- 2 days ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 03/06/2026.
The jet stream is definitely back and sending lows our way, expect showers and some gusty winds and then Alex looks for signs of something warmer at the end of next week.
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
The jet stream is definitely back and sending lows our way, expect showers and some gusty winds and then Alex looks for signs of something warmer at the end of next week.
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, it's the first 10-day trend of June. There's not much flaming about this forecast.
00:06There is quite a bit of rain involved, however. If we start with a look at the big picture
00:10and the fast-moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, the jet stream. It's in a fairly
00:16classic position, but maybe not for June. This is a fairly typical position, perhaps for winter or
00:22for autumn. It's quite south-shifted for the summer months, and it's certainly fairly active
00:27for this time of year as well. It's pushing along low-pressure systems, this one dominating our
00:33weather for the next couple of days. This one will control our weather as we head into the early part
00:39of next week. But in between times, the low pressure that's going to have most of our attention is this
00:45one forming off the coast of North America and intensifying as it relates and interacts with
00:51that jet stream, particularly as we head through Thursday and into Friday. It crosses over the jet
00:56stream and interacts with what we call the left exit part of this jet streak and intensifies
01:02during Thursday and the first part of Friday. The crucial time then, through Friday and into
01:08Saturday, as it approaches the UK, kind of disengages a little bit with the jet stream,
01:13which means it perhaps won't be as intense as it comes across the UK as some of the models were
01:18suggesting it could be just a couple of days ago. Nevertheless, it is still likely to bring us
01:22a spell of wet and windy weather as we go through the weekend. After that, as I said, all eyes
01:29actually
01:30on this area of low pressure, which is currently sitting between Iceland and Greenland. It doesn't
01:34really interact with the jet stream as much. It just gradually kind of gets pushed along in the flow
01:40behind this weather system as we go towards Monday. More on that a little bit later on. Before both of
01:48those
01:48low pressure systems arrive, we've got another one for Thursday. Dominating the scene, plenty of isobars
01:54on the chart, suggesting it's going to be unseasonably windy once more. In fact, Thursday's
02:00weather fairly similar to Tuesday's weather. Close to the low, so across Scotland, the isobars are more
02:06spaced out. So here the winds will be lighter, which means the showers will be slow moving, whereas
02:10further south, the showers will be zipping through on a brisk wind. And it's here where they're likely to be
02:15quite intense with hail and thunder mixed in, but they will zip through. Whereas with the slow moving
02:21showers across central and northern Scotland, we could see the rainfall totals being higher, even
02:26though they won't be as intense just because there'll be more slow moving. It's staying showery as we head
02:32into Friday, but not as many showers. A better chance of a drier day, and certainly parts of the east
02:38may not see many showers at all. So it could be completely dry here and further west, although there will
02:42be some showers and a brisk and cool breeze. Well, there won't be the same intensity to the showers
02:49as there will be on Thursday, and there'll be longer, drier and brighter smells to be had as well.
02:55That's thanks to this weak-looking ridge of high pressure that's trying to come in as we go through
03:01the course of Friday. Following on in the footsteps of that is that low pressure we saw earlier. As I
03:06said,
03:06details really dependent on its exact interaction with the jet stream as we approach Friday and into
03:13Saturday, because it could still be quite a potent low as it comes in. Quite a lot of isobars packed
03:18in there, particularly its southern flank, so in western parts of the UK, as we go through Friday
03:23night and into Saturday. And these weather fronts will also be bringing spells of rain. But the fact
03:28that it's a little bit more detached from the jet stream now suggests it might not be as intense,
03:34as I say, some of the models were suggesting just a couple of days ago. Now, that's the Met Office
03:40main model projection for Saturday. But if you watch the 10-day trend often enough or know much
03:47about meteorology, you'll know that's not necessarily how we do a lot of our medium-range weather
03:51forecasting. We use these. We use ensembles. These are the posted stamps where you run the computer
03:56model many, many times with slightly tweaked initial conditions. Now, this is a bit small,
04:04so let's zoom in a little bit. Just going to show you, highlight the differences. Some of the models,
04:08like number 23, actually have quite a deep area of low pressure here, whereas others, say number 13,
04:15they're kind of breaking up into two areas of low pressure and don't have the same pattern. So there's
04:19a bit of uncertainty as we head into the weekend. This is the European ensemble projection. And the
04:26European model is slightly different to the Met Office one. Another way of looking at this, this is
04:30plotting all of those ensemble members as individual spots. And the colour of the spot represents how
04:38intense the low is, how deep that area of low pressure is. And you can see the slightly less deep
04:43ones with the central pressure over a thousand. Hectapascals or millibars are a little, generally,
04:47a little further south. And the slightly more intense ones, the more turquoise colours are a
04:53little bit further north and west. So again, depending on the exact interaction with that jet
04:58stream will determine just how deep that area of low pressure is. There's a closer view of it,
05:04almost the European model kind of splitting it into two areas, almost. So perhaps without one area of
05:10intensity, but nevertheless, still likely to bring some wet and windy weather into the weekend.
05:16One of the crucial factors for the weekend will be the strength of the wind. And this plot is the
05:22probability of winds over 40 knots or 46 miles an hour on Saturday morning. You can see that the highest
05:27chance of those stronger winds are likely across the South Republic of Ireland into South Wales and
05:34southwest England. 46 miles an hour, nothing exceptional, but it is quite unusual for this time of year.
05:40And with a lot of events going on on Saturday, it's Saturday in June. So yeah, that could cause
05:46some issues. So it's certainly something that we need to keep a close eye on at this stage. But a
05:50lot, again,
05:51will depend on the exact interaction and where that low pressure is sitting. So if you do have plans for
05:57Saturday, particularly if wind could impact them, then you want to keep up to date with the forecast. So yes,
06:03there will be some gusty winds around through the course of Saturday, and there will also be some
06:08rain. This is showing the 24-hour rainfall accumulations as we go through Saturday. Notice
06:13it's highlighting western areas, and particularly hills, the hills of western Scotland, northwest
06:17England, and parts of Wales. Again, the hillier ground, but also northern Ireland, likely to bear the
06:22brunt as that weather system comes in with rainfall. If we move through the 24-hour rainfall totals of
06:28Sunday, you can also see again, highlighting this area, southwest Scotland, northwest England,
06:35perhaps parts of north Wales, with the rainfall totals building up over the hills, especially here.
06:40But if those two rainfall events Saturday and Sunday coincide in this area, then that could amount
06:46to quite a bit of rain falling through the weekend. So as well as the winds, that is another area
06:50we need
06:51to keep a close eye on. Again, that's the Met Office projection, and not all the models are agreeing.
06:56This is now showing something similar. The rainfall totals building up through the whole weekend
07:01with the American model here, European ECMWF model here. These are kind of in alignment,
07:07showing that, again, western areas seeing the most in terms of rainfall, but they're not really
07:11showing the same amount of the peak, really, that the Met Office model is showing, which is kind of
07:16perhaps a worst-case scenario in that zone across north Wales, the hills of northwest England,
07:22and southwest Scotland. But again, highlighting the same areas that western areas likely to see the
07:28heaviest and most persistent rain through the weekend. So there's that low clearing away from
07:32Saturday. But then another little feature comes in on Sunday. And again, its interaction with the
07:37jet stream will be crucial as to how much rain we see. But we could see, again, fair bits coming
07:43in
07:44across northwest England and parts of north Wales, depending, again, on that exact interaction with
07:49the jet stream. So what do we know about the weekend? Likely to stay on the cool side with,
07:53at times, some gusty winds. Unusually gusty for June, certainly. There will be spells of rain
07:59crossing the country with the driest weather in the east and the heaviest rain in more western parts.
08:06What about as we head into next week? Well, still low pressure on the scene. So we are likely to
08:11see
08:11further spells of wet and windy weather. High pressure is trying to topple in on Monday's chart
08:15across parts of the south. But this low also packing the isobar, suggesting some quite windy
08:21conditions across northern Scotland. Remember, though, this one is coming from a different
08:25source. This one is coming from further north. So it's kind of forming in the cooler air over the
08:32next few days. Whereas the one that's coming in for Saturday has much warmer air tied into it
08:38because it's coming from much further south. So this one is a cooler air feature and it's not
08:43interacting. It's not developing in the same way. It's not as close to the jet stream. The jet is
08:48just kind of nudging it in as we go towards Monday. So a different beast in many ways, but still
08:54likely
08:54to be bringing some wet and windy conditions across Scotland, parts of northern Ireland. The jet stream
09:00by this stage has dipped a bit further south, not as strong as it is at the moment. But nevertheless,
09:06potential for another interaction with another low here, which is likely to move up across the country
09:12as we go through the middle of next week. Here's the probability plot for the different flavors of
09:18weather and how likely they are as we go through next week, dominated by the Manchester City blue,
09:25which is southwesterly dominated. It means low pressure systems coming in generally from the
09:30Atlantic. Now, a couple of days ago, there were stronger signals for some higher pressure. And as we
09:37go towards the end of next week, well, there are some oranges on the chart suggesting that high pressure
09:41might be closer. There's certainly a chance of it, but it's still not the most likely scenario that is
09:47still most likely to be dominated by southwesterly winds and more cyclonic weather patterns or low
09:53pressure systems. So for Tuesday, this is the most likely weather pattern with low sitting somewhere
09:58out to the west. With a southwesterly wind, it does mean eastern areas get a bit of brightness,
10:03often a bit warmer than average, but not far behind. The second and third most likely scenarios,
10:10keeping things generally on the cool side. Wednesday, again, the pressure patterns are
10:15quite similar, generally dominated by low pressure and southwesterly winds. As we head towards the
10:20end of the week, well, there are some signs, particularly the second most likely and the
10:26third most likely, that higher pressure could start to influence things. And that might just lift
10:31the temperatures, particularly if the high locates itself to the east, and that could waft up some
10:36warmer air. But yes, at this stage, that is just a possibility, as we saw earlier, more likely overall
10:44that the southwesterly will dictate what goes on. So overall, next week likely to stay changeable and
10:50cool. Certainly for the first half of the week, there'll be further spells of showery rain whizzing
10:55across the country on those brisk winds. But perhaps that's all it is at this stage, something a bit
11:01drier and warmer towards the end of next week. As always, for the day to day details, make sure you
11:08stay up to date with everything from the Met Office by following us across social media. And if you
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