friday and throughout much of the weekend as well. It's going to
00:57 feel colder and there will be a mixture of sunny spells and showers. So let's put a bit
01:02 of detail on that. Thursday starts off dry across much of England and Wales, a few dribs
01:06 and drabs of rain across northern England. But really it's Scotland and Northern Ireland
01:09 where we see the wet and windy weather moving through, some persistent and heavy rain at
01:14 times especially for western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The wind is picking up as
01:18 well. But for the southern half of the UK actually that front stays clear until the
01:23 end of the day and so some sunny spells and in any sunny spells out of the breeze it's
01:28 going to feel pleasant enough. 15, 16, 17 Celsius possible. Feeling colder as we end
01:35 Thursday towards the north west and that fresher air arrives from the west north west. The
01:40 front moves south, some persistent rain overnight for northern England into the midlands, Wales
01:46 and the south west. Just about avoiding the south east through the hours of darkness and
01:52 the front tends to peter out so not a great deal of rain on it by the time we start off
01:56 Friday. But it does tend to keep those temperatures a little higher across southern parts whilst
02:01 we're back into the colder air further north. Blustery showers pushing into Scotland and
02:05 Northern Ireland for Friday and then fast forward a few hours into Friday afternoon
02:10 and here it looks with that showery airflow across much of the UK. Some heavy downpours
02:15 for Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland in particular. A cold wind blowing
02:20 with those showers falling as snow above 4-500 metres for the Scottish mountains. But those
02:26 showers not really reaching much of the midlands, East Anglia, the south and south east although
02:31 the rain could just about linger there throughout much of the day in the far south east a bit
02:35 of uncertainty at the timing of the clearance of that. You'll notice that the temperatures
02:39 are certainly down across southern parts of the UK and feeling cold in the north as well.
02:46 However, we're only back to close to average, perhaps a degree or two below in places I'd
02:52 say central and northern Scotland most prone to significantly below average temperatures
02:56 on Friday. But otherwise we're into this colour here compared to the March average max so
03:01 within about 3 degrees or so. Contrast that with Friday night's temperatures which will
03:05 be significantly below average. These are the actual values expected in main urban centres,
03:12 one or two Celsius generally. But in rural spots out of the breeze with clear spells
03:17 certainly a frost expected for the start of Saturday. So be aware of that if you are a
03:22 keen gardener. Now, we're into that showery airflow for much of the weekend. Low pressure
03:28 situated to the north of the UK bringing some strong winds, perhaps gales for a time before
03:32 it moves into the North Sea. And by the start of Sunday, still some showers in the east
03:37 clearing before the next area of rain moves in from the west. But in between this brief
03:42 ridge of high pressure bringing a very subtle settled spell for a time on Sunday. Saturday
03:49 isn't going to be settled. It's going to be blustery. It's going to feel cold in that
03:53 wind 11 Celsius in the south, 6 to 8 in the north. And those showers will be lively potential
03:59 for rumbles of thunder, some hail as well. They'll be moving through swiftly because
04:03 of the breeze. Some brighter spells in between, some rainbows to enjoy. And those showers
04:08 falling as snow once again over the Scottish mountains. But nothing untoward about that
04:15 for the time of year. The showers more confined to eastern parts of the UK for Sunday. Again,
04:20 feeling cold particularly along that North Sea coast. Further south and southwest, actually
04:24 the temperatures a degree or two up because we're going to start to see the winds changing.
04:29 However, those winds begin to bring thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain in by the end
04:33 of the day across parts of Cornwall, a sign of what's to come for Monday and Tuesday.
04:39 And this all to do with perturbations in the jet stream as we go through into the start
04:43 of next week. We'll look at this from Saturday. And we've got this trough in the jet stream.
04:50 That's responsible for the colder airflow and the showery conditions. But upstream,
04:55 a big ridge in the jet stream for Saturday doesn't quite affect us that much because
05:01 what happens is this other branch of the jet stream just slices across it, cuts off that
05:07 ridge and we end up with once again a south shifted jet stream for the start of next week,
05:13 sending once again south shifted low pressure, which once again brings us more rainfall for
05:21 the start of next week. Some uncertainty about the timings of the rain moving in later
05:25 Sunday and into Monday. But well, there's a high degree of confidence that on Monday
05:30 and in fact into Tuesday and Wednesday, we're going to have low pressure pretty much over
05:34 the UK, bringing us spells of rain and showers, especially across western and southern parts
05:40 of the country. So these are most likely weather patterns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday
05:47 sees low pressure centred over the UK. This is from the European model. There's the UK
05:51 and that low, as you can see by the bright colours, bringing plenty of rain or showers
05:55 and temperatures a little below average for the time of year. Likewise, for Wednesday,
06:01 the initial low moves away, but the next low hot on its heels, moving in from the northwest
06:06 to bring more spells of rain and showers, especially across western parts. Not good
06:10 news, of course, for many people who are fed up with the relentless rainy weather. And
06:16 I'm afraid to say that this is how things look for later next week. Yet again, low pressure
06:22 in charge, a high degree of confidence that low pressure will be closer to the UK for
06:27 much of next week. A little bit of uncertainty by the latter half of next week about the
06:32 position of the low, whether it will be to the northwest or more towards the southwest.
06:36 But either way, it's likely to be unsettled with winds coming from the southwest, perhaps
06:41 increasing the temperatures gradually through next week, but keeping things unsettled with
06:45 the wettest weather in the west and the southwest, perhaps drier at times to the north and northeast.
06:51 In between the bands of rain and showers, there will always be some drier interludes,
06:56 some March sunshine, which is strengthening and is going to feel a little more pleasant
07:01 than what we've experienced throughout much of winter. But nevertheless, no sign of any
07:05 prolonged settle spell through to the start of the Easter weekend. And this just illustrates
07:12 those trends. This is for a central part of the UK. We've got the rainfall trend on the
07:16 top. And as you can see, for each day going out to the next two weeks, a lot of rainfall
07:21 expected each day, either in the form of rain, longer spells of rain or showers. And the
07:27 wind direction, this is interesting, switches from most likely westerly winds. That's what
07:32 this is showing for Friday and Saturday, more towards south or southwesterly winds for later
07:37 next week. And that has an impact on temperatures. This is the temperature trend, the average
07:42 maximum temperature shown in red, the average minimum temperature shown in blue, and the
07:46 boxes show the likely range on each day. And as you can see, it's most likely to be just
07:51 a bit below average for the weekend and the start of next week before perhaps a slight
07:56 increase towards the end of the week and into the Easter weekend to above average. Although
08:02 if you've got spells of rain and showers, the temperatures are fairly academic. It's
08:06 not going to feel particularly warm. So, after all that soggy news, I just want to end with
08:12 something perhaps a little more optimistic. And this shows the most likely weather patterns
08:17 for each day out to the next two weeks. Now, don't worry too much about the details here.
08:23 Just think of it as blue colours indicate that low pressure is close to the UK. Red
08:28 and oranges indicate that higher pressure is closer to the UK. And you can see through
08:33 the Easter weekend just some indication there of the blues getting smaller and the reds
08:40 getting bigger, but a lot of uncertainty by this stage in terms of which exact weather
08:45 patterns are going to be in control of our weather. It's just a hint there that things
08:49 may begin to settle down through the Easter weekend. And the most likely place for that
08:54 more settled weather would be towards the north of the country because these red colours
08:59 are indicative of a Scandinavian high pressure or high pressure centred to the north of the
09:04 country. So, perhaps the south keeping the more unsettled changeable showery weather
09:09 for longer through the weekend of Easter, the north perhaps settling down a little sooner.
09:15 But of course, it's a long way off and we'll keep you updated right here on all the spring
09:20 weather to come right here at the Met Office. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and you'll
09:25 never miss an update. Bye-bye.
09:26 Thank you.
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